League One Relegation Battle Run In
Credit: Clive Stapleton
Another weekend of EFL action has flown on by, and with some teams having as little as six games remaining, I think it’s about time we had a closer look at the run-in! This week, our focus is on the battle to survive at the bottom end of League One, as some big names at this level are scrapping amongst the underdogs to reclaim a place in next season’s third tier. There were two massive six-pointers, including a last-gasp winner, and one of the sides that looked to be pulling away got dragged right back into the mess with a humbling defeat on the road. As the games tick by, we start to find out who really has the bottle to stay up, and who could sink into the bottomless pit of League Two, a division that has been notoriously difficult to bounce back up from in recent years. It’s the time of the season we’ve all been waiting for, let’s get stuck into the League One relegation run-in!
Wycombe 4-0 Port Vale
If Vale weren’t condemned to relegation already, they are now. The league’s bottom side had been managing to keep themselves competitive in games in recent weeks but, perhaps with an eye on their next game against Chelsea in the FA Cup, got rolled over with relative ease by play-off chasing Wycombe. The result leaves the Valiants on 31 points, 14 from safety with 8 games remaining. Not technically insurmountable, but if you’ve watched Vale at all this season you’d be stunned if they even picked up another 10 points, particularly with Cardiff, Lincoln, and Stockport left to play. It’s looking like they’ll be the only team from the League Two promotion class of ‘25 to succumb to an immediate relegation, you'd back them to be up challenging at the sharp end of the fourth tier next season.
Exeter 0-0 Leyton Orient
You see what I mean about the results being boring? This actually wasn’t too bad of a game in fairness, with both sides having plenty of chances to win it. Orient hitman and league top scorer Dom Ballard was kept relatively quiet, only managing 2 attempts all game that both missed the target. Exeter’s danger man Jayden Wareham was much more lively, but again failed to hit the target with any of his 5 shots on goal. Both ‘keepers were tested and passed with flying colours, the full-time result reflecting the good working put in by both defences.
It’s a result that will please Orient fans much more than it will those who follow Exeter. After a trip to the play-offs last season, a battle at the bottom end has been a disappointing jolt back to reality for Leyton Orient, but avoiding defeat here has left a nice cushion between them and the dreaded bottom four going into the final weeks of the campaign following 4 successive victories against good sides coming into this weekend. For the Grecians, a win would have kept them out of the relegation places on goal difference as they continue to run virtually neck-and-neck with Blackpool. The result at Bloomfield Road will be a sickener for them, and sees them finish the weekend in the relegation zone. Without a win in 14 league games, and some huge fixtures to come, are Exeter at danger of vanishing without a trace?
Reading 3-0 Wigan
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan took his recent tally to 6 in 6 as he leads the line in the absence of the injured Jack Marriott. This time it was at Wigan’s expense, the Latics falling to just a second defeat in 7 after a recent run of form that saw their survival hopes given a massive boost. Reading look nigh-on unplayable at their very best, and it’s no surprise to see them occupy that final play-off spot as things stand, but Wigan will be disappointed at the fact that they were never really in the game.
Kelvin nodded Reading into the lead inside 10 minutes, before Will Aimson turned in a calamitous own-goal just 10 minutes later. The hosts continued to bang on the door and missed some great chances before Ehibhatiomhan bundled in their third of game to kill any hopes of a Wigan comeback off completely midway through the second half. The Latics simply had no answer for what was a much better side in Reading, who were playing some of their best stuff. They had a goal disallowed for offside and mustered a solitary shot on target, a curling effort in injury time that was well saved by Joel Pereira in the Reading goal.
Picking up a result here, however unlikely, would’ve been huge for Wigan. A loss keeps them within one bad weekend of the drop zone, and losing by 3 drags their goal difference to 3 below Exeter’s, 2 below Burton, and just 3 better than Blackpool. The margin of defeat could prove costly come the end of the season.
Blackpool 1-0 Burton Albion
The biggest result of the weekend at the bottom end of League One was undoubtedly Blackpool picking up an injury-time winner to beat fellow relegation rivals Burton at Bloomfield Road to drag themselves out of the bottom four for the time being.
Blackpool, being one of the bigger sides in this league and having made some shrewd signings in summer, were an early promotion favourite before a ball was kicked. They’ve had to bring in Ian Evatt to try and steer them clear of the drop after a disastrous start under Steve Bruce, and initially showed promise. They clambered free from danger over the first few months before reverting to type at the turn of the year, victory this weekend just their fourth win since the start of 2026. Burton are quite the opposite, always a favourite to go down due to their smaller-than-average stature for this level, they have once again defied those odds and put themselves in a solid position to stay up, or at least be in the fight until the final day.
