Bristol Rovers vs Newport County: Big Bet Preview
Bristol Rovers vs Newport County
(Sat 31 Jan, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports+)
Forget promotion pushes and the bright lights of the Premier League, this week’s Big Bet focuses on the battle for survival at the bottom of England’s fourth tier. Newport travel across the Severn to Bristol in a relegation six-pointer, a loss for either side could see their chances of remaining in League Two take a serious knock. Newport could be bringing their thirteen year stay in this division to a sour end, and Rovers are facing the terrifying prospect of back-to-back relegations as they only dropped down from the third tier last season. Can either of these teams deliver a performance to build from, or could they both be staring down the barrel of a stint in non-league by the end of the season? No time for half-measures in the Tipple Big Bet!
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For many years now the so-called “yo-yo” sides of the Premier League have been widely derided, collecting their parachute payments, outspending the rest of the Championship to achieve promotion and then resting on their laurels and succumbing to a subsequent relegation to start the process all over again. It’s boring, but its sustainable. At the bottom end of League Two, however, survival takes on a very literal meaning.
Since the 2019/20 season, 11 teams have been relegated out of the EFL. Of those, only Grimsby and Oldham have managed to make a return to League 2, both scraping promotion as unfancied sides through the play-offs. Macclesfield, Scunthorpe and Morecambe have all suffered from devastating financial issues following their relegations, with Scunthorpe dropping even further to the National League North, Morecambe having to rebuild from nothing and currently occupying a relegation spot in their first National League season, and Macclesfield undergoing total extinction and rebirth through a phoenix club. With only two teams getting promoted from the National League, and a queue of high-quality sides waiting for their turn, dropping down into non-league can often prove to be a life sentence rather than a gap year in a lower tier where you can win every week.
Bristol Rovers sit just outside the relegation zone on 21 points, ahead of Newport on 20 points in second bottom. We say it every week, but this time there truly is so much on the line in this Big Bet. Will either side manage to come out on top and put some points between themselves and the drop and start to reel in the teams around them? A draw could see both get sucked even further adrift as the sides around them also play each other, whatever the results are this will be a huge week in the context of the League Two relegation battle.
Form
The form, if you can call it that, makes for grim reading if you’re a supporter of either side.
In an act of desperation, Rovers went and hired experienced EFL stalwart Steve Evans to drag them out of this mess. Currently averaging 0.6 points per game, it’s safe to say it’s a move that hasn’t yet paid off. Newport, however, went the opposite direction. Instead of opting for an experienced EFL operator to save them from the drop, they decided to hand Christian Fuchs his first managerial job in the hope that he was an undiscovered miracle worker. His title win as a Leicester player certainly suggested he was capable of the extraordinary, but that is yet to translate to his coaching career as his Newport side are currently averaging 0.8 points per game.
In their last 17 league games, Rovers have managed 1 win, a draw and lost the other 15. The win was an impressive 3-0 victory away at relegation rivals Shrewsbury on New Year’s Day, but other than that outlier they have scored just 6 times over that 17-game run. They have the second worst goalscoring record of any team at this level, and a defence that have only been out-conceded by their opponents Newport. It’s been a torrid time to be following the Gas, a first home win since September this weekend could send them as many as four points clear of relegation and allow them a bit of breathing space to collect themselves and work to preserve their long-standing status as a Football League club.
Usually, any side facing up against an opponent with a record like Rovers’ would be licking their lips in anticipation, but the story has been similar in South Wales. In all fairness, Fuchs’ side have been in marginally better shape than Rovers as of late as they try and recover themselves from their awful start to the season, but they’re in the bottom two for a reason. 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 10, including taking 7 points from play-off chasing Crewe and Chesterfield, has been enough of an improvement to ignite a spark of hope amongst the Newport fanbase for the second half of the season. They have the worst defence in the division, but have managed to out-score five teams. If they’re going to get out of this mess, they’ll need to rely on their forward players or seriously tighten up at the back.
Bristol Rovers’ early-season form has faded to a sea of red that has them destined for a trip to Woking next season if they can’t arrest the slump, where as Newport are recovering from their rotten start and are looking to overtake their hosts and leave them in the dust this weekend. The form favours Newport, but that tends to go out the window in huge games like this. Who has what it takes to knuckle-down and get things done when it matters most?
Head-to-head
Newport and Rovers have made the short trip across the border to face each other on 8 occasions since the Welsh side were promoted from the National League in 2013 and are yet to play out a draw.
They have four wins apiece, with the Bristolian’s drawing blood most recently in the reverse fixture with a 3-2 victory at Rodney Parade in September. Both team have changed managers since then, and at the time Rovers were in the midst of a 7-game unbeaten run. That seems lightyears away with the current state of their form.
There’s been 25 goals and no draws in their last 8 meetings, I’m not sure what to expect here but history suggests we should see some action at both ends of the pitch. Will the nerves of such a high-pressure fixture quash the excitement as both teams are desperate not to lose? Or will the occasion get to the players and cause reckless challenges, high-profile mistakes and goalmouth scrambles? Let’s hope for the latter.
Key Battle
Fabrizio Cavegn vs Michael Spellman
Any hope of solid defensive work from either side here seems to be nothing but a pipe-dream, so it’ll be down to each side’s forwards to make the difference in this one.
The stats definitely favour Cavegn. The Swiss striker gave up yearly Conference League football with Vaduz to join Rovers in League Two this summer, and has managed 13 goals in 34 games while the rest of the side struggles. He’s hit a fairly-impressive 9 league goals, including a hattrick in the 3-0 win at Shrewsbury, but needs to re-find his early season consistency. A big goal in a game like this could be just what he needs to get his season back up and running.
Newport’s top 4 scorers are all either injured, suspended or playing for Gillingham, leaving winger Michael Spellman to pick up the slack. He’s only hit three goals all season, but two have come in the last three games, so he’s hitting form at a good time. Will he be able to drag his team to victory in the absence of some of their key attacking talent? Or will Rovers’ Swiss star prove too much to handle for the Newport backline?
Preview
They simply don’t get much bigger than this.
Will the experience of Steve Evans win out or will Christian Fuchs show him that the new-school boys have left him in the past?
It might not be pretty, but it’ll certainly be a spectacle in a Big Bet that could have huge ramifications for the immediate and long-term futures of both these teams.
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 10/10