Bristol City vs Norwich city
(Sat 7th Nov, 12:30PM UK - Sky Sports+)
With the third and fourth tier clubs taking a break from their league duties to tussle with non-league’s finest in the FA Cup, all EFL-watching eyes turn to this weekend’s Championship action. Our Big Bet this week focuses on a mid-table clash between two of the league’s most disappointing sides as Norwich travel to face Bristol City. The Canaries were backed by many to finally return to the top flight this season after they nearly scraped into the play-offs last time out despite a disastrous start to the campaign that nearly saw them relegated. Philippe Clement dug them out of a hole, but this season has been far from plain sailing for his side. Bristol City were also an outside shout to have a run at promotion this year after an exciting summer window that saw them bring in a new ‘keeper, two of the most exciting strikers in the Football League, and the gaffer that had just taken Lincoln City to an 103 point season. However, as is often the case when you make wholesale changes, there have been some teething issues. We’re just about a third of the way through the season now, and it’s about time to put up or shut up. Are either of these teams actually any good? A win in this week’s Big Bet would be a great place for them to start proving their credentials.
The Canaries and the Robins both have their issues, but maybe they should get their beaks together and share some tips that could improve them both. Norwich have only been outscored by three sides in the division so far, but have been haemorrhaging goals at the back and have the 5th leakiest defence. Bristol, on the other hand, have the 10th best defence in the league and have kept it pretty tight at the back, but have only scored 19 goals, making them the 6th least productive offence in the second tier. The Robins’ goalscoring record is particularly shocking given the quality of the players, and the funds parted with to acquire them, that they brought into their frontline this summer. That is, of course, with the caveat that Bristol are yet to redeem their Derby County Voucher, which is good for any 4 goals of your choosing either at home or to take away, which would see them jump significantly in the goalscorer rankings. Whereas, on the flip side, Norwich’s defensive stability was never fantastic, but some of their player’s seem to have dropped off a cliff in the off season. I’m looking at you Jose Cordoba.
Here we have a classic case of two sides that just need a win. They both have the tools amongst their squad to put together a serious Championship team, but unless they start to show it then they might as well not have bothered bringing them in in the first place. Don’t know who to back? Let me give you a little bit of context to hopefully help you make an informed decision.
Form
Bristol City have been quite poor, really. They have 3 losses, a win and a draw in their last 5 games, but do the results tell the full story?
The start of that run was a 1-0 loss at home to Blackburn Rovers, in which the visiting ‘keeper put on one of the best displays of shot stopping that you’re ever likely to see. It was bulletproof stuff. City had 20 shots and failed to score, while they allowed their opponents to score with their only shot on target. You can’t plan for a goalkeeping display of that quality, but questions have to be asked if you’re letting a team play that poorly on your home turf and coming away with nothing. Next up was a 1-0 home loss to Sheffield United and a 0-0 draw at Stoke in which Bristol created nothing and never looked like scoring, rough. They finally got a win under their belts away at Bolton, with two late goals flipping the score to 3-2, and deservedly so as they had 9 shots on target and created 3.33 xG on their travels. Their most recent result was another wet performance, this time in a 2-1 loss at home to Wolves that saw them take the lead in the first half before being pummelled into eventual submission for the remainder of the evening.
To cut a long story short, Bristol City don’t create enough, and they don’t stop their opponents from scoring well enough either. They’ve lost their last 3 home games without putting up a fight, and Norwich will certainly be smelling blood as they approach Ashton Gate on Saturday morning.
The Canaries form has been topsy-turvy all season, but they’ve been great value for the neutrals. A run of 5 straight Championship losses, including two that finished 4-3, was arrested recently and they’ve now propelled themselves up the table with 3 wins on the bounce. That’s all well and good, but those victories did come against three of the poorest sides in the league in Charlton, Watford and Derby. Charlton can’t buy a win at the moment, and saw their early lead evaporate as Norwich ran out 3-1 winners at the Valley. Watford are all over the place but still managed to go 2-0 up at Carrow Road before being pegged right the way back and losing 3-2, before Norwich travelled to Derby in midweek and didn’t even have to play that well to beat the worst Championship team I have ever seen by 4 unanswered goals. 10 goals in three games, with some great comebacks in there to show resilience and team spirit, it’s all looking up for Philippe Clement. This weekend is their first test against a half decent side since this run of form began, can they carry it on now they’re facing players that are actually trying? They’ll be at a slight advantage as they didn’t have to run at all at Pride Park as their hosts just meandered around the pitch all game…
Head-to-head
Bristol City have been quite poor, really. They have 3 losses, a win and a draw in their last 5 games, but do the results tell the full story?
