Colchester United vs Gillingham: Big Bet Preview

Credit: Rob Atherton / Shutterstock.com

Colchester United vs Gillingham Town
(Sat 6 Dec, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports+)

It’s FA Cup 2nd round weekend so we’re left with just one fixture in League Two - luckily for us all it’s a big one as 8th placed Gillingham travel to Colchester in 10th with both sides knowing a win will see them jump into the play-offs while everyone else has the week off. Points on the board are always better than games in hand - who can take advantage of FA Cup week in this weekend’s Big Bet?

Click here to download Tipple and start playing

These clubs have both been marooned in League Two after long spells in the division above, Colchester are in the ninth year of their sentence and Gillingham are making their way through their fourth consecutive season at this level. After years of unsuccessfully trying to navigate their way to promotion, they now both find themselves smack in the middle of a pack of teams all crammed together like sardines trying to squeeze their way into the play-offs by any means necessary. We’re eighteen games into the season now and still only six points separate Cambridge in 6th and Oldham in 16th, League Two is tighter than ever and everyone is on edge as a few good results can see you shoot up the table and into contention, and a rough run of form could see you sink without a trace before the race has really even gotten started.

With the rest of the division taking a break from league action due to FA Cup commitments, this weekend is a fantastic chance for either of these teams to stake their claim on a top seven spot and get their points in early to show that they do mean business and they will be a force to be reckoned with in the promotion battle this season.

Who will take charge of their own destiny in this weeks’ Big Bet?

Form

Gillingham and Colchester are just a point apart at this stage, but the routes they’ve taken to get to that total couldn’t be more different.

The Gills started hot. They went their first 9 league games unbeaten, winning 6 of them and sitting pretty atop the League Two tree after also going unbeaten for the last 12 games of the 2024/25 campaign. Surely this was their year. Right? Well, not quite. They lost. And lost again. And now they find themselves with just a singular win in their last 9 league matches. Luckily for them, 4 draws across this time has kept their points tally topped up enough that they haven’t dropped out of the picture after their fantastic start, but something will have to change quickly to see them maintain their position as play-off contenders.

Gareth Ainsworth’s side have limped to a few vital points in recent weeks. With just one win in 12 in all competitions, they have managed to eke out a few draws, including their last three games in the league. Going back all the way to the start of October, the only teams they have managed to not lose to are the four teams from 19th to 22nd and Barnet in 14th. Hardly inspiring form, and they seem physically unable to even scrape a result against superior opposition. Uncharacteristic of an Ainsworth side to say the least, who usually prides himself on making his teams hard to beat and a nightmare to play against.

Colchester have essentially done the opposite, 1 win from their first 10 had them worrying about a potential relegation to non-league before a huge 6-2 victory over Chesterfield sparked them into life and was the first of 6 wins in their last 8 games that has seen them shoot right up into the play-off race alongside the early pace-setting Gills.

Colchester have won their last 4 games, only conceding once along the way. Crucially, two of those games came away against Walsall and Notts County, who occupy top and 4th position respectively. They’re winning well, and they’re beating good teams. It’ll be a tough ask for Gillingham to go to Colchester and get anything.

Head-to-head

Since Gillingham dropped down to meet Colchester in League Two, the clubs have met six times in the league. Of those, 3 have been Colchester wins, 2 for Gillingham and a draw, with the result in this fixture last term ending in a 2-0 victory for the hosts.

Of these games, only one was won by the home side - the aforementioned fixture last season. The other four victories all fell to whoever was visiting on the day, could an upset be on the cards here?

Crucially, this fixture has been replicated this season in the group stage of the EFL Trophy. This game fell just as the fortunes of both teams started to change, and though they admittedly both fielded weakened lineups, it’s our best look as to how this match may play out. Colchester put on a dominant display with 71% of the ball and 22 shots to Gillingham’s 10. Despite this, it still took a 92nd minute penalty to seal the three points in a 2-1 win for Colchester.

A win is a win, they know how to beat their opposition and they’re in much better form. Will the experience-loaded Gillingham side powered by the wit and guile of Gareth Ainsworth have enough to turn their tricky run around here?

Key Battle

Kyreece Lisbie vs Max Clark

Kyreece Lisbie has steadily been contributing to all things good in the Colchester attack over the whole season, even when they had their tricky run to open the campaign he was popping up with goals and assists at crucial moments. His output has only ramped up in recent weeks as the rest of the team starts to perform and pick up points too. The 22 year-old made the move from Braintree town to Colchester last season and struggled for minutes, making just four appearances and failing to register a goal or an assist. This year he has been trusted with a starting berth, and he has more than repaid that faith with 7 goals and 6 assists across all competitions - all 7 goals and all but 2 of those assists coming in the league.

As effective as he’s been, there’s a valid criticism around his game that if he isn’t contributing to goals he doesn’t really do much else. I know that seems a bit irrelevant for a forward player, 13 goal contributions by this point in the season is a great record and what more do you need? But if he is being defended well or the team are struggling to create chances for him, he is pretty ineffectual and finds creating by himself difficult. Numbers wise, he is in the 1st percentile for total touches amongst his peers but the 98th for touches in the opposition box. When he isn’t stood in the box poaching chances, what is he actually doing? He’s also only in the 1st percentile for total successful passes and 18th for successful crosses, he doesn’t pass or dribble but he’s clearly deadly in the area. Despite all this, he has the highest xG+xA per 90 in the whole league at 0.8, so more often than not you should expect him to contribute to a goal in some form. Can Gillingham stop him?

If anyone is going to, it might have to be experienced full-back Max Clark. Lisbie is likely to be deployed on the right-hand side so should be coming up head-to-head with Clark down the Gills’ left. Clark himself is an offensive threat, with 2 goals and 2 assists this season, but also one of the few consistent performers in a patchy Gillingham side. He is in the 89th percentile for interceptions per 90 amongst other full-backs, 84th for tackles and 76th for blocked shots. Defensively, he is performing impressively this season and will need to be at his best to ensure Lisbie doesn’t find himself on the end of any chances in the box. If he gets one, he’ll bury it.

Preview

A massive tie at the top of the tree before the Christmas fixtures kick off. If Arsenal win, you’d think the title race might be over before it’s even begun. A Chelsea result A big headline game could be the tonic both sides need here. A win in a massive tie could be the rocket that Gillingham need to restart their season and get back amongst the form and potentially back amongst the automatic promotion places come May. For Colchester, a huge victory with the whole league’s eyes on you could be the stamp on their credentials they need to prove to everyone that they’re up there on merit and that they don’t intent on making it ten straight seasons in the fourth tier.

One League Two game all weekend, and it’s absolutely huge in the context of the early season play-off battle.

Will the Gills return to their thrills or will the U’s use the form to their advantage and fire themselves into the play-offs?

Big game. Big Bet. Who have you got?

Tipple Difficulty Rating: 8.5/10