Wycombe vs Stevenage: Big Bet Preview
Wycombe Wanderers vs Stevenage
(Sat 21 Feb, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports+)
The back half of the season is well underway and it’s crunch time for teams at both ends of the table! For this week’s Big Bet, we turn our attention to the battle for the crucial final play-off place in League One. With the top five pulling away, it’s become an all-out brawl for that last remaining shot at promotion and there are at least eight teams who can realistically pin their hopes on achieving sixth place, two of which face off this weekend! Stevenage have dropped off after their fantastic start to the season, while Wycombe have risen from the foot of the table to challenge again after last year’s play-off heartache. Can momentum carry the Chairboys to success, or will Stevenage rediscover the form that saw them top the table in the early stages? A chance at the Championship is dwindling away, do either of these teams have what it takes to rise above the competition? It’s time to find out what they’re made of in the Tipple Big Bet!
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It’s my favourite time of the season. Teams in League One have anywhere between 13 and 17 games remaining to salvage what’s left of their season, if they want to mount a challenge on the promotion places it really has to start now.
Stevenage started strong but have fallen as of late, still finding themselves in 7th coming into this game just a point behind Huddersfield in 6th with two games in hand on the Terriers. With pre-season expectations for Boro so low, it’s bordering on a miracle that Alex Revell has them punching this far above their weight at this late stage. Given their defensive solidity and the games they have to make up on those around them, Stevenage are probably the team in pole position to claim 6th spot and battle it out in the play-offs for a shot at Championship football.
Wycombe, on the other hand, started dreadfully under Mike Dodds. He was relieved of his duties in mid September and replaced by Michael Duff, and things have steadily improved for the Chairboys ever since. They’re stuffed in the middle of the chasing pack in 10th as it stands, five points from Huddersfield with a game in hand.
For all the sides in this group from as far down as Barnsley in 13th, it’s just about maintaining some semblance of form and picking up points wherever and however they can. It’s no use worrying what everyone else is doing with so many teams bunched together, just keep winning your games and see how the table shakes out come May.
When they play each other, it’s essential to come out on top. Stevenage travel to Wycombe in a