Liverpool vs Manchester City: Big Bet Preview
Credit: mrmichaelangelo / shutterstock.com
Liverpool vs Manchester City
(SUN 8 Feb, 4:30pm UK - Sky Sports)
Anfield plays host to yet another titanic clash between two of world football’s heavyweights this Sunday to round out the weekend’s Premier League action. Neither of these sides have lived up to the impossibly high standards they’ve set themselves in recent years, but both still have plenty to play for and just as much to lose in this week’s Big Bet!
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Despite not being at their imperious best, City are still in the title fight. A loss at Anfield could send them as many as nine points behind Arsenal and effectively end their chances at lifting a ninth Premier League trophy in sixteen years in what is widely believed to be Pep Guardiola’s final season in Manchester.
As for Liverpool, they’re currently lagging behind their rivals in the hunt for Champions League football next season with wicked whispers continuing to swirl around the stability of Arne Slot’s position at the helm. With their significant outlay on players last summer, a year without a seat at Europe’s top table could be catastrophic for the club in the long term.
They’re not quite battling it out for the title with 90+ points apiece, but they still both have their seasons on the line at Anfield this Sunday. Can Liverpool put themselves in position to reclaim their place in next season’s Champions League? Or will City pile the pressure on Arteta and drag another title fight to the final day? It’s all or nothing in this week’s Tipple Big Bet!
Form
Their performances haven’t been at the level their fans and the wider footballing public expect of them, but Liverpool have actually only lost once in their last 12 league games.
To arrest their monumental slide that led to them losing 9 from 12 in all competitions, Slot has sured his Liverpool side up and made them more pragmatic and a less open prospect for their opposition in recent weeks. The results have turned around to a point, drawing 6 and winning 5 from the proceeding 12 Premier League matches, but the level of performance has caused no end of groans from the Anfield faithful. They were at last back to their free-flowing best with their star men on song last time out against Newcastle, but are equally capable of dropping a 1-1 at home to Burnley that leaves their fans despondent.
The Reds have 4 wins in 6 in all competitions with 20 goals scored, albeit 10 of those came against Barnsley and Qarabag. Despite their issues, they have the sheer quality of player to trouble any side in the world on their day, and Pep Guardiola of all people won’t be taking this game lightly.
The Spaniard’s City side have also struggled to turn a point into three in recent weeks, and have performed in a way that is almost the antithesis of everything we’ve come to expect from one of football’s greatest ever tacticians. Absolute control has been a hallmark of Guardiola sides over the years, particularly this Manchester City team that have been so dominant domestically since his arrival. Nowadays it’s becoming evident that, while they can still start matches in complete dominance, when their grip starts to slip on a game they find it hard to regain that control. City would be top of the Premier League table had every game finished at half time this season, but 8th if only the second halves counted. On top of this, they haven’t managed a single shot on target in the second half of their last 3 league games. These are all the signs of team that have an abundance of quality, but are lacking ideas. They start well, and can win games on their first half performance in isolation, but when they’re found out they’re unable to wrestle back control. Very un-City and very un-Guardiola, perhaps this really is his last season at the club.
They’ve won just once in their last 6 league outings, and that was against Wolves. No offence to Wolves fans, but you get it. Weak draws against Sunderland, Chelsea and Brighton, a humiliating loss at Old Trafford and a capitulation from 2-0 up away at one of the worst Spurs sides in history with half their team on the physio table rounds out their recent form. It’s not looking good for Manchester City. If any game can reinvigorate Guardiola’s fighting spirit and convince him, as well as us, that City are in this title race it will be a pulsating match at Anfield against his biggest rivals from his time in English football.
Klopp may be long in the rear-view mirror, but Liverpool are still Liverpool and both of these teams usually raise their game for this fixture in particular. Who will come out swinging and light a fire under their season this weekend in the Big Bet?
Head-to-head
Writing this segment was like a trip down memory lane through some of the Premier Leagues very best games in recent memory. These two used to be amazing, didn’t they?
If it wasn’t already dead, the reverse fixture in Manchester was the game that truly killed off Liverpool’s title defence. City ran out 3-0 winners in a match that made Jeremy Doku look like the best player in the world as the Liverpool team failed to create anything of merit and defended like it was their first go at football. The lack of fight and direction from the champions was startling, and Arne Slot’s job was beginning to come into question in the following weeks - a discussion that still rages on a full three months later.
