Grimsby vs Swindon: Big Bet Preview

Credit: Mick Atkins

Grimsby Town vs Swindon Town
(Sat 25th Apr, 12:30PM UK - Sky Sports+)

Two games to go in League Two and it’s still all to play for from the top to the bottom of the division! Title? Undecided. Automatic promotion? Undecided. Play-offs? Undecided. Relegation? Undecided. And it looks like they’ll all go down to the final day! This week’s Big Bet focusses on the sharp end of the table, as Ian Holloway travels to face one of his many former sides in Grimsby with his Swindon team capable still of finishing inside the automatic promotion places and also outside the play-offs entirely. You’ve got to love League Two. With Grimsby in fantastic late form, and Swindon faltering after hovering around the top all season, who will come out on top in this late-season battle to keep their play-off dreams alive? It’s going down to the wire in this weekend’s Tipple Big Bet!

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Grimsby have the opportunity to finally secure a play-off place at the fourth time of asking since their promotion from non-league with a win this weekend, going one better than when they missed out on the final day last season.

5th: Notts County - 76 points
6th: Swindon - 75 Points
7th: Grimsby - 74 Points
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8th: Chesterfield - 73 Points
9th: Barnet - 70 Points

Swindon’s final day clash is against fellow play-off hopefuls Chesterfield, so a win this weekend puts Grimsby out of reach as one of Swindon or the Spireites will have to drop points.

A draw keeps things really interesting, particularly if Chesterfield pick up a win at home to Crewe this weekend. I’ll be on location at that game to keep an eye on the battle for the top seven.

Finally, a Swindon win seals their play-off place and keeps them in the final-day hunt for the top three. They’ll have one eye on each end of the play-offs hoping results go their way.

It’s all to play for and there’s so much to lose in this weekend’s Big Bet! There’s not long left to claim your place at the top of your Tipple leagues either, and it’s going to the wire between the TWITS boys too - a well-informed pick in this Big Bet could make all the difference, but don’t blame me if you go the wrong way!

Form

Grimsby’s form has been near-immaculate in the run-in, and they look to be making a perfectly timed dive into the play-off places before the door slams shut. They’ve won 6 from their last 8, the only blips coming in a huge six-pointer away at Chesterfield and a bizarre 3-1 defeat at home to bottom-placed Harrogate. David Artell has the Mariners flying, and Swindon are just the next side in their war path. He’ll be hoping his former side in Crewe can do him a favour at Chesterfield in case Grimsby can’t secure a result here.

Swindon have spent the majority of the season in and around the automatic places, and they’re still in with a shot of the coveted top three. However, with tricky final fixtures against Grimsby and Chesterfield, there’s an even bigger chance they drop from the play-offs completely with two losses to end their campaign. They’ve only won 1 from their last 5, and just 3 from their last 11, to squander their hopes of an easy ride into League One. Had they won just a couple more, they’d be comfortably in the top three with points to spare. They aren’t the Swindon from the start of the season, but they’re more than capable of beating anyone at their best. Ian Holloway, at the sprightly age of 63, is just the man you’d want to drag you out of this run and onto an unlikely promotion.

Head-to-head

The unfortunate news for the hosts is that Grimsby wins are few and far between in this fixture. The reverse fixture ended in a 2-2 draw in Swindon, all four goals coming in the first half, and Grimsby probably deserved to come away from that game with more.

Before that, there had been just 1 Grimsby win, 1 draw, and 7 Swindon wins in their previous 9 meetings. Grim Grimsby reading.

Can the Mariners flip the history books on their head and add another tally in the Grimsby wins column this weekend? Or will Swindon continue their reign of terror in Cleethorpes to put a dagger in their hosts’ play-off dreams?

Key Match Up

Cameron McJannet vs Aaron Drinan

One thing Grimsby will have to contend with is the division’s top scorer, Aaron Drinan. He has 22 league goals to his name so far this season, his career best in a single campaign and slightly eclipsing his total of 3 last season. Whatever Ian Holloway has done to him has worked, and he just can’t stop scoring in red and white. He has 2 in his last 3, including a goal in their most recent outing  against Accrington, and hasn’t let the team’s waining form stop him from hitting the back of the net. He is a devastating finisher from inside the box, but that’s not all he has to his game. He has also laid on 4 assists for his teammates in the league this year, and boasts impressive creative numbers for someone who has scored the volume of goals he has. Drinan is a huge threat to this Grimsby team, and one that has to be dealt with comprehensively. One slip up, and he’ll be sure to punish you.

One of the men tasked with keeping him at bay will be ever-present centre-half Cameron McJannet. McJannet came through the academy sat Stoke before cutting his teeth in professional football in Ireland with Derry. Since returning to England with Grimsby last season, he has been a commanding presence in the Mariners backline, particularly this year as they look to finally gain promotion to the third tier. Football is evolving and McJannet is a symbol of that. Not just your typical League Two lump, he is an accomplished passer of the ball, particularly from range, and is comfortable keeping possession for his side by dribbling into space. All of that doesn’t mean he shies away from the dirty work mind you, if there’s a loose ball within his vicinity you can be certain he’ll be stopping at nothing to clear it away down field.

The league’s top scorer is rolling into town and Grimsby have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 6 matches. It’s up to their defence to rediscover their form from the beginning of the new year that saw them keep 8 clean sheets in 9, otherwise Aaron Drinan will be sure to add to his ever-growing goal tally. 

Preview

This really is one not to be missed. Saturday’s early kick-off in League Two will inform how everyone else in the promotion race approaches their games later on, and if anyone smells blood their tails will be up. It’s down to Grimsby and Swindon to keep a level head, approach this game like any other, and deliver a result that can set them up for an historic promotion. Of course, they can’t both win, someone’s promotion hopes will take a knock this weekend. Whatever happens, Chesterfield will need to react against Crewe. I’ll be in the away end in North Derbyshire to watch the action unfold, keep your eye out for a match report on Tipple from that game after what is sure to be another breathless League Two afternoon

Can the Swindon lot keep their heads above water and salvage their promotion push after recent form has seen them drop down the pecking order? Or will red-hot Grimsby reel them in with another in a string of impressive victories? A chance at Wembley and the dream of promotion is on the line in this weekend’s Big Bet!

Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9.5/10