Coventry City vs Birmingham City: Big Bet Preview
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Coventry vs Birmingham
(Sat 27 Sep, 12:30pm UK Time)
This week the Tipple Big Bet shifts its focus onto the Championship as Birmingham City make the short trip across the West Midlands to fellow promotion hopefuls Coventry.
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Both teams entered the season with high hopes, Coventry having reached the Play-Offs last time out and Birmingham returning from a brief holiday in the third tier with an EFL record points total. They’ll both be relatively pleased with how they’ve started, sitting on 10 points each after 6 played with Coventry in 6th ahead of Birmingham in 8th due to their superior goal difference. However, neither team have really had the storming start they’d dreamed of when the curtain rose on the new season.
Automatic promotion should be the goal for both sides here, with the 3 relegated teams showing they can easily be got at and last season’s Play-Off finalists yet to pick up a single point there is a huge gap open for teams like Coventry and Birmingham to move into, so why haven’t they?
Form
Coventry’s record looks pretty solid at first glance - one of only two sides still unbeaten and the division’s top scorers, what’s not to love? Well, 12 of their 15 goals came in a ridiculous two match spree as they beat Derby 5-3 and QPR 7-1 within a week of each other, sending shivers down the spine of Championship defences all over as they feared they could be the next side to be demolished by the Sky Blues’ impressive frontline. Outside of these two games Coventry have failed to win, drawing their other four fixtures and only scoring three times, so their position in the table and goalscoring record is being heavily propped up by two outlier performances.
Not that they haven’t played well in their other games, they were on top for the majority of their clashes with Hull and Oxford and should’ve blown Norwich out of the water, but the reliability of their finishing has to come under question. Outside of the Derby and QPR games, Coventry have scored 3 times from 72 shots in the league this year. Simply not good enough if they want to mount a challenge on the automatic promotion places.
They'll face a stern test against a solid Birmingham side, only two teams have conceded less than the Blues so far, and the Coventry attack will need to be at their brilliant best to break them down. They’ve shown us they can do it, but can they do it consistently?
Birmingham have also had a bit of a wobbly start to the season, with three wins, a draw and two losses. This is their gaffer Chris Davies’ first real test as a manager, having walked the league in his first season in the top job last year with very little resistance it will be interesting to see how he works through a tricky period and justifies the summer spending spree. Despite being solid at the back, they’ve struggled going forward and have only found the net five times so far.
The danger for them coming up against Frank Lampard’s side lies in not being able to pressure them and dominate like Birmingham would typically like to, if they try and play as they did in League One they’ll get picked off on the counter by the fast attacking threat of the hosts in no time. Both teams average the 6th and 7th highest possession in the league respectively, so someone’s game plan will have to secede to a more cautious approach, and it will be interesting to see if Davies is capable of setting his team up to be a bit more reactive instead of taking the game to the opposition. It might not be how they’d like to play, but it’s how they’re going to have to learn to play to navigate a Championship season where it looks like (nearly) everyone can beat each other. Apart from Sheffield United.
Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings Birmingham have beaten Coventry twice, Coventry have come out victorious on three occasions and the other five have all been draws with four of them being goalless. Safe to say, a draw seems the likely outcome on the form guide. I can’t imagine the game ending goalless though, Coventry’s attack will have to click again at some point and there will simply be too much attacking talent on the field for both sides to hold their nerve at the back.
They’ll both be looking to showcase themselves as the real deal in the early kick off so expect exciting, fast football from the off on Saturday.
Key Battle
Haji Wright vs Christoph Klarer
The division’s top scorer will have the formidable Austrian to contend with if he is to add to his tally this weekend. Klarer has hardly put a foot wrong in a Birmingham City shirt since signing from Germany last summer, but this weekend could be his biggest test yet.
Wright has had his critics and doubters since his move to Coventry in 2023, particularly within his own fanbase itself. It feels harsh to compare, but he was brought in as a direct replacement for a certain Viktor Gyökeres, who has done pretty well for himself since leaving the Midlands. He’s not Gyökeres but he is proving to be a reliable striker at Championship level, netting 16 in his first season, 12 in the last despite injuries and already having 5 in 6 games this time out. He loves to drive with the ball and press from the front, ranking high amongst forwards for interceptions and progressive carries as he wins the ball for his team high up the pitch.
Klarer is an accomplished ball-player and also likes to carry the ball forwards for his team, so Wright will look to exploit this aspect of his game to gain possession in dangerous areas.
Klarer is fantastic at keeping the ball and Wright is great at winning it. Whoever turns up in finer form could turn this fixture on its head.
Preview
Almost impossible to predict, and that’s why we love the EFL.
If either side get a win, it will be a huge scalp. Beating a fellow promotion favourite and local rival in front of the TV cameras will lay a huge marker down for the rest of the division. We are here to get promotion. A draw benefits both teams but also neither of them, it’s a solid result against good opposition but, dependant on other results, could see them both eight points behind the league leaders already.
There’s a lot of football to be played but, in a Championship season as tight as this, every kick matters. One of these sides needs to rise to the occasion and use the result as a platform to build a fantastic run off of. But just who will it be? It’s anyone’s game in the Big Bet.
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9.5/10