In their last 10 league meetings, Liverpool have won 3 times, there have been 4 draws and City have won the other 3. There have been 30 goals across those games, so expect action at the very least.
Neither team are in immaculate form, and their record against each other is pretty neck-and-neck. This game is balanced on a knife edge and could fall either way, will it be Slot’s Reds or Guardiola’s boys from Manchester that tip it in their favour?
Key Battle
Florian Wirtz vs Antoine Semenyo
Two boys relatively knew to the circus at the sharp end of the Premier League, and two players who are hitting form despite their teams faltering. If anyone is going to be able to move the dial in a close-run game of this magnitude, it will likely be Florian Wirtz or Antoine Semenyo.
Wirtz was the subject of mass-media derision as he struggled to find his stride in his first few months as a Liverpool player. All logic pertaining to the fact he was new to the division, playing in a team trying to work out their best system to accommodate all their superstars and the fact he was actually playing quite well - just without hitting the expected numbers - went out the window due to the massive fee Liverpool had to fork out to acquire the services of the Leverkusen star.
He’s now starting to hit his straps and has been performing closer to the level expected of a £120m forward. He’s netted 6 times and provided 3 assists in his last 11 outing in all competitions, a far better return than his goalless start to the campaign. He has also been heavily involved in everything Liverpool do going forward, having more touches and completing more passes than 96% of attacking midfielders and creating more chances per 90 than 93% of his positional peers. He sees a lot of the ball and, usually, he makes things happen with it. His partnership with fellow Bundesliga graduate Hugo Ekitike has been particularly fruitful, combining for 6 goals in the league so far, more than any other pair in the division. Wirtz is finally showing his worth, and will be one of the Premier League’s premier threats for years to come. Can he use his talents to make a difference in this weekend’s big game?
Lining up for the opposition? January acquisition Antoine Semenyo. The Ghanaian has started all 6 games since signing for City, scoring 4 and assisting 1 already, picking up exactly where he left off at Bournemouth where he had already hit 10 league goals. He’s direct and powerful and is one of the most efficient finishers in the world. He isn’t a creator of chances like Wirtz is, but he’s certainly the finisher of them. Equally adept with either foot, from range or in a compact penalty area, Semenyo has rightfully earned his big move with near unstoppable finishing prowess. It’s been all roses up to now, can he continue his strong form in his biggest game in Blue so far this weekend?
I feel like these two will be the difference makers in this game, but I also feel like they encapsulate the way both sides’ recruitment strategy has changed. In years gone by, Semenyo would’ve been the exact kind of player Liverpool would’ve brought in. Proven at this level, high-energy and over performing for a team lower down the table? Sadio Mane, Andy Robertson, Gini Wijnaldum and Diogo Jota to name just a few. City, on the other hand, tended to opt for very specific profiles of players to fit exact niches within Guardiola’s machine. Ederson and John Stones are the two immediate examples that jump to mind. With the signings of Donnarumma, Guehi and Semenyo this season, City have moved more to an oven-ready approach. Bring players in who are already at the top level and will patch the holes - however small - in their team straight away. This movement away from long-term developmental recruitment does make you think, is this Guardiola’s last hurrah? If it is, he’ll want to go out with a bang in his final meeting with his closest rivals.
Preview
I’ve got a track record of overthinking these predictions instead of just going with my gut, I hesitate to say I’m the Pep Guardiola of Tipple, but this is one I’m really stuck on.
I’ve had a home win, a draw, and an away win in my six picks all at different points throughout this week and I still have no idea what I’m going to end up landing on.
It feels like two old fighters being wheeled out for one last winner-takes-all bout. They’re a shadow of their former selves, but every now and then you see a glimpse of what made them one of the true greats of the modern era.
A City win keeps the faint flames of a title challenge flickering for a few weeks longer, and a victory for the hosts could see them gain much needed ground on Chelsea and Manchester United of all people in the race to regain Champions League status next season.
Two of the country’s very best on the biggest stage. Who do you back in this biggest of Big Bets?
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9.5/10