League Two Promotion Special
Credit: Thomas McAtee
We’re into the final throws of the season, so instead of focussing on just one game it’s time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Last week we previewed the battle against relegation from League One, now we’re looking at who might be replacing them. With some teams having as little as five games left to play, there are still a remarkable twelve sides in the play-off picture in England’s fourth tier, and that’s what makes it so captivating. From shock league leaders to plucky promoted teams, and of course Walsall’s annual fall off, League Two has it all. With only four points separating second and sixth, and the same margin splitting seventh from twelfth, this one really will go down to the wire. I’ll cover the key games from Good Friday’s action and preview all the fixtures to watch out for in the coming weeks that could make or break a team’s promotion hopes, with so many teams to cover I’ll try and keep it brief! Which three sides will ascend to League One automatically? And who will squeeze over the line to take part in the play-off lottery? It’s tighter than ever at the sharp end in League Two!
MK Dons 0-0 Barrow
Paul Warne’s MK Dons failed to capitalise on a dominant display and were forced the share the spoils against second-bottom Barrow. Barrow have taken four points from their last two games, both against the league’s top two sides, to give themselves a chance of staying up after being almost entirely written off just a few weeks ago. They required some help from the woodwork, and a fantastic display from Wyll Stanway (younger brother of England international Georgia) in goal to keep the Dons at bay, but limited them to few chances, particularly in the second half. The result leaves MK in a precarious position. Without a win in three and with in-form Oxford and table-topping Bromley in their next two, they’ll need to turn their form around if they’re to keep themselves in the automatic places. Just two points clear of the play-offs, one bad week could dump MK out of the promotion places they’ve occupied for practically the whole season. Squeaky bum time at Stadium MK, especially after how heavily they invested into Paul Warne and promotion.
Chesterfield 1-0 Cheltenham
Chesterfield were dominant in victory over Cheltenham to make it back-to-back wins in the Spireites’ hunt for promotion. Will Dickson converted a sumptuous Liam Mandeville cross midway through the first half to give his side the lead and, ultimately, the three points. Cheltenham threatened on occasion but the woodwork bailed them out three times as the hosts piled on the pressure. A combination of good goalkeeping and questionable finishing kept the score down, but at this stage in the season the three points is all that matters to Chesterfield and Paul Cook.
Walsall 2-2 Gillingham
Walsall made it five unbeaten as they rescued a point in one of the games of the weekend when Gillingham rolled up to the West Midlands. An early header saw Walsall lead by one at the break, before a lovely Gillingham moved carved them open to level things up at the start of the second period. The Gills took the lead on 63 minutes, and young Saddlers ‘keeper Myles Roberts won’t fancy watching it back. Gillingham worked it well once again, their move culminating in a cross being bent into the box from deep. Nobody in a blue shirt was there to meet it, but a miscommunication meant that Roberts went to make a routine catch as his centre half was trying to head it clear. The ball dropped to Seb Houlden, who tapped home his fifth Gillingham goal of the season for 2-1. Young Daniel Kanu levelled things up either final goal of the game just a few minutes later. Fresh from international duty with Sierra Leone, where he scored his side’s only goal in a 1-1 away in Azerbaijan, Kanu came off the bench to scramble home the ball as it ricocheted around the box following a corner to make it 2-2. Neither side had any chances of enough quality to win the game in the final half an hour, and it finished as a draw. Having played more games and accumulated less points than three of their rivals for the play-offs, you’d think Walsall will struggle to make it into the top seven. Drawing against a sub-par Gillingham was a huge opportunity missed to get some much-needed points on the board. After they went on a run of two wins in fourteen in mid-season, they’ve only got themselves to blame for a disastrous capitulation once again.
Accrington 2-0 Crewe
Missing opportunities was the theme of the weekend in the top half of League Two. MK Dons and Walsall were at it, and Lee Bell’s Crewe Alexandra side also decided to throw a huge chance away. After claiming a fantastic win against the run of play in last week’s match at home to in-form Oldham, a trip to face an Accrington side stranded in mid-table with nothing to play for and winless in eight should’ve been simple. It was about as uneventful as a game could be, with the first half passing by without leaving an impression on anyone watching. Two quick-fire Accrington goals, courtesy of a set-piece and a well worked counter, ended the Railwaymen’s hope of a victory just ten minutes after the restart. The Alex did find the net, but they were immediately, and correctly, flagged for offside. Accrington continued to trouble the Crewe net with little reply, and the game finished with a shock 2-0 to the home side. Crewe have been consistently inconsistent the whole season, and that’s what’s lead to them being just outside the play-offs as the end of the season closes in. We’ll go into detail about their run-in later, but their final five games are Salford, Grimsby, MK Dons, Chesterfield, and Cambridge. Ouch. No room for error, and if they do end up making it to the top seven they’ll be more than deserving.
