Cardiff vs Lincoln: Big Bet Preview

Credit: Ceri Breeze

Cardiff City vs Lincoln City
(Sat 7 Mar, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports+)

Did somebody say title fight? While the battle for automatic promotion from the third tier looks all but dead and buried, there’s the small matter to settle of who’s actually going to lift the trophy. Whoever finishes second will always tell you that promotion is the only thing that matters and they “don’t even care” about finishing top, but it’s a massive achievement to finish top of the pile, and one that both of these sides will be chasing for the rest of the season. Lincoln were an outside bet at the start of the season that have made an amazing surge up the table as they look to make a sensational return to the second tier for the first time since the 1960/61 season! Cardiff, on the other hand, were big promotion favourites following a somewhat surprising relegation last time out, and have delivered in a season that has seen their fellow relegated compatriots fail miserably, it’s not as easy as the Welsh side make it look! Favourites or underdogs? Wales or England? Cardiff or Lincoln? The League One title is on the line in this weekend’s Big Bet!

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A rare occasion here where neither teams’ fans can really have anything to complain about this season! Although, football fans being how they are, I’m sure they’ll find something. The two best sides in the league, with the two best attacks and the joint best goal difference occupying the top two spots with a healthy gap to third, it doesn’t get much better.

Lincoln are in second, ten points clear of their nearest challengers Bolton in third place with a game in hand over the Trotters. Cardiff top the table by a point, again with a game in hand over third place. While the gap between the play-offs and these two is hardly insurmountable, the way they’ve been playing is remarkable and the run of form they’ve both been on shows no sign of slowing down. It would take nothing short of a disaster for either of these teams to be in the play-offs come May, so this game really is all about the title.

Can Cardiff make it a four point gap at the top as they look to make an instant return to the Championship? Or will the Imps add even more magic to their fairytale and go top of the tree with a huge win in Wales? 

It’s one that simply cannot be missed in this week’s Tipple Big Bet!

Form

Where do we even start here. Between them they’ve only lost three league games since the 8th of November, and one of those was Cardiff’s loss in the reverse fixture. They’ve been on unstoppable, imperious runs that have stretched for months on end as they trade blows at the top of the table.

Cardiff have won 4 from their last 5, scoring a staggering 16 goals in the process. The only blip in that run was a bizarre 5-2 loss away at Plymouth that was immediately put to bed with a 4-0 thrashing of Doncaster the following weekend. They’ve only failed to score in 3 of their 34 league games this season, and not since the 25th of October, but that was also their last Big Bet appearance! Can they handle the pressure of the spotlight? They’re also the second best home side in the division, winning 14 and losing just twice in 17 matches at the Cardiff City Stadium this season, and again they haven’t lost their since September, so it’s been a while to say the least! Overall, the Bluebirds have been nothing short of fantastic. It would take a masterclass to turn them over at home, but if any team is capable, it’s Lincoln.

It really is hard to put into words how excellent Lincoln have been this season. After finishing 11th and 17 points from the play-offs last time out, a similar middling performance was expected of them this time. Michael Skubala had different plans. The Imps started strong and haven’t looked back, leading the league on occasion and establishing themselves as one of the dominant forces in the EFL this season. They haven’t lost in the league since the 22nd of November, and have won 13 of their 17 games since then. They hold the second best away record in the division, with 28 points on the road so far this season, and they’ve won 4 from their last 5 away trips. In their last 5 matches, the Imps have won 4 and drawn once, scoring an impressive 15 and conceding an even more impressive 2, including 3 successive clean sheets. Simply put, Lincoln are a well-oiled machine that look impossible to stop on their day.

Who will come out on top? The raw talent of that Cardiff squad or the unmatched grit of the visitors?

Head-to-head

There hasn’t been much action between these two clubs as of late, mostly because while Cardiff were last sunning it up in the Premier League, Lincoln had only just been promoted from non-league into League Two.

To highlight the disparity between these two’s recent histories even further, they’ve only met on one occasion since 2001, and that was the reverse fixture earlier in the season.

Lincoln won that game 2-1thanks to a second-half goal from Sonny Bradley in a largely even game where Cardiff saw most of the ball but Lincoln created more chances. Can we expect more a repeat of that result in Wales?

Over their last 10 meetings, stretching back to 1993, Lincoln have 6 wins to Cardiff’s 3. In fact, Lincoln have won 6 of the last 7 games between these two clubs. These games were so long ago, of course, that they essentially mean nothing. But the reverse fixture is certainly one to consider when making your pick for this week’s Big Bet. As the season draws to it’s conclusion, every point counts if you’re going to finish top of your mates in your Tipple league, a big call in the Big Bet could make all the difference. Choose wisely.

Key Battle

Omari Kellyman vs Jack Moylan

With the Bluebirds’ top scorer Yousef Salech missing through injury, it’s been down to the rest of the side to spread the goals between them and pick up his slack in his absence. One man who has seriously stepped up to the plate is Chelsea loanee Omari Kellyman.

Kellyman’s career is one that could only happen in the modern game. A product of Derby’s academy, he moved to Aston Villa when the club went into administration. He made a handful of appearances before being sold for a substantial fee to Chelsea, where he has become part of their conveyor belt of loanees spread far and wide across the footballing pyramid. He recently opened up in an interview about his struggles following a serious injury that set him back in his career, so it’s been brilliant to see him really start to find his feet playing first-team football at a side as good as Cardiff. He has 5 goals and an assist in his last 6 appearances, although he was missing from the squad for the Doncaster game last time out with a groin issue that is allegedly just precautionary with such a huge game on the horizon. Typically a number ten, but also more than capable of filling in as an out-and-out striker in this Cardiff team, Lincoln will have to be wary of Kellyman’s tricky feet if he starts this weekend’s game as his dribbling ability is one of the best in the division and can easily turn a defence inside out. At his very best, Omari Kellyman is unstoppable. If Cardiff can keep him fit, he will cause no end of problems for the Imps’ backline.

Up the other end, Cardiff will have to work hard to keep Jack Moylan quiet as well. He’s on a similar run, with 6 goals and an assist in his last 8 games to help his side really put some clear air between them and the play-offs. He creates a lot of chances, both for himself and his teammates, and is an extremely capable finisher when he’s on the end of them. The Cardiff backline will have to be on red alert to stop Moylan adding to his goal tally this weekend. 

Preview

It’s easy to discredit the League One title as meaningless. For example, Ipswich finished second behind Plymouth Argyle in the year they were promoted from the third tier and one of those sides went straight up to the Premier League and the other, well, is Plymouth Argyle. That being said, football is about the fans and football is about trophies, and both sets of players would love a League One winners medal draped over their heads come May.

The title is on the line in Wales, will it be the Imps with the advantage come full-time? Or will the Bluebirds take hold and really start to fly away with their lead?

It’s a huge showdown in this week’s Big Bet!

Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9/10