Charlton vs Southampton: Big Bet Preview
Credit: Keith Heaton / Shutterstock.com
Charlton Athletic vs Southampton
(Sat 22 Nov, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports+)
Put down your England flags and dust off your season tickets - Championship football is back baby! There’s plenty of exciting fixtures to sink your teeth into this weekend, but if you’re stuck as to which game to tune into then look no further than this week’s Tipple Big Bet as Charlton welcome Southampton to The Valley for the first time since 2011.
Click here to download Tipple and start playing
Had you said before the season kicked off that one of these teams would come into this fixture in 9th and the other in 17th, you’d have been forgiven for thinking they’d be the other way around. In fact, 17th would’ve been well above expectations for the League One Play-Off winners and Southampton fans would probably be pretty disappointed to be outside the top six with the quality of their squad.
The Championship works in mysterious ways, however, and this weekend Nathan Jones is welcoming the club he was laughed out of to his new home. I’m sure he takes great pleasure in the fact his Charlton side are in much better shape than his former employers.
It’ll be a big test for both sides, are Charlton the real deal? And have the managerless Southampton actually turned their form around - or have they just been fortunate with their fixtures?
Struggling to pick a winner? Hopefully this guide can un-muddy the waters for you.
Form
Despite their excellent start to the season, The Addicks’ form has been patchy. They’re yet to string more than two wins together, but have also only lost back-to-back league games once so far, so they don’t get themselves stuck in a rut of bad form either. Over their last five games they’ve picked up two impressive wins at home to West Brom and away at Ipswich, the latter an emphatic 3-0 drubbing. They’ve also drawn 1-1 with Hull and Swansea and, last time out, suffered a 1-0 defeat away at Wrexham.
When they do lose, they don’t tend to lose heavily and are always in every game until late on. They make themselves very tricky to beat and are tight at the back, boasting the division’s second-best defensive record. Phenomenal for a side that finished fourth in League One last season. They definitely lack firepower, having scored less goals than anyone else in the top half of the league so far, but if you aren’t conceding any you only need to score one.
Southampton relieved Will Still of his duties after he wildly underachieved against expectations at the start of the season. U21s gaffer Tonda Eckert has taken charge of their last two games, masterminding wins against a QPR side with one win in six and a Sheffield Wednesday team who can’t sign anyone and are still in negative points. A win is a win is a win, but it’s unclear wether they will still struggle. Prior to those two wins, Southampton had won just twice in their opening twelve matches. And one of those was against Sheffield United, so you probably can’t even count that either.
They have had a habit of dominating teams without managing to get the ball over the line so far this season, if they can start getting the best out of the vast pool of talent available to them I wouldn’t be surprised to see them creep up into Play-Off contention. If they are going to manage a push up the table, they not only need to take more of their own chances but also stop giving away so many to their opposition. They have the fifth-worst defence in the league at this point and have only managed two clean sheets, both 0-0 draws where they have failed to capitalise on rare defensive solidity. Concede less goals, score more goals. With insight like this, it’s a wonder I don’t get the job.
Charlton have only lost once at home this season to date, and only let four goals past them at their place in the seven games they’ve played there so far. If Saints are going to get a win, they’ll have to be resolute at the back and take the few chances they do get. Neither of those have been characteristic traits of this season’s Southampton side. If they win this one, maybe they really have turned a corner and their season can kick on from here.
Head-to-head
These clubs had been on opposite trajectories for a while now, finally converging in the same division again this season for the first time since the 2010/11 League One campaign. While Southampton were flirting with European football and selling stars to Liverpool for £70m a pop, Charlton were steeling themselves for a tricky away trip in Scunthorpe. And yet, here they both are!
In their last ten meetings, Charlton have won on two occasions, drawing four times and losing the other three. Both their wins came at St Mary’s and the Saints actually haven’t lost at The Valley since the 2003/04 Premier League season.
There’s very little to go on, and none of it is in the last decade, but Southampton have the marginally record in this fixture’s recent memory.
This weekend also marks the first time Nathan Jones has taken charge of a match against Southampton. If his time in the dugout at St Mary’s is anything to go by, he certainly knows how to make them lose.
Key Battle
James Bree vs Ryan Manning
No right-sided wing back has created more chances in the Championship this season than James Bree. No left-sided wing back has created more chances in the Championship this season than Ryan Manning. Tasty.
Bree made the move to Charlton from Southampton in summer and has set the world alight for his new club from minute one. He’s popped up with two goals and three assists already so far, an excellent return for a wing-back in a team so focussed on the defensive side of the game. He wins the ball high up the pitch, is one of the most accurate crossers of the ball in the division and very rarely gets dribbled past. He is the ideal Nathan Jones wing-back, hard working in the press and proficient defensively while also being able to contribute with devastating effectiveness on the counter-attack. I’m sure Bree, along with his boss, will be keen to show his former employers just what they’re missing this weekend.
Manning has been a bright spark in an otherwise miserable Southampton season so far. A solitary sequin on a sack of potatoes. He has managed two goals of his own so far but is yet to register an assist. With the volume of chances he creates, this says more about the forward players he calls colleagues than it does about Manning himself. He’ll be nursing an almighty headache after being part of the miraculous Ireland squad over the international break, let’s hope for Southampton’s sake he’s shaken that off before he’s tasked with taking on James Bree.
Will one of them forgo utilising their offensive strengths to try and nullify their opponent? Or will both push forward as they have been doing and hope their opposite number backs down? Whichever way it goes, it’s sure to be an intriguing battle down that flank this weekend.
Preview
Overachievers vs Underachievers.
“Aren’t they doing well!” vs “Blimey what’s happened to them?”
A victory here could start to set the record straight as far as Southampton are concerned. The Valley has proven itself to be a tricky away ground to try and scrape any points from, so to take all three will show the league that Saints are more than capable of turning their start around and mounting a real challenge for the top six.
The story is much the same from a Charlton perspective. Despite their poor start, Southampton are still very much a scalp. They have a squad of top-end championship players with a few Premier League lads scattered about here and there too. I know they only got twelve points, but Taylor Harwood-Bellis scored for England last season! A win here shows Charlton are here to stay. Frame it and hang it up next to Ipswich away. If there’s one thing that’s for certain, the Nathan Jones celebrations will not be muted come full-time if Charlton get a result.
Will Will Still’s shadow still hang over the Saints - or can they exorcise their demons and begin their ascension to the promised land?
Who are you backing in the Big Bet?
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9/10