Cambridge 1-1 Swindon
Thursday night saw a robbery in Cambridgeshire, as Swindon managed to steal a goal in the final minutes of this game to rescue a wholly undeserved point.
They led for the vast majority of the game through a well-worked Ben Knight goal, and continued to ask questions of Swindon ‘keeper Connor Ripley throughout. It wasn’t until the final minute of the game that Swindon would draw level, and through fortunate circumstances too. Substitute Joel McGregor’s ball into the area looked to be a low cross in search of the boot of the league’s top scorer Aaron Drinan. The centre forward either had the guile to let it go or just couldn’t reach it, and the low cross went straight through into the bottom corner of the Cambridge goal. Ian Holloway won’t care how they go in, and that goal keeps his side within one good week of the automatic places, and you can never write off a Holloway side in times like these. Neil Harris and Cambridge will be disappointed that they couldn’t turn dominance into victory, especially playing the night before the rest of their competitors. Dropped points leaves the door wide open for their opposition to close the gap, and close the gap they did.
Colchester 1-3 Oldham
Oldham shook off their loss to Crewe and made it nine wins from eleven with a victory at Colchester that wasn’t half as convincing as the scoreline makes out. The Latics led at half time thanks to Donervon Daniels’ close-range finish following a set-piece in the early stages. Colchester bit back after the break, their breakout young star Kyreece Lisbie nodding them level before spurning an even better chance one-on-one shortly afterwards. The second one falls for him following a deflection and he isn’t expecting it, and he was just unable to direct his snap shot either side of the ‘keeper, a huge let-off for Oldham. The visitors pressed hard for a winner, and it finally came with five minutes left on the clock. They recycled possession well after a deflected shot spun out wide, whipping in a wonderful cross that was directed beyond the ‘keeper by the head of Kane Taylor. It was another Kane that finished off the game in the fourth minute of added time, capitalising on Colchester piling men forwards and a wayward headed pass from the goalie to seal victory at the death. A massive win for Oldham, but they didn’t quite Kane the opposition as much as he scoreline would suggest.
Grimsby 1-3 Harrogate
We’ve spoken about missed opportunities three times already, but none are quite as egregious as this showing from the Mariners. Harrogate are, frankly, rubbish. Even after this win they’re still rock bottom of the division and have still scored the least, six goals fewer than their nearest competitor. The visitors scored two in a six minute spell midway through the first half, both lovely finishes but both also resulting from Grimsby defensive errors. Grimsby got back into the game through a Kieran Green header, before being handed the perfect opportunity to draw things level at the ideal time as the referee blew for a penalty in added time. Andy Cook stepped up, but Henry Gray got down well to save and keep the score at 2-1 to Harrogate going into half time. Harrogate’s game plan was executed to a tee, clogging up the game and limiting their hosts to very few chances of note. Just as the game was winding down, Harrogate transformed into the best side in the league. An excellent and structured passing move led to the ball being laid off to former Grimsby man Bryn Morris on the edge of the box, who bent in a fantastic effort across goal and well out of reach of the ‘keeper to seal a win that could end up being a famous one if they manage to pull themselves out of the drop zone in the coming weeks. With the way Tranmere have been playing, I wouldn’t write off Barrow or Harrogate staying up.
Barnet 2-2 Bromley
This was one of two huge games this weekend featuring a matchup between two of the sides chasing promotion, this game in particular being the biggest long shot for play-offs in Barnet hosting the surprise league leaders Bromley that are all-but guaranteed to go up automatically. It’s hard to call not beating the best team in the league a missed opportunity, but the way Barnet gave up their lead will have Bees fans enraged. Had they held on, their play-off dreams wouldn’t seem half as far fetched.
