World Cup Previews: Group I
Group I. The group of death. This has looked like the most challenging group from the moment the balls were drawn. We have the back-to-back finalists and 2018 champions France, Norway making their long-awaited return to the World Cup with the Premier League winning captain and the best centre forward in the world, African champions-ish Senegal sporting the best squad in their history and they know how to win, and then you have Iraq. I’ll let you guess which of these four I’ve got in the sweepstake. I’m not holding out hope that I’ll see my £10 again anytime soon. It’s a difficult one to compete in, and it’s just as tricky to call! Bienvenue, Grouo I!
France
Qualifying
Didier Deschamps has confirmed that this will be his final tournament in charge of Les Bleus after 14 years at the helm, and it’s hard to argue that he’s done a bad job in that time. They disappointed at the last two Euros and suffered a heartbreaking penalty shootout loss in the World Cup final, but this France side is still one of the best they’ve ever produced, and a large part of that is down to Deschamps’ leadership.
His final qualifying campaign was as routine as is to be expected, France went unbeaten with 5 wins and a draw as they sailed to qualification with ease. They find themselves amongst the favourites to win the lot again, and that will happen when you have the attacking options that they have at their disposal.
The squad is as good as its ever been, and just the thought of having to defend against them sends shivers down my spine. Can they pull together and win Deschamps his second World Cup as a manager? Or will they all fall out in classic French style?
One To Watch
Hot take inbound: Michael Olise is good at football. I’m the only one brave enough to say it. He’s scored 25 and assisted 28 for Bayern this season, mostly facilitated by England’s rose Harry Kane, of course. The question on everyone’s lips is simply “how did Crystal Palace ever have a player this good?”
For France, Olise will form part of a devastating front four with Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, and Kylian Mbappe. Yikes. The front four is pretty fluid and each can move to play in each other’s position, but Olise will typically be deployed out on the right or in the 10 behind the centre forward. His passing range is immaculate, his dribbling is some of the best in the world and he’s a quality finisher up close and from distance. Essentially, he might be the best player in the world. He’s definitely in the conversation. If France make it to the later rounds as expected, having someone with a cool head like Olise will be just what they need to deal with the pressure.
Iraq
Qualifying
Ten pounds I spent to get Iraq in the sweepstake. Ten pounds. Inflation has gone too far. Now, obviously there’s no chance they go ahead and win the thing for me, but are they any good?
They put in a strong showing in the first round of Asian qualifying, winning 6 from 6 and conceding just two goals on their way to topping the group. The second phase wasn’t quite as simple. Despite a strong start they had to settle for disappointing draws home and away against Kuwait, and a loss against Palestine late in the process saw them finish in third place behind Jordan, despite beating them on the final day. This put them in the totally-not-rigged play off group with Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, in which they finished second. That sent them to a final two-legged play off against the UAE.
The first leg finished 1-1 in Abu Dhabi, meaning it all went down to a decider in Iraq. UAE scored first before it was quickly cancelled out by an Iraq equaliser, and it looked as if it was heading to extra time. Then, in the 11th minute of added time, VAR awarded Iraq a penalty. It took 6 minutes of protests before it could finally be taken, but Amir Al-Ammari kept his nerve and buried his penalty to send Iraq to the World Cup. World Cup qualifying is an involved process at the best of times, but it’s hard to argue Iraq don’t deserve to be there after playing 19 games across 4 rounds. New Zealand only had to play 5 times!
They’re in the hardest group and they’re the worst team in it, it’s going to be an uphill battle whichever way you slice it. Will they progress? Probably not. Am I going to cheer for them every step of the way for the sake of my tenner? Absolutely.
One To Watch
Play-off winning penalty taker Al-Ammari doesn’t usually find himself on the scoresheet. He’s a solid holding midfield player that plays domestically out in Poland, and he is exactly the kind of player Iraq need if they’re going to pull off a miraculous qualification from Group I.
He’s dependable, thrives when he’s breaking play and recycling possession and is happy playing simple, accurate passes for his teammates to do the rest. Iraq will be overwhelmed physically and technically in all areas of the field by all three of their group stage opponents. For a miracle to happen, cool heads like Al-Ammari need to be on the top of their game and not let the occasion get to them. Easier said than done when you’re facing off against Odegaard and Kante.
Norway
Qualifying
Norway were the standout side in European qualification, and probably even all qualification across the board. Despite failing to qualify for the World Cup for a generation, they have stumbled upon some of their greatest ever players all at the same time, and many people are tipping them to go deep on their return to World Cup action. They couldn’t have been dealt a much harder group, but they will relish the challenge.
In qualifying, they topped their group ahead of Italy with 8 wins from 8. Not only that, but they scored 37 goals across those 8 games, with the inevitable Erling Haaland grabbing 16. To condemn the Italians to missing a third straight World Cup is one thing, but to do it in the manor they have is extraordinary. At their pulsating best, Norway simply can’t be stopped. They have clear holes across the squad compared to teams like France, Les Bleus haven’t had to call up a centre half from Derby County for example, but their best players are up there with the best in the world. Norway could do something amazing here, just as long as they can hold their nerve and progress through their nightmare group stage. I’m sure they’ll be fine, their striker isn’t half bad.