It was, to be honest, a rubbish game. Indicative of two sides desperate not to lose when every point is so crucial, there was very little in terms of quality chances and attack play on show. The hosts certainly had the better of the play throughout and limited Burton to almost nothing, but they failed to really trouble Brad Collins in the Brewers net until added time.
Seasiders’ goalie Franco Ravizzoli launched a long ball down the throat of the Burton defence that was won by Niall Ennis and flicked on to fellow substitute Leighton Clarkson. He showed incredible patience despite the pressure as the crowd roared his team onward, holding the ball and laying it off to CJ Hamilton arriving late into the box and in acres of space. Hamilton took a touch before hammering his shot low and hard beyond Collins at the near post and sending the Tangerine Army into raptures.
That late goal keeps Burton within reach of the teams below them, and meant that Blackpool leapfrogged Exeter out of the relegation zone. The Seasiders have the worst goal difference of the teams from 16th to 21st that are realistically at risk of that final relegation spot, so that could be their undoing come the final day.
As It Stands
16th: Mansfield, 37 Played, 49 Points.
17th: Leyton Orient, 39 Played, 49 Points.
18th: Burton Albion, 40 Played, 46 Points.
19th: Wigan Athletic, 39 Played, 45 Points.
20th: Blackpool, 40 Played, 45 Points.
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21st: Exeter, 40 Played, 43 Points.
22nd: Rotherham, 38 Played, 36 Points.
23rd: Northampton, 39 Played, 35 Points.
24th: Port Vale, 38 Played, 31 Points.
The Run-In
Mansfield
The Stags will be fine. With three games in hand and six points separating them and the drop, it would be a disaster if they went down. Their only loss in the last 7 was a 2-1 FA Cup defeat to Arsenal, and they beat strugglers Northampton 4-1 last time out. Nigel Clough knows how to keep teams up, and I’m sure he’ll have no trouble this season. Their final 5 games are all against play-off/promotion chasing sides, so it might get hairy, but they should have enough on the board to keep their heads above water.
Key Fixtures:
Burton (H), Monday 6th April.
Wigan (A), Saturday 11th April.
Leyton Orient (A), Tuesday 14th April.
Leyton Orient
Orient have also managed to drag themselves to near-safety with 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 leaving them 6 points above Exeter with a game in hand. Ultimately, their destiny is in their own hands as they play most of the teams around them before the end of the season. Beat them, and you can draw a line under a disappointing season. Lose a couple, and things will start to get nervy. Have Richie Wellens and his team got what it takes to survive if it goes to the wire? Or can they just blitz the teams around them in the coming weeks to secure a comfortable survival?
Key Fixtures:
Wigan (A), Thursday 2nd April.
Mansfield (H), Tuesday 14th April.
Rotherham (H), Saturday 18th April.
Blackpool (A), Saturday 25th April.
Burton (H), Saturday 2nd May.
Burton Albion
Burton are the first team that are in real danger of the drop. Gary Bowyer’s side came back from the dead to secure a miraculous survival last season, and while they’re not in half as bad a position this year, they’ll need to pull out a famous result or two to get themselves over the line. They are yet to win back-to-back league games all season, and it’s that inconsistency that has left them precariously positioned above the drop. Nobody they have left to play is above 12th in the league, and virtually everyone but Exeter will be safe by the time they play them, so Burton will hope to take advantage of teams with little to play for in the closing stages. Star man Charlie Webster made a welcome return from injury off the bench this weekend having not played since the return fixture against Blackpool back in November, his reintroduction could be the catalyst Burton need to get them over the line. At their best, they’re a 1-0 win away at Cardiff, and at their worst they’re losing 4-0 at home to Orient. That’s Burton. Whichever version of them turns up in their key matches will be the difference between life and death for the Brewers.
Key Fixtures:
Mansfield (A), Monday 6th April.
Exeter (H), Saturday 25th April.
Leyton Orient (A), Saturday 2nd May.
Wigan Athletic
Wigan have the easiest fixture list by far, and have given themselves every chance to survive with the points they’ve picked up in recent weeks. Their once-solid goal difference took a tanking this weekend, but that shouldn’t end up mattering if they can beat the teams around them. Gary Caldwell’s return and the fabulous form of Joe Taylor up top, with super Sam Tickle in goal, should be more than enough to keep the Tics ticking for another year in League One. Can they finally put their financial issues behind them and look to build to a return to the Championship in the coming seasons?
Key Fixtures:
Leyton Orient (H), Thursday 2nd April.
Northampton (A), Monday 6th April.
Mansfield (H), Saturday 11th April.
Rotherham (H), Tuesday 14th April.
Port Vale (A), Sunday 19th April.
Blackpool
Blackpool are the final team currently outside the drop zone after their big win over Burton this weekend. As discussed, they’ve had a tumultuous season, and they have a weak goal difference. With some tricky fixtures to come, will Ian Evatt have enough about him to keep the boys in tangerine above water? If they do go down, it’ll be one of the bigger shocks in recent years.