Bromley took an early lead through Nicke Kabamba, who is once again stepping in for injured captain and leading goalscorer Michael Cheek. They continued to dominate the early proceedings, before Philip Chinedu squeezed his first-ever Barnet goal in at the near post to draw things level. The scores remained even for the rest of the first half, and most of the second, and then things turned ugly. Danny Collinge looked to have put his hand in the face of an opponent as they were readying up for a Barnet corner, earning the Bees’ captain a straight red card and putting his side on the back foot. Not that this deterred his teammates that remained on the field, as just seven minutes after his dismissal Barnet took the lead through a Kabongo Tshimanga penalty. Down to ten and hanging on to a lead, it was still Barnet who managed to create the better quality of chance for what remained of the game. They looked to have held on for an all-important victory when, in the eleventh minute of added time, Bromley did what they do best. A long throw into the box was flicked on by two separate Bromley heads before being poked home from close range by 18 year-old George Evans. The forward had only been on the pitch a minute, and was making just his second ever professional appearance after suddenly finding himself to be a necessary member of the squad due to their ongoing injury issues. Safe to say he won’t forget this one in a hurry. A great game, but a massive opportunity lost for Barnet to solidify their play-off credentials. It’ll be a long road for them to make it into that top seven from here. Bromley may also rue not capitalising on their early domination and their man advantage, although they still sit comfortably atop the League Two table.
Salford 2-1 Notts County
Our final game of the weekend, and certainly the one with the most eyes on it, is Notts County’s trip to Salford. With Cambridge and Swindon dropping points against each other on Thursday, it was a huge opportunity for both of these sides to make up some ground in the automatic promotion race. In fact, following MK Dons’ disappointing outing, County could’ve sent themselves second with a win here. A draw would’ve even been enough to tip them over the threshold into third for the time being. Alas, it was Salford who claimed victory to shut the gap to just two points from MK Dons in second to Salford in fifth, and they did it in bizarre fashion.
The game finished 2-1, but as the board was raised at the end of the second half to indicate added time, the scoreboard still read 0-0. Two minutes into added time, Ryan Graydon flicked a near-post corner beyond the ‘keeper to win the game 1-0 for Salford. The crowd went wild. The players went wild. The bench piled onto the pitch.
Three minutes later, as the whistle was almost certain to be blown any minute, Notts County rescued a draw through Luke Browne after a cross into the box was dealt with terribly and he was left to head the ball into an unguarded net. The crowd went wild. The players went wild. The bench piled onto the pitch.
Just a minute after that, into the sixth minute added on, another Salford corner was whipped in and cleared away. It dropped for Matt Butcher on the edge of the area, who hammered home to win the game for Salford. For real this time. The crowd went really wild. The players went really wild. And the bench, one last time, piled onto the pitch.
It was a fantastic spectacle and, ultimately, the best possible result for the neutral. The automatic promotion race is impossible to call at this late stage, and with five teams vying for just two spots, three will have to enter the play-off lottery. Whatever happens over these next few weeks, it’s sure not to be boring.
As It Stands:
1st: Bromley, PL 41, 25 GD, 80 Points
2nd: MK Dons, PL 41, 35 GD, 75 Points
3rd: Cambridge, PL40, 27 GD, 73 Points
———
4th: Notts County, PL 41, 24 GD, 73 Points
5th: Salford, PL 41, 8 GD, 73 Points
6th: Swindon, PL 41, 18 GD, 71 Points.
7th: Chesterfield, PL 40, 10 GD, 65 Points
———
8th: Oldham, PL 40, 17 GD, 64 Points
9th: Crewe, PL 41, 10 GD, 63 Points
10th: Grimsby, PL 39, 14 GD, 62 Points
11th: Walsall, PL 41, 7 GD, 62 Points
12th: Barnet, PL 41, 7 GD, 61 Points
The Run-In:
Key Fixtures:
Monday 6th April:
Crewe vs Salford
Oldham vs MK Dons
Saturday 11th April:
MK Dons vs Bromley
Cambridge vs Notts County
Grimsby vs Crewe
Tuesday 14th April:
Chesterfield vs Grimsby
Thursday 16th April:
Bromley vs Cambridge
Saturday 18th April:
Crewe vs MK Dons
Notts County vs Barnet
Oldham vs Salford
Tuesday 21st April:
Cambridge vs Grimsby
Thursday 23rd April:
Salford vs Bromley
Saturday 25th April:
Grimsby vs Swindon
Chesterfield vs Crewe
Saturday 2nd May - Final Day:
Bromley vs Walsall
Crewe vs Cambridge
Swindon vs Chesterfield
With only a few games left to play, it’s remarkable how many huge matches there are still to come. Most of that is due to the fact there are so many teams still in with a shot at promotion, and that’s what makes League Two great. The extra promotion place opens up the opportunity to plenty of teams that aren’t within a hope of catching up to Swindon in sixth, with seventh-placed Chesterfield a much more reasonable target.