One To Watch
It’s simple. It’s obvious. It’s Erling Haaland.
As much as I’d love to rattle on about how Sondre Langas is the future of Norway’s defence and how this tournament could be huge for his career, I think my biases may be a little too obvious in that case. Especially with the big Viking monster lurking up top.
Haaland has only scored 41 goals for City this season, a poor return by his standards, and suffered from a “goal drought” midway through the campaign. When he gets going, there’s nobody in world football that can stop him, and I truly believe he is the best player in the world at his peak. I’ve never seen someone so big and powerful move with such speed, and his finishing is unmatched. If you see him running in behind, it’s already too late. He positions himself better than any forward in the world, he gets there quicker than any forward in the world, and he finishes his chances with more power than any forward in the world. There’s no “I” in team, but there is an Erling Haaland in Norway’s squad, and he can single handedly drag them through any game against any opposition.
As long as the rest of the team hold their end of the bargain and keep the score down at their end, Haaland is capable of scoring one more than the opponents and carrying Norway deep into the tournament. If he is on song, they could genuinely go all the way. But it takes just one off game for them to go crashing out. No pressure Erling, if you’re even capable of feeling it.
Senegal
Qualifying
Senegal are the third team in Group I that had an unbeaten qualifying campaign, and they also sort of won AFCON between then and the World Cup. Told you it’s a hard group.
They won 7 of their 10 qualifiers, drawing the other three, and had the best attack and defence across their group. They ended up only topping the group by 2 points due to some disappointing draws, but it doesn’t matter how many points clear you are as long as you’re top when it all shakes out. Senegal have occupied the position of dark horses for a couple of tournaments now, with some of their players possessing clear quality and playing at the very top levels of European football. This looks to be their most balanced squad yet, and they’ve got their system down to a tee just in time for a huge summer.
Obviously, the dark cloud that was the AFCON final will still hang over them. They won on the day but, due to them protesting a late penalty and leaving the pitch, have since had their title rescinded and handed to Morocco. As embarrassing as that was, they still got all the way there on merit, and the shame of losing the title in that way should be all the more fire in their bellies to put it right and prove themselves to be the best team in Africa through this World Cup. The road to success will be bumpy, with Norway and France stood in their way, but with third place potentially advancing too, they’ll fancy themselves to make a run at the knockouts.
One To Watch
Crystal Palace are getting a lot of love in this edition, and rightly so. In the aforementioned Michael Olise’s absence, Ismaïla Sarr has stepped up to the plate to lead Palace from the front and cause devastation down that right-hand side.
Sarr scored 21 goals across all competitions this season, including 9 in Palace’s historic run to the Europa Conference League title. Winning the golden boot and being named player of the tournament in a European completion is no mean feat, even if it is just the Conference League.
Able to rotate into any position in the front 3, Sarr is vital to how Senegal operate. They value forwards with the dexterity to play multiple positions across the frontline, and Sarr will expect to be rotated with Ndiaye and Sadio Mane with Nicholas Jackson the focal point. If they have to counter attack, Sarr’s blistering pace will punish any lapse in concentration from opposition defences. And if they’re in the ascendancy, he can use his tight dribbling skills to carve out a chance for himself or a teammate out of thin air.
Senegal’s forward options are phenomenal, and Ismaïla Sarr’s performances will be pivotal if the African Champions(ish) are going to prove themselves on the world stage.
Prediction
1. France
2. Norway
3. Senegal
4. Iraq
This one was really tough to call. Well, three of them were.
Iraq will do well to pick up a point, or even score a goal, in this group. As much as I’m willing them on to win the whole thing, the sheer strength of their opposition will be too much for them to handle. They’ve done exceptionally well to get here, but this will be the end of the line.
I can foresee a world where any of the remaining three sides finish top of the group here, mostly because I can see them all dropping points against each other. France have obviously got the best squad, but with question marks over Deschamps’ ability to continue to extract the best out of that team, and rumours of Ousmane Dembele already questioning why Kylian Mbappe refuses to defend, it could easily blow up in their faces. I’ve gone with them to top it in their end, simply because if they do and I put them third I’ll look ridiculous. Allez!
Norway and Senegal with both beat Iraq, and probably both fall to a tight defeat against France, so it’ll come down to their game against each other to decide who finishes 2nd and who has to hope to be one of the best places teams in 3rd. Senegal have the more balanced squad, but the force of nature that is Erling Haaland has me swaying towards the Norwegians here. He is unstoppable.
All these predictions could blow up in my face, and I really do think think is the hardest group to call in the entire tournament. One thing is certain, you won’t want to miss any of these games.