Blackburn vs Derby: Big Bet Preview
Credit: Keith Heaton / Shutterstock.com
Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County
(Sat 8 Nov, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports+)
Blackburn are celebrating 150 years at Ewood Park this weekend. To mark the occasion, they’re playing a testimonial against a team of their former players as Derby County bowl into town with seven ex-Rovers and the manager they poached from them last season in tow.
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It’s back to Championship football in the Big Bet this week! A huge fixture between two of the biggest clubs in the division awaits, can you decipher the form and choose the right result?
A lot was made over the summer of John Eustace raiding his former club. Derby’s gaffer left Blackburn in a play-off position to join the Rams in a relegation dogfight last season, citing problems with the ownership and board as his reason jumping ship. After survival, Eustace made moves for Blackburn’s captain Lewis Travis, as well as out of contract Andi Weimann and Danny Batth. On top of this, last seasons’ Rovers loanees Owen Beck and Dion Sanderson also chose to link up with their former boss in Derby for the 2025/26 campaign. They joined former Blackburn academy player Ryan Nyambe and their ex-superstar Chilean striker Ben Brereton Diaz to form a large contingent of Derby players who used to don the blue and white.
Safe to say, this didn’t go down well with Blackburn fans. A lot of frustration was vented at Eustace and the players for abandoning the project and leaving their team at the first sign of trouble, particularly aimed at club captain Lewis Travis. The majority of the anger was directed at the clubs’ hierarchy, however. They offered deals to a lot of these players that were never going to compete with other Championship sides, as well as refusing to back Eustace in the transfer window in search of replacements. Over the summer, the board sold the core of Blackburn’s side from under new manager Valerien Ismael, including star centre-back Dominic Hyam being allowed to leave on deadline day without being adequately replaced.
Under this ownership, it feels like a case of when and not if Blackburn are relegated to League One. The quality of this league is getting stronger year-on-year, particularly towards the bottom end, and if they keep moving on all their star players and replacing them with cheap “bargain” alternatives their luck will eventually run out and another huge club will be financially mismanaged into the third tier. The club generated around £30m in the last two years just from the sales of Adam Wharton and Sammie Szmodics alone, and looking at their current team it’s difficult to see where any of that money has wound up. Despite all this, Ismael has turned their form around and got them winning games again, and they are now well clear of the drop zone coming into this weekend’s grudge match.
The Championship has been as unpredictable as ever this season, with the sides expected to do well stuttering, a gap has been left for some of the less fancied teams to step into. Can either of these two make that jump into play-off contention? It’s hard to tell. Derby certainly seem the more likely of the two given Blackburn’s off-field issues but both have been churning out points in recent weeks against sides you’d expect them to lose to, so who knows?
Form
Green ticks all around for these two teams. Three weeks ago, they both looked destined for League One with abject showing after abject showing giving the fans nothing to hope for. Out of nothing, however, both teams have turned it around and have their fanbases casting their eyes up the table and wondering… can we?
The home side have won three on the bounce, a solid win at home to struggling Southampton was followed up by two impressive wins on the road at Leicester and Bristol City. They have been much better on their travels so far, the Southampton game is still their only win at Ewood Park in their historic 150th anniversary season. Even Sheffield United beat them.
Rovers aren’t a free-scoring side but aim to pack their own area, limiting the opposition’s chances to score. They tend to have a little less of the ball than their opponents but are very effective with it, completing more crosses than anyone else in the league so far.
Their visitors have gone one better and strung together four victories, beating both Norwich and QPR at Pride Park within a week before travelling to Bramall Lane and putting three past an abysmal Sheffield United side. They added to their streak with a late 2-1 win at home to in-form Hull midweek and now find themselves within a win of the play-offs after looking dead and buried just a month ago. What a difference a few weeks makes in football.
Derby have a middling away record; 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses so far with a net zero goal difference across those games. They’ll have to bring their A-game if they’re going to beat Blackburn on their big day out. The Rams are much more reliant on set-pieces than their opposition, 6 of their 18 goals have come from set-piece situations as well as 4 from direct free-kicks and penalties. Blackburn commit the third most fouls in the league, they’ll have to be careful not to line one up in a dangerous area for Derby to exploit.
Head-to-head
Derby fans, it’s grim reading.
The Rams haven’t managed a win at Ewood Park since September 2014, making the journey up to Blackburn seven times in the proceeding seasons and only managing a single draw. Still, records are meant to be broken, right?
In the period since Derby’s last win at Ewood there have been eight instances of this fixture at Pride Park, and Blackburn still managed to win three and draw one of those.
History is on Blackburn’s side in this fixture, it’ll be a bumper crowd for their anniversary game and if they get an early goal I can see the atmosphere dragging them through to a victory. Derby will want to make sure to put a marker down early doors to dampen the crowd’s spirits.
Key Battle
Sean McLoughlin vs Carlton Morris
This could’ve been any of the Blackburn centre halves here, I’ve just gone with the biggest of the three who has also won the most aerial duels this season. Because he’s going to need to keep that up to keep Derby’s captain at bay.
The big number nine has been on fire for his new club, another headed goal in midweek taking his tally to nine goals in just fourteen games and already surpassing the eight he scored for Luton last season.
Carlton Morris has been one of the hardest strikers to defend against at this level for a while now. He’s a big, physical presence and deceptively fast for his size, able to hold up play and bring his teammates into the game on top of being a lethal finisher when he gets the ball to feet inside the area. Only one of his nine goals this season hasn’t been a first-time finish, he doesn’t need a lot of time or room to punish you and Blackburn will have to be wary of the danger he poses teams in the Championship.
McLoughlin was brought into the club from Hull City in summer and has established himself as an imperious presence in the Blackburn backline. His prowess in the air will be necessary if his side are to stop Derby’s big frontline of Patrick Agyemang, Ben Brereton Diaz and Carlton Morris from bullying their way to a fifth consecutive victory.
The Rams’ captain has five goals in his last three outings, can McLoughlin be the one that stops his hot streak?
Preview
Two of the surprise form teams in the Championship facing off head-to-head in a landmark anniversary game for the hosts. A lot of bad blood built up between these two teams over the summer so expect fireworks and a crowd that are seriously up to the occasion. The only disappointment is a lot of Derby’s former Blackburn contingent won’t be involved at the weekend, with only Brereton Diaz starting in their last game due to fitness concerns and other players not being able to break into the starting eleven. Lewis Travis will be watching on from the sidelines hoping his decision to switch allegiances is justified further with a big win for the away side.
A tough one to call. Blackburn have Derby’s number historically but have struggled to pick up home wins this season. Both sides are in the habit of winning and there’s some extra needle in this fixture after a summer of turmoil. Derby will certainly be hoping to spoil the party at Ewood.
Who have you got? Blackburn 25/26 or Blackburn 24/25? Someone’s run has to give way in the Big Bet.
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9/10