Leeds Vs Manchester United: Big Bet Preview

Credit: Luke Broughton

Leeds United vs Manchester United
(Sun 04 Jan, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports)

Happy New Year! And what better way to ring in 2026 than with one of English football’s fiercest rivalries - the Roses Derby! With Leeds’ form on the up and Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United more than capable of a slip up at every opportunity, it could be the Whites’ best chance to give their rivals a bloody nose in over a decade. A game fuelled by over 100 years of hatred that could have massive repercussions at both ends of the table - the perfect game to be our first Big Bet of the year!

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After a couple of years apart, this historic rivalry will be renewed again this weekend, and what a game it promises to be. Leeds are flying and battling hard to stay in the division this time following promotion, and Manchester United are well in the race for the European places after an upturn in their own form and the spectacular ability of the teams around them to keep throwing points away at every turn.

Both of these sides have plenty to play for, not least claiming bragging rights over a hated rival. Bodies will be on the line and it’s bound to be fiery, just what we love to see in the Big Bet!

Form

Leeds have been sensational as of late, and it’s come out of nowhere. Following six losses in seven that left them looking doomed, Daniel Farke’s side have gone unbeaten in six games and have dragged themselves seven points clear of the relegation zone. They’ve beaten Chelsea and Palace handily, two sides who would’ve travelled to Elland Road expecting a fairly routine victory, and managed draws against solid Brentford and Sunderland teams away from home. The jewels in the crown of this run, however, have been two draws against reigning champions Liverpool. A pulsating 3-3 at Elland Road at the start of December followed by a pretty stagnant 0-0 on New Year’s Day saw the newly promoted side take two points from Arne Slot’s men, showing themselves to be adaptable and tactically astute enough to repeat their feat shortly after the first one in an entirely different manner. Leeds’ run isn’t fortune, it’s hard work and clever set-up, and by the looks of it they’re showing no sign of slowing down with Manchester United in their crosshairs. 

As far as Amorim’s boys go, things have unquestionably improved since the dark days of Grimsby away in the Carabao Cup, but they’re still a far cry from their glory days. Only one loss to high-flying Aston Villa in their last seven is a great return, but three draws in that time has stopped them taking the leap into the Champions League spots. The draws themselves have been bizarre too, just two points from Wolves and West Ham at home is nothing short of horrific and the 4-4 draw against Bournemouth was a masterclass in how not to defend in the Premier League. How they do this weekend all depends on which version of Manchester United actually turn up.

Both teams are in the midst of an improved spell of form and will be well up for this game. Whose run will carry on through the start of the New Year?

Head-to-head

Games between these two had been few and far between after Leeds’ tumble down the divisions in the early 2000s. That all changed in 2020 thanks to the man heralded as a God in West Yorkshire, Marcelo Bielsa. Leeds have since spent three years in the top flight before dropping down to the Championship, losing a play-off final and then coming back up as 100 point champions last year for another crack at Premier League survival.

Unfortunately for them, their record against their rivals from Manchester has been less than stellar in that time. In the six league games they played across their three seasons in the division, Leeds managed to scrape a draw on two occasions and lose the other four. The manner of the defeats was also historically bad, with a 4-2, 5-1 and 6-2 loss in that time. Their last league win in this fixture? A 1-0 victory in September 2002, Harry Kewell the goalscorer.

Their record has been terrible, but the tide might just be changing. Manchester United look vulnerable and more than capable of being beat by any opponent at this level, and Leeds are in their best top-flight form for years. Could this be the game that Leeds finally take three points from their old enemies for the first time in over 23 years? New year, new Leeds.

Key Battle

Dominic Calvert-Lewin vs Ayden Heaven

You’d have to have a cold, cold heart (or be a supporter of one of the many teams with a generation-spanning grudge against Leeds United) not to be enjoying this run of goalscoring form for Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Seven goals in seven games, only halted from scoring in that time in his 20 minute substitute appearance at Anfield, DCL’s hot streak has been one of the most important catalysts in Leeds’ surge up the table.

It might sound old fashioned, but maybe the old-school pundits that have been pedalling the idea that “promoted teams need a big number nine” have a point. If they can keep him fit, and that’s a big if, Calvert-Lewin will be able to cause enough chaos in the box to drag Leeds to the points total required to ensure Premier League survival this term. Next up in the firing line, the notoriously shaky defence of Manchester United in a rocking Elland Road. He will be licking his lips at the prospect.

One of the few defenders for Manchester United that has come through this season with any credit is 19 year-old Aydan Heaven. The teenager worked his way into the starting lineup for the West Ham game at the start of December and hasn’t looked back since. For such a young man, he looks extremely assured at the top level. He is comfortable on the ball and more than capable of playing a short passing game from the back without caving to the pressure of long-time Premier League pros bearing down on him, and also more than happy to get stuck in to the physical side of the game. If they can manage to nurture him without ruining him, a tough ask for Manchester United in recent years, Heaven could start at the heart of their defence for years to come. If not, he’ll be starting for Barcelona in a few years time after being told he’s not good enough.

Calvert-Lewin is a wiley operator at this level and in the form of his life, and he will be relishing putting the young defender through his paces. In the pressure-cooker atmosphere of Elland Road, this will be his biggest test yet. Will he crumble under the weight of the occasion or will it be a match made for Heaven?

Preview

On paper this should be the tightest Roses Derby in decades, with both sides capable of beating - and more importantly getting beat by - absolutely anyone. The visitors have a couple of days extra rest, and the margins are that tight that it could make all the difference.

The crowd will be pumping at Elland Road for this match, Manchester United need to control the early passages of the game or the atmosphere could propel their hosts into steamrolling them before they realise what’s happening.

A massive, massive game for the first Big Bet of 2026. Let’s hope it lives up to the promise!

Who are you backing to start the year with the bragging rights? 

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