MK Dons vs Luton
(Sat 19th Oct, 12:30PM UK - Sky Sports)
Love, hate, euphoria, despair, community, escape. Football means a lot of things to a lot of people. At its core, however, football is about winning. Every summer, all 72 teams in the EFL spend months agonising over all the minutia that goes into building a squad capable of winning games at their level and achieving their goals for the upcoming season. It’s all that matters. And it’s a case of so far, so good, with 71 of those sides managing to put at least one winning performance together in this opening stage of the season. Yes, even Derby. The only outlier? Paul Warne’s MK Dons. The Dons spent big off the back of promotion from League Two, but big money doesn’t always translate to big outputs on the pitch. Jack Wilshere’s topsy-turvy Luton team roll into town this weekend, and this could be a real opportunity for the home side to pick up that elusive first win. On their day, Luton are one of the best teams in this league. On their other day, they can turn up and get pumped 5-2 by Mansfield. It feels like the outcome of this match rests on a coin-flip as to which version of The Hatters walks over that white line on Saturday, which makes it the perfect game for our Big Bet! How on Earth do you predict this one? Hopefully this preview can provide a little bit of clarity…
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You may have noticed that my team, Derby County, aren’t doing so well at the minute. I try and not let my allegiances get in the way of any of my writing for Tipple and I like to think I provide an unbiased outlook, but I admit it is quite difficult on this occasion. I can see how me writing about the failures of a Paul Warne side may give off the same energy as a man sat in bed on his laptop, scrolling through his ex girlfriends Facebook, looking at her holiday photos through tears and mumbling about how he never liked her anyway, but I promise that isn’t the case! They really are just that bad. I take no pleasure in it, I promise. Although, it is MK Dons, so it’s always a little bit sweet to see them struggling.
Luton, on the other hand, are one of my favourite teams in the EFL at the moment, but they’re a Tipple player’s nightmare. They have a squad full of talent, and a manager that has proven on multiple occasions that he can get the very best out of them, but it just doesn’t seem to be clicking with any sort of consistency. One week they look like they might push on and challenge for the title, the next they look like they might be defending with their eyes closed. It’s a brilliant watch. Unless you’re a Luton fan, I suppose. That might make it quite frustrating.
Will we see title-challenge Luton or Youtube-Football-Defending-Worst-Moments-Funny-Errors-Compilation Luton? And MK Dons can’t go winless forever, can they?
It’s a roll of the dice this week in the Tipple Big bet! The question is, are you feeling lucky?
Form
0-6-2. There’s no other way to describe it, it’s one of the most bizarre records in the EFL. MK Dons have lost fewer games than table-topping Plymouth and 3rd placed Stockport, and the same amount as Bradford in second. They just can’t convert a point into three. It’s even stranger considering that the typical characteristics of a Paul Warne side are being solid defensively, sticking to your principals, and grinding out results, because we aren’t seeing any of that from MK whatsoever. They’ve gone ahead in 3 of their 6 draws, and 2 were 0-0, so it’s not like they’re fighting to claw back a point late on all the time, they could easily be sat on 2/3 wins and this would be the most innocuous early season mid-table clash ever. But they aren’t.
They had their league games postponed over the international break, but won both of their EFL Trophy games in comfortable fashion 4-1 and 7-1 respectively. As little as these games mean, MK fans came into their first league fixture back at home to Reading full of hope that they’d finally started to click and learned how to put the ball in the opposition net while keeping it out of their own. Reading turned up and beat them 5-1, with some Royals fans describing MK as the “worst team I’ve ever seen at this level”, so that’s good. Many expected Paul Warne to be ousted from his post in the aftermath of this game, but he’s somehow still standing. There’s a growing sense that any game could be his last if the result doesn’t go their way, and we could see his head roll if his side can’t beat Luton this weekend. Look on the bright side Paul, your old jobs at Derby and Rotherham might both be coming up for you soon enough.
He isn’t the only manager under pressure in the third tier, as there have been a few questions asked around Jack Wilshere and if the inexperienced young coach is what this Luton side need to get themselves back into the Championship. The Hatters undeniably have one of the best squads in the division, and while they’ve had some high highs under Wilshere, many seem to think the disastrous lows could be avoided by replacing him and hiring a coach that knows his way around the division. I know a guy that’s been promoted out of League One four times! And the best part is, if you can win this weekend you might be able to get him for free…
After back-to-back disappointing losses, the international break provided a welcome reset for Luton. They returned with a bang, beating Wycombe 4-1 away from home in an incredible display. THAT is the Luton town we know is in there somewhere, and if they could only play like that more often they’d be right up at the sharp end of the division without a doubt.
