Charlton vs Millwall: Addicks To End a 29-Year Curse?
Credit: Keith Heaton / Shutterstock.com
Charlton vs Millwall
(Sat 13 Sep, 12:30pm UK Time)
Gameweek 5 is here, and this week’s Big Bet is a huge one. We head to The Valley for the first South London Derby in 5 years, along with over 22000 spectators - the biggest crowd for 50 years in this fixture.
The Addicks came up to the Championship last season via the Play Offs and finally get the chance to avenge that 1-0 home defeat from 2020.
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The Rivalry
Charlton Athletic and Millwall are separated by less than four miles, making this one of South London’s most localised rivalries. Unlike some derbies built on long-standing animosity, this fixture is fuelled mainly by geography and local pride. Millwall supporters traditionally see West Ham as their main rivals, while Charlton fans point more toward Crystal Palace, but whenever these two meet, the intensity is unmistakable.
Millwall’s dominance in the fixture has long shaped the narrative, with many framing it as a “big brother, little brother” dynamic. For Charlton fans, the derby carries extra weight — the chance to finally end a decades-long wait for victory and reclaim bragging rights. With over 22,000 expected at The Valley, the atmosphere promises to be as fierce as the action on the pitch.
Form Guide
Charlton
Back in the Championship after last season’s play-off promotion, Charlton are still finding their feet at this level. Ruben Selles has overseen a slow start, with just two goals scored so far - the second lowest in the league above Sheffield United. Despite investing around £10 million in the summer window, including deadline-day signing James Bree, their new-look attack is yet to set the world alight in this division. The Addicks’ struggles in front of goal are compounded by the weight of history: they haven’t beaten Millwall since 1996 (Almost 30 years!), a run of 12 matches that includes seven Lions victories and five draws. Ending that barren spell in front of a packed Valley crowd would be the perfect spark for their season.
Millwall
The Lions have had a strange start to the campaign, failing to score a single goal at The Den but looking sharp away from home. Wins at Sheffield United and Norwich City have underlined their strength on the road, even if home defeats to Middlesbrough and Wrexham have left supporters frustrated. Alex Neil’s side arrive at The Valley with six points from six on their travels, and with former Charlton academy graduate Alfie Doughty and Southampton loanee Will Smallbone among their recent recruits, there’s no shortage of quality. Their away form gives them confidence heading into Saturday’s derby, where the challenge will be to extend their long unbeaten run over their South London rivals.
Tactical Battle
Charlton will look to use the energy of a sold-out Valley to play on the front foot, but their lack of goals so far suggests patience may be needed not just from their players, but also from the fanbase. Millwall however will see this as an opportunity to turn the ground against the home side and dampen the hostile atmosphere. Addicks forward Miles Leaburn will be central to their attacking approach, tasked with unsettling Millwall’s experienced back line, while creative players like James Bree and Tyreece Campbell will be expected to provide supply from wide areas. Nathan Jones’ sides are well known for their high intensity, so expect consistency pressure knowing that one mistake could swing the derby.
For Millwall, their success on the road has been built on resilience and quick transitions. Alex Neil’s team are disciplined without the ball, happy to soak up pressure before breaking forward through wide outlets like Alfie Doughty. Up top, Josh Coburn’s physicality provides a focal point that can trouble Charlton’s defence, while Will Smallbone’s passing range adds another dimension in midfield. Expect Millwall to sit compact and look to exploit Charlton on the counter, forcing the hosts into breaking down a stubborn defensive block.
The Stats
Charlton’s return to the Championship has been marked by inconsistency, with two defeats, a draw, and just a single win from their first four games. They’ve only managed two goals so far, ranking 23rd in the league in goals per match, alongside 18th in the league for possession (46.1%). They do however have good defensive organisation, only conceding 4 goals so far, including 2 clean sheets. One area that stands out for the home side is interceptions, with their 9 per match having them 5th in the league. This could prove a useful strategy to pin down the away side and feed off of the home atmosphere to apply constant pressure on the Lions’ defence.
For Millwall, it does not look too much better in an attacking sense, 3 goals scored from an xG of 6 shows a lack of cutting edge when they do get into the final third. Style wise they are very similar to Charlton, with average 46.3% possession and the same 9 interceptions per match, both of these sides try to catch the opponent out and get on the break quickly. The stats all show a very even game with maybe 1 or 2 big chances to win it, all will come down to who can be the more clinical of the two.
Big Bet Angle
Although not the biggest derby of the weekend, it is certainly the closest in terms of difficulty to predict. With a packed fixture list full of huge match-ups, this is the one where you can’t just go with the favourite, because there is no clear favourite. Millwall come here as outsiders at 11/5, but with their style of play suited to playing away, backed up by 2 away wins from 2, I think that is very generous odds. Charlton, although the bookies favourites at 27/20, have a long history of not winning in this fixture. That sort of habit is hard to shake, especially if the first 20 minutes do not go as planned and the fans start to get unnerved. Then you have the draw at 2/1, further highlighting the closeness and unpredictability of this fixture. Whatever happens, this match is sure to provide an entertaining, fiery, and nervous occasion for all involved, and makes the perfect Big Bet to make the Tipple players feel the emotions alongside the fans.
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