Birmingham vs Middlesbrough: Big Bet Preview
Credit: Rob Atherton
Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough
(Mon 2 Mar, 8pm UK - Sky Sports)
As we barrel towards the business end of what has been a fantastic Championship season, so many questions are still left unanswered. Right in the midst of some of the most contentious discourse are both of these sides. Boro lost out against Coventry and have slipped from the top of the table right back into a fight to claim that second automatic promotion spot, and Blues are one of ten sides currently positioned outside the play-offs that are still casting an optimistic eye over the results of those above them in hopes they can close the gap. Both have been tipped for big things, but not everyone can be a winner. Who will crumble under the weight of expectation with the Monday night lights beaming down? It’s do or die for Boro and Blues in this week’s Tipple Big Bet!
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Business end. The most wonderful time of the year. As gaps start to open up and the fixture list gets shorter and shorter, teams are throwing everything they have into games that could define their season.
Middlesbrough’s title hopes are dwindling, and with Ipswich, Millwall and Hull breathing down their necks they need a result in Birmingham to keep their automatic promotion push alive. Birmingham are well and truly entrenched in the chasing pack and need to start picking up results consistently to separate themselves from the rest and rise to challenge fellow League One promotion winners Wrexham for the play-off places.
It’s a massive game in the battle for promotion from the Championship on Monday night, more than befitting of this week’s Tipple Big Bet!
Form
The home side were unbeaten in eight in the league before being comprehensively dealt with 3-0 at Millwall in midweek. Of those eight games, only one was against a side currently in the top half (an impressive win over table-topping Coventry) and the rest came against lesser sides, including all of the bottom four. You can only beat what’s put in front of you, but Wednesday night was their first big test in a while and they failed it miserably. With Boro coming to town, it’s a big opportunity to stamp their authority on the play-off race with a statement win.
The visitors have had, by their lofty standards, a wobble. Their six-game winning run was halted by Coventry two weeks ago, and they have since drawn the two proceeding games to strugglers Oxford and Leicester. Monday night won’t be an easy game, but they need to shake off their big-game hangover from the loss to Coventry and get back to winning ways before they sink into the lottery of the play-offs once again.
Head-to-head
It’s been a one-sided relationship between these two sides in recent years, with Boro looking to extend a six game winning run over Blues that stretches back to March 2022. In fact, Boro have only lost at St. Andrew’s once since 2012. History does not favour the hosts on this occasion.
In the last ten meetings between this week’s Big Bet sides there have been seven wins for Middlesbrough, two for Birmingham and just the solitary draw.
The reverse fixture at the Riverside saw Middlesbrough run out 2-1 winners in a game where Birmingham felt hard done by as they created the majority of the chances. They count for nothing if you don’t take them. Boro were still reeling from losing Rob Edwards in that game and were yet to move on to their new Swedish hero, so Hellberg is yet to manage against Birmingham and Chris Davies is yet to see what a Hellberg Boro side is truly made of. Two of the most promising young coaches in the division are on full display under the Monday night lights in a game that promises to be a corker, it’s as close as you can get to a must-watch game this weekend.
All signs point to a result for the visitors, with their recent history against Birmingham alongside the fact they have the second best away record in the division behind leaders Coventry. Blues are a tricky prospect to travel to, sitting 7th in the home table, and they’ve only lost once in the league at St. Andrews all season. Their issue has just been drawing too many games, they’ve shared the points in seven games at home already this season, if they’d converted just three of those into wins we’d be talking about them being a play-off side. But then again, virtually any side in the division can pick out a few suspect results and say “if we’d only won there we’d be…”. If you don’t take your chances on the day, the Championship will chew you up and spit you right back out.
Can this Blues side buck the trend and finally claim three points at home against their bogey team? Or will Kim Hellberg’s mighty Boro continue their run of victories over this week’s hosts as they look to steamroll towards promotion?
Key Battle
Kai Wagner vs Morgan Whittaker
After a middling start to the campaign, the higher ups at Birmingham thought it was finally time to spend a bit of money and improve the squad in the January window. In comes Kai Wagner. The German left-back had been plying his trade in Philadelphia for the last seven seasons and had, by all accounts, been of of the stand out players in the division. He’d managed to hit double figure assist totals for the last three years before joining Blues and, while he only has one assist to his name in his first eleven games for the club, he’s shown just how dangerous he can be given the time.
Wagner is comfortable receiving the ball, and sees a lot more of it than the average full-back. He is very rarely dribbled past and hardly loses a duel, still boasting a 100% dribble completion rate in the Championship thus far. His real threat comes from his crossing ability, however. Amongst other full-backs, he ranks in the 90th percentile for accurate long balls, 98th for successful crosses and 94th for cross completion rate. He also has more chances and big chances created than 94% of his peers. Simply put, he is a machine on the ball and can’t be allowed the time and space to pick out a cross. All he needs now is someone to put them away.
His opponent for this week’s game will be Morgan Whittaker, who caught a lot of flack in his early Boro career after a big money move from Plymouth Argyle in January of last season. It’s fair to say that life on Teesside didn’t start how Whittaker would’ve dreamed, failing to score in his first 25 games for the club. His fortunes have now flipped and he finds himself as Boro’s top scorer so far this campaign with 11 to his name. He has proven himself deadly cutting inside from the right onto his favoured left foot, a move that Wagner will have to be on his toes to try and stop. Whittaker isn’t afraid to try his luck from range either, he shoots more often than 95% of wingers but has only hit the net from outside the area once so far this season.
After five games without a goal, it’s time for Morgan Whittaker to step back up to the plate and carry his Boro side over the line. Can Kai Wagner stop him? And will Whittaker’s tendency to hang forward allow Wagner the space to deliver a few of his trademark crosses into the area? It’s a battle to watch out for, with these two both more than capable of turning the tide in this game.
Preview
A massive matchup at the sharp end of the Championship in this week’s Big Bet!
Can Boro get back on track in their chase for automatic promotion to the Premier League? Or will Birmingham break the curse, finally beat Middlesbrough and catapult themselves up the table and right into the thick of the play-off mix?
Whatever happens, it’s sure to be dramatic.
As the close of the season approaches, are you the Middlesbrough of your Tipple friends league looking to cement yourself as top dog with a much-needed Big Bet points haul this week? Who do you trust to get you over the line in a huge Big Bet?
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9/10