Only three teams have let more goals in than these two sides in League One this season, so everything about this game screams goals. Luton have been much handier at scoring them but Warne’s side have proven on occasion that they can pose a threat, can MK finally put together the sort of performance they’ll need if they’re going to stay in League One?
Head-to-head
The relative youth of MK Dons as a club, and the fact they’ve managed to avoid each other for many years, makes this section rather simple.
These two have met on just 3 occasions, all of those resulting in Luton wins. The Hatters won 4-1 away and 1-0 at home in the 2004/05 League One season, MK Dons inaugural campaign under their new guise, and they won 3-0 in an EFL Trophy match in 2018.
That’s your lot. Good luck reading into that. Will it be 4/4 from Luton or can MK Dons get their first punch in against the Hatters?
Key Matchup
Aaron Collins vs Mads Andersen
I’m not sure if I’ve mentioned yet, but MK Dons have been dire. The only man who can hold his head high amidst this mess is their Welsh wizard, Aaron Collins. After a frustrating injury-ridden first season in Milton Keynes last year, he has come alive in the early stages of this campaign. Collins has 6 goals and an assist in 8 league games, as well as a hat-trick in the EFL Trophy already. Considering MK Dons have only scored 9 goals in total in League One, it’s hard to imagine where they’d be without his contributions. Well, it’s not that hard, they’d be rock bottom. Collins has failed to score in 2 league games, and both have finished 0-0. Simply put, if it’s not Aaron Collins for MK, it’s nobody. If you somehow aren’t aware of him already, Collins is just a strong all-round forward for this level. He gets in the box to finish chances, creates them for his teammates, and isn’t afraid to let one loose from range, scoring a few screamers in his career already. His contributions have been fantastic in a team that hasn’t risen to his level around him thus far, but it can’t carry on like this forever. Either Collins’ form will dry up, or the rest of colleagues will finally start to pull their weight and give him a helping hand. Let’s hope for his sake that it’s the latter.
Luton’s defending has been dreadful at times this season. Despite this, Mads Andersen still shows up extremely well when you’re sorting through the defensive metrics in League One. Maybe he’s just had so much to do and he benefits from being busy. Another player who had a frustrating start to life at his new club, albeit this is now his fourth season at Kenilworth Road, Andersen has finally nailed down a place in the Luton team under Jack Wilshere, and is about as solid as a defender can be in one of the leakiest defences in the EFL. The system he plays in becomes clear in his stats, as Andersen plays a higher volume of passes than most other defenders, with a much greater success rate, too. He moves play forward with the ball at his feet more often than usual for a centre half and, touch wood, is yet to be dispossessed on the dribble all season either. Lionel Messi, eat your heart out. He’s not just a flashy defender either, the Dane ranks high for aerial duels won, interceptions, and clearances, and he’s even popped up with a goal from a set piece already this season. I think the most telling stat is this: Luton have conceded 7 goals in the 6 games Andersen has started, and 8 in the 2 he hasn’t. The 5-2 defeat at Mansfield and the 4-3 win over Reading are the only two games that he hasn’t featured in from the start, playing just 1 minute off the bench across both games. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
Collins is the man in-form for MK, but Andersen will prove a tough opponent to tussle with. Can the Welshman continue his incredible goalscoring run, or will Andersen continue to sure up the shaky Luton backline?
Preview
Oh boy. This is what it’s all about. Two of the most unpredictable sides in the Football League, neither of which seem to know how to defend, coming together in a must-win game for both, with both managers’ jobs potentially on the line. This is liquid EFL.
Part of me wants to be cheeky and side with Warney and back a first MK win of the season, but I think that’s just me leading with my heart as opposed to my head. Luton’s performance on return from international duty really was something, and MK Dons’ really was something. For that reason, I can’t see anything other than an away win here, and we could be waving goodbye to Paul Warne’s MK Dons career. Say what you want about the man, he never leaves a club without at least one promotion to thank him for.
This feels like the Big Bet with the most possible variance in score all year. You could put me in a coma now, wake me up on Sunday morning and tell me any score from 5-0 MK Dons to 5-0 Luton and everything in between and I’d believe you. And that is why we love the EFL. Who are you backing this time round in the Tipple Big Bet?