Key Fixtures:
Exeter (H), Friday 3rd April.
Leyton Orient (H), Saturday 25th April.
Exeter
No wins in 14 with a brutal fixture list to come, it’s looking bleak for Exeter. They’ve got Burton and Blackpool to play before the season finishes, so their destiny is largely in their own hands. Lose either of those games, however, and they could be in trouble. Tricky home ties against Doncaster, Stockport, and Bradford will prove difficult to pick up points in, and they face an away trip to arch-rivals Plymouth who will love nothing more than to aid in their relegation, as well as still harbouring play-off ambitions of their own.
They’d won 6 and only lost 2 of their previous 9 matches before embarking on this horrific winless streak. Gary Caldwell left for Wigan halfway through, and new gaffer Matt Taylor is yet to register his first win as Exeter boss. It’s grim down at St. James’ Park at the moment. They do have some quality in their team, Ilmari Niskanen stands out with 10 assists to his name and Jayden Wareham has managed 16 goals in a largely faltering side, but they just can’t seem to get them to click at this crucial juncture. Honestly, with some difficult games to go and morale at an all-time low, it’s hard to see how the Grecians escape the drop.
Key Fixtures:
Blackpool (A), Friday 3rd April.
Plymouth (A), Saturday 11th April.
Burton (A), Saturday 25th April.
Rotherham
These next three are the sides whose survival dreams are almost certain to turn into relegation nightmares, starting with Rotherham. In a bizarre turn of events, the Millers parted company with Matt Hamshaw after a run of poor results before replacing him with Lee Clark. Lee Clark, that is, who hadn’t managed in any capacity since 2022. Lee Clark, whose last managerial job was at Al-Merrikh Sporting Club in Sudan. Lee Clark, who hadn’t managed in England since he left Blyth Spartans in 2020. Desperate, much?
The Clark appointment shows Rotherham up for exactly what they are, a club whose ownership have absolutely no real interest in football or trying to build the club back up to their former Championship status. Why could you when you could just suck every penny you can out of the club and refuse to reinvest? They’ve won 1 game in 10, lost their last 2 games 8-0 on aggregate and are 9 points from safety with 2 games in hand. Even if the stars align and they somehow win both those games, the chances of them picking up another 4 points over Blackpool are slim-to-none, especially as they have to try and cram the extra games in before the season finish date. They end the season with back-to-back-to-back games against play-off chasing Luton, Reading, and Wycombe, if they all have something to play for by then, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Rotherham emerge victorious. You hate to say it, but this looks like goodbye to the Millers.
Key Fixtures:
Port Vale (A), Tuesday 7th April.
Barnsley (H), Saturday 11th April.
Wigan (A), Tuesday 14th April.
Leyton Orient (A), Saturday 18th April.
Northampton
If Rotherham are all-but gone, Northampton are seriously finished. 7 losses in 8 in the league, with the EFL Trophy Final loss in the midst of all that too, has seen them plummet to near the foot of the table. They’ve won just once in 18 in the league, victory over Stevenage their only 3 points since before Christmas. Someone at the Cobblers must have been rock bottom of the naughty list. They have a game in hand and a 10 point gap to make up to survive, I won’t beat around the bush, it simply isn’t happening. I’d love them to prove me wrong! But, unfortunately for the Cobblers’ fans, I think they’re a shoe-in for relegation.
Key Fixtures:
Wigan (H), Monday 6th April.
Port Vale
As they say, save the worst till last.
I do feel sorry for Vale, they’ve played really well at points throughout the season and largely suffered from simply poor luck through the opening stages. Sadly, their form has never really picked up and they’re now a dead-cert for the drop.
At least their FA Cup heroics have provided a welcome break for their die-hard fans, and maybe they can stun Chelsea this weekend and claim one of the biggest wins in their history. Either way, it’s been a fantastic cup run for a side that have struggled to put it together on the pitch in the league all year. They’ve got a few of the teams fighting for promotion and a few of the strugglers ever talked about today to come, so they could still end up having a big say in who stays in the league at both ends, it just won’t be them. They’ve yo-yoed between these two divisions plenty of times over the years, they’re sure to be battling it out at the top end of the table again next time around. A Valiant effort, but it looks like they’re gone.
Key Fixtures:
Rotherham (H), Tuesday 7th April.
Wigan (H), Sunday 19th April.
Predictions
Personally, I think the bottom 4 will stay as they are. As much as Blackpool, Wigan, and Burton are extremely capable of self-sabotage, as they have proven over recent weeks, I think Exeter’s form is too poor and the bottom 3 face an insurmountable gap between themselves and safety.
If Exeter start to pick up points, and if a few of the games these teams play against each other go against the form team, we could have a blockbuster race to survive that takes us to the final day!
Who are you backing to stay up?