Crewe have it all to do, with top teams as their opposition at every turn in these final weeks, it will be a monumental task to achieve promotion. I’ll actually be on-site at the Chesterfield - Crewe game on the penultimate day of the season, but I fear it could all be over for Lee Bell’s men by then.
The Spireites have a much kinder schedule, with struggling sides like Barrow and Tranmere to come as well as a Fleetwood team with nothing to play for, but they must still overcome Grimsby, Crewe, and a final-day trip to Swindon if they’re to make the play-offs for a second successive season. Certainly doable, the game against Grimsby will be the key one as they’ll need to beat them to knock them out of contention.
The Mariners have it all to do squeezing two extra games into the same time period as everyone else, and this congestion could be their downfall. With four of those remaining seven games coming against promotion contenders, including a tricky away trip to Cambridge, it could all prove too much to handle for Grimsby.
Cambridge themselves have an extra game to play compared to their rivals, but are in a much stronger position. They face a huge tie next Saturday against Notts County, who are level on points with them going into the Easter Monday games. They’ll be looking to out the disappointment of Swindon behind them and to make a big statement in that game. It could be the decider for that final automatic place.
Notts have been the architects of their own downfall as of late, this recent mad ending against Salford just the latest in a catalogue of self-inflicted defeats. If they can stop getting men sent off, and that’s a huge if, they have a favourable fixture list with only the six-pointer at Cambridge next weekend and the visit of Barnet the following week that might trouble them on paper.
The Bees have the easiest run-in by far, but are starting from the furthest back. Notts away will be a difficult game, but their other four fixtures should be relatively straightforward. I think it’s too little, too late for the promoted side, who are four points behind Chesterfield with just five games to go. Never say never, I suppose!
Their fellow promoted brethren Oldham, however, are in with quite the chance. They’re a point behind Chesterfield, in better form than anyone else at a crucial time, and four easy fixtures and home games against MK and Salford left. If they carry on their momentum, they’ll almost certainly be the side that makes up that final play-off spot. Oldham have proven outright that a late surge of form can be all you need, and they’re a great advert for adding an extra promotion place to non-league, too!
If Oldham are to make it, they might have to get through local-ish rivals Salford. After a god-awful February, Gary Neville’s boys have re-entered form at a crucial time and have now won six from their last seven games. It isn’t always convincing, but it doesn’t have to be. They have a pretty rough run-in, but if they can beat the teams around them they’ll stand themselves in good stead to make the top three, with just goal difference keeping them at bay as it stands.
They play Bromley on the penultimate day, who look like they might just limp over the line to an astonishing title win. Injuries have hampered them in recent weeks, and they face a horrible run-in against three of the automatic promotion challengers in a row, but their points cushion should be enough for them to at least finish inside that top three. They play their closest challengers MK Dons in a week’s time, who themselves have struggled of late.
Paul Warne’s Dons are three winless now, and within one bad week of dropping out of the top three. After heavy investment, they have been unfortunate with injuries, but that’s what happens when you spend a load of money on injury prone players. You might be forgiven for thinking it was just bad luck, but he signed a lot of them from his former club, where they were also always out injured. At some point, you just have to blame the bald man in the bobble hat. Oldham and Bromley will provide stern tests, but with the teams around them also faltering and having each other to play, the Dons could still have enough to finish comfortably second. Anything below third is an unmitigated disaster.
Speaking of experienced bald managers in funny hats, Ian Holloway’s Swindon will be hoping MK Dons continue to drop points as they chase a late surge into the automatics. They’ve been inconsistent, but don’t have any of the real top teams left to face. If they can rediscover their best form, and play to Aaron Drinan’s strengths, there’s nothing stopping them reaching the top three. Nothing, that is, except tricky games against Grimsby, Chesterfield, and Walsall.
Walsall, Walsall, Walsall. While last season’s bottle job has become absolutely legendary, this year it’s all just a bit sad. They face three easy games sandwiched between trips to Swindon and Bromley to save their season. They’ll be hoping Swindon are off the boil and Bromley are on the beers by the time they play them on the final day. They’re only three points outside the play-offs, but the sheer amount of traffic between them could be their ultimate demise.
Well, there we have it. The League Two promotion battle. Breathless, isn’t it! You’ve read the preview, so who do you think will prevail? Whatever happens, we’ll be there every step of the way.