Swansea vs Birmingham: Big Bet Preview
Credit: ProSportFoto.co.uk
Swansea City vs Birmingham City
(Sat 17 Jan, 5:30pm UK - Sky Sports)
FA Cup weekend has been and gone to varying degrees of success for these sides, now focus shifts back onto two league campaigns that haven’t quite lived up to the high hopes of pre-season. A loss could be devastating to either side’s dreams of a late-season play-off charge, a win could reignite the hope and send the victor within reach of the top six. It’s now or never in this weeks’ Big Bet!
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Swansea finished 11th last time out, just 7 points from the play-offs and full of plenty of optimism ahead of a new season that maybe this year really could be the year they push for a first Premier League return since relegation in 2018.
Birmingham, on the other hand, broke every possible record in League One last year and came into this year as one of the heavy favourites for promotion after a couple of summers of big spending and attracting some impressive players in on frees and loan deals with an enticing project on offer.
26 games in, if you’d have told them both they’d sit either side of relegated Southampton and play-off finalists Sheffield United they’d have been thrilled with how their season was progressing. Unfortunately for them (Saints and the Blades too) they’ve actually had pretty mediocre campaigns so far.
Swansea are the hosts, and the feeling around the club is one of optimism. They’re 9 points shy of the play-offs in 17th, but also 8 clear of the drop. After their dreadful start left them looking doomed, the sky is looking a little bluer over the Welsh south coast under new boss Vitor Matos. Their form and generally play has been greatly improved under his tutelage, can a solid January window set them up for a late entry to the promotion race? A win here would be the perfect start.
Birmingham have been hot, and Birmingham have been cold. At their best they look totally unplayable and at their worst they look distinctly average. Chris Davies is under a lot of pressure for the first time in his young managerial career, sat in 14th place with a 7 point gap to the play-offs, can Davies inspire his team to hit their highs more often and push themselves up to where the pre-season odds had them finishing?
Who will breathe some life into their season in this week’s Tipple Big Bet?
Form
After a torrid run of 1 win in 10, the Swans’ form has taken a turn for the better with 5 wins from their last 8 in the league including a crucial win over Portsmouth and the double over Oxford to dispel their fears of relegation. They’re also taking steps to sure up their defence, having only conceded 5 goals in that period as opposed to the 14 conceded in the preceding 5 games. All in all, things are looking up for Swansea under Vitor Matos, can you blame the Welsh side for having half an eye on the play-off race after how drastic their u-turn has been?
Birmingham are peculiar. After a run of 7 games without a win, they went and pulled off a 3-2 victory against league leaders Coventry last time out. Watching that game in particular, the win was definitely against the run of play, but that’s what Birmingham have been looking for. So far this season, Davies’ side have come unstuck due to a lack of a Plan B and struggling to play against sides who are taking the game to them, a victory if this magnitude against the tide might be just what they needed. Still, that’s their only win in 8 with 16 goals conceded across that run. Saturday will be the real test as to if they’ve arrested this slump or if Chris Davies’ job is really at risk.
It’s also worth noting that Birmingham have the third worst away record in the division, only ahead of Portsmouth and Sheffield Wednesday. With just 2 wins in 13 away trips, it’s been a grim season to be following Blues up and down the country. Swansea have won 4 of their 5 home games under Matos, only narrowly losing to Derby in his first match as manager as he was appointed shortly before. As soon as he had dug his teeth into this side and got them practicing his methods, the Swans have won 4 home games on the bounce and only conceded once.
Head-to-head
Swansea have failed to beat Birmingham in their last 9 attempts, including a 94th minute 1-0 loss at St. Andrew’s earlier in the season.
Five of those have resulted in draws and all four Birmingham wins have been by a single goal, there’s rarely much to separate these sides but the Midlands outfit tend to edge it.
Swansea were a different side in the reverse fixture, still with Alan Sheehan at the helm and at the beginning of the horrendous run that forced the board to make a change in the dugout. Despite this, they still pushed Birmingham close and could only be beaten by a last-gasp Lyndon Dykes goal. Close in the table and typically closely matched on the pitch, this game has all the hallmarks of a classic in the fight to join the chasing pack.
Without a victory over Blues in coming up on six years, is this the weekend Swansea flip the script?
Key Battle
Zan Vipotnik vs Jay Stansfield
Neither of these sides have been particularly impressive at the back thus far, so this game could be decided by which team’s goal-scorer shows up in the best form on the day.
After a season of adjustment, Vipotnik has finally found his goalscoring boots for Swansea this year. 10 in 24 in the league is a solid return, particularly considering how dismal the team were for the first part of this campaign. He has 4 in 10 championship games under the new boss, and while he isn’t being relied on as heavily as before he is still the focal point at which all of Swansea’s attacks revolve around. He’s proven this season that he can score from range, with either foot and with his head. A danger in any situation, Birmingham will have to be at their defensive best to keep to keep the Slovenian at bay.
Blues have their own weapon in attack to counteract Vipotink, however. The man that cost them anywhere between £15m and £50m depending on how bitter the fan you ask is, Jay Stansfield. Joking aside, no matter which way you present it with instalments etc, Stansfield represents a significant outlay for Birmingham, particularly as a League One side at the time. He’s young, English, and producing at a steady rate so will always hold value, but this season felt like the one where he needed to start living up the expectations that come with a price tag so hefty.
Has he? Well, sort of. 8 goals and 3 assists in 24 games is a solid record in a faltering Birmingham side, especially as he’s been deployed behind the striker on lots of occasions as opposed to as an out-and-out front man, but it was a lot more impressive when it was 8 goals and 2 assists in 15. Just one assist and no goals to show for his efforts in his last 9 outings makes for concerning reading, is Stansfield up to the task of being a reliable Championship centre-forward? And will he ever ascend to the level that Birmingham hoped he would when they splashed so much cash on him last season? A goal this weekend could certainly go a long way to rebuilding his confidence and get him challenging for the golden boot once more.
A pair of streaky strikers battling it out for the golden boot, will either of them get a leg up in the race to the top this weekend?
Preview
Birmingham don’t travel well, but man-for-man they’re probably better than their hosts. Just 2 points separate them in the league, with Swansea in better form, it really is anyone’s game.
Can either side use this result as a springboard and start a New Year’s push for the play-off places? With just 10 points from 6th to 18th, everyone will fancy their chances.
This is why we love the Championship, and why the Big Bet is always so tough to call!
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9.5/10