The start of that run was a 1-0 loss at home to Blackburn Rovers, in which the visiting ‘keeper put on one of the best displays of shot stopping that you’re ever likely to see. It was bulletproof stuff. City had 20 shots and failed to score, while they allowed their opponents to score with their only shot on target. You can’t plan for a goalkeeping display of that quality, but questions have to be asked if you’re letting a team play that poorly on your home turf and coming away with nothing. Next up was a 1-0 home loss to Sheffield United and a 0-0 draw at Stoke in which Bristol created nothing and never looked like scoring, rough. They finally got a win under their belts away at Bolton, with two late goals flipping the score to 3-2, and deservedly so as they had 9 shots on target and created 3.33 xG on their travels. Their most recent result was another wet performance, this time in a 2-1 loss at home to Wolves that saw them take the lead in the first half before being pummelled into eventual submission for the remainder of the evening.
To cut a long story short, Bristol City don’t create enough, and they don’t stop their opponents from scoring well enough either. They’ve lost their last 3 home games without putting up a fight, and Norwich will certainly be smelling blood as they approach Ashton Gate on Saturday morning.
The Canaries form has been topsy-turvy all season, but they’ve been great value for the neutrals. A run of 5 straight Championship losses, including two that finished 4-3, was arrested recently and they’ve now propelled themselves up the table with 3 wins on the bounce. That’s all well and good, but those victories did come against three of the poorest sides in the league in Charlton, Watford and Derby. Charlton can’t buy a win at the moment, and saw their early lead evaporate as Norwich ran out 3-1 winners at the Valley. Watford are all over the place but still managed to go 2-0 up at Carrow Road before being pegged right the way back and losing 3-2, before Norwich travelled to Derby in midweek and didn’t even have to play that well to beat the worst Championship team I have ever seen by 4 unanswered goals. 10 goals in three games, with some great comebacks in there to show resilience and team spirit, it’s all looking up for Philippe Clement. This weekend is their first test against a half decent side since this run of form began, can they carry it on now they’re facing players that are actually trying? They’ll be at a slight advantage as they didn’t have to run at all at Pride Park as their hosts just meandered around the pitch all game…
Key Matchup
Jason Knight vs Paris Maghoma
While most of the Bristol City squad have failed to hit form so far this season, captain Jason Knight is one of the few who can hold his head high and confidently say he’s been giving his all and contributing for the team.
Knight’s game is energy in abundance. He isn’t going to score you 10 a season, or clear 10 off the line, but you’ll know when he’s not there. He buzzes around the pitch with purpose, not just running around and flying into needless challenges to look busy like some midfielders at this level, and no flashy number 10 gets a moment’s rest when Knight is on their case. Calling him a workhorse would be too reductive, however, as he has proven time and time again that he is capable of creating chances for his teammates and even scoring the occasional goal or two. Jason Knight is one of my personal favourite players currently active in the EFL, and the exact model professional that every club could do with around their squad.
Coming up against him this weekend? Paris Maghoma. Maghoma can play anywhere across the three behind the striker, and will be tasked with finding pockets of space to exploit around the edge of the Robins’ area. If he can slip clear of Knight, he is capable of the spectacular. If you haven’t seen his goal in midweek against Derby, I’d suggest you go and watch it. Ignore the standard of defending, or lack thereof, and just watch how he moves his feet. Sensational. He is one of the premier creative forces in the division, boasting both elite passing and dribbling numbers for his position and more than passing the eye test. Maghoma is a gem that stands out in a team full of technically gifted stars, and if he can make this team his own I truly believe his ceiling is much higher than Tuesday nights at Pride Park. To be fair, I think mine might be at this rate.
Preview
Clement and Skubala will be desperate to win this one. Norwich look like they might be the real deal again, but until they beat someone that isn’t a complete laughing stock, their credentials will always be in doubt. As for Bristol City, three straight losses at home simply isn’t good enough. With all the investment in the summer, hopes were high, and they risk all that positive energy being sucked from Ashton Gate if they continually fail to perform for their home fans.
I backed Bristol City as my dark horses in pre-season, apologies for the kiss of death Robins fans, but I think it might all unravel. I’m going for an away win here to compound their misery and keep the bright yellow Canaries train rolling along.
Who have you gone for? And have you been brave enough to stick any non-league games in your picks?