Port Vale Vs Crewe Alexandra: Big Bet Preview
Port Vale Vs Crewe Alexandra
(Sat 29th Aug, 12:30PM UK - Sky Sports)
League Two has been off to a flyer this season. Bizarre goals, last-gasp drama, outfielders in net, red cards galore, and plenty of ridiculous refereeing decisions, and that’s just in games involving these two teams! We really have been spoiled over the first two weekends of the season. With all this action spilling into seemingly every fixture across the fourth tier, it was only natural we made our way down there for this week’s Tipple Big Bet! Crewe have been effective, yet unconvincing, while Vale have failed to convert their dominance of the ball into all three points thus far. I’m not quite sure what to make of either of these teams yet, but this weekend’s match should hopefully shed some light on how we can expect their seasons to pan out. Both have seen their fair share of the drama, and both will be aiming to finish in-and-around the play-off places. Throw in a bit of local derby-day commotion, and you’ve got the recipe for a perfect Big Bet!
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Some sides have been an open book in these first two weekends, they’ve set their stall out and it’s clear to see how they're looking to approach their games this season. Crewe and Port Vale have kept their cards a little closer to their chests.
The Alex are sat pretty on six points and no goals conceded, but both 1-0 wins came in frankly absurd fashion, and it will be interesting to see how they cope over the course of 90 minutes where nothing notably odd swings in their favour. If that ever happens.
Vale have shown promise, but they have little to show for all their possession and chance creation. Having failed to score nearly a full half of football against a centre-half in goal last week, their forward line needs to put some serious work in if they’re going to deliver on their promotion manifesto.
I do have a little soft spot for the Alex, but I’ll try not to let it cloud my judgement here. I’ve followed them with a Crewe supporting friend of mine all over the country, from Chesterfield down to Wembley. Actually, just Chesterfield and Wembley. And I’ve never seen them win. Or score a goal. Sorry Crewe fans, I won’t come again.
The rivalry between these two is bubbling strong, and neither side will want to give up bragging rights this early into the season. Can Lee Bell’s men continue their perfect start on the road to a potential promotion push? Or will Jon Brady’s Valiants finally earn their first victory of the campaign to jolt themselves back into life after a disappointing League One relegation season last time out?
It’s almost impossible to call, and that’s what makes it the perfect Big Bet!
Form
We still don’t have loads to pick through here, and what we do have has been pretty strange, particularly on the Crewe side.
Port Vale were dumped out of the League Cup at the first stage by recently relegated Championship title hopefuls Wolves 3-0, which is to be expected. They then lost 2-0 to Oldham on the opening day in a game which saw them dominate the ball without creating any real chances of quality. While Oldham are a decent side with half an eye on the play-offs, this was a disappointing result for Vale, particularly given their own promotion ambitions. This was followed up with a 1-1 draw with Tranmere who, as previously mentioned, went 40 odd minutes without a goalkeeper. Yikes. The running theme is their inability to put high-quality attacking sequences together to create opportunities they actually have a chance of scoring. Their only goal all season has come from the penalty spot and it’s hard to see where they’re going to start flowing from. They need to work it out, and fast, or risk being left behind the promotion pack in a few weeks’ time.
Crewe have had, on paper, a great start. They’ve also had, on grass, a mental opening fortnight of the season. Their cup games have been fairly standard, beating Accrington 2-1 in the first round before losing 3-2 at Barnsley in midweek with a rotated side. No biggie. It’s their league games that have really caught the eye. A 1-0 victory over Crawley on opening day came through a 95th minute Josh March winner after their opposition had two men sent off, one entirely unjustly, and Crewe were a man down themselves. Then last week they beat Northampton 1-0 at home, again through a Josh March finish, and again in ridiculous fashion. The Cobblers’ ‘keeper rolled the ball out in front of him to set himself for a long kick, not realising that March was lurking behind him. Before he could react, March nipped in front and tapped the ball into the empty net to win the game. Deon Dublin eat your heart out. Two wins from two and no goals conceded is basically ideal, but the manner of the victories still leaves a lot of questions unanswered around Lee Bell’s side.
Will this weekend’s big test down the road at Vale Park provide us with the answers?
Head-to-head
I can’t sugar coat this, it’s been a rotten decade to be on the Crewe side of this fixture. The clubs have met ten times over that period, with the Alex winning the first match 1-0. This was then proceeded by two draws and seven Vale wins. In fact, Port Vale have only conceded once to Crewe across their last seven matches, keeping the Railwaymen at bay on the other six occasions with relative ease.
There’s no other way to put it, Port Vale just have Crewe’s number across not only recent history but just history in general. With 41 all-time wins to Crewe’s 20, Vale have been more than twice as dominant in this fixture than their opponents. Still, history is there to be rewritten. Can Lee Bell’s men build on their strong start against a faltering Port Vale? Or is a match against a side they always seem to beat just what Jon Brady’s team needs to get this season moving?
Key Matchup
Jackson Smith vs Tom Booth
With neither side here looking like they fancy creating a lot of chances, it could be the sort of game that’s decided by which goalkeeper keeps his focus and reacts to make the key saves when shots eventually do come their way.
Both are relatively young for the position, with Vale’s Jackson Smith finally finding his feet as a permanent number one aged 24 after a succession of short loan spells. He’s proven himself to be solid ‘keeper at this level last time out with Grimsby, with an impressive save percentage and pass completion rate for a goalie at this level. Crewe’s attacking play has been fairly poor, but considerably sharper than Vale’s. Smith will have to be at the top of his game to ensure his team stays competitive in this match if they continue misfiring at the top end of the pitch. As long as he doesn’t roll it out for a Josh March tap-in, or get shown up by a defender doing his job better than him in the other goal again, he should be okay.
Tom Booth is another jewel in an increasingly-bedazzled Crewe Alexandra Academy crown, cementing himself as their number one ‘keeper this year aged just 22 after a number of impressive appearances over the last few seasons. He isn’t as assured as his opposite number in Smith, sporting a lower save percentage, worse passing numbers, and a propensity for an error or two last season, but these numbers seem to have corrected themselves so far in the limited sample size we have of this campaign. His passing has been much more accurate and consistent so far, and he is yet to concede a single league goal. If he can continue on this trajectory, I doubt we’ll be seeing him in Crewe colours for much longer with goalkeepers in such high demand.
Preview
Oh boy. It’s another tricky one to call! I started strong with Bolton, before suffering a disastrous collapse with my pick for Lincoln to win last week, so I need a good performance here to get me back to winning ways. I had Vale going up automatically and Crewe reaching the play-offs in my pre-season predictions, and it’s too early to back out of these already. Don’t back down, double down.
I fancy both teams to do well, and the combination of their respective goalscoring problems and defensive solidities leads me to lean with a cowardly draw prediction this week. You don’t have to tell me how you feel, I’m ashamed of myself.
What do you think? Are you a wimp like me or can you actually pick a side of the fence to fall on? Crewe’s perfect start or Vale’s winless run, one must fall in this weekend’s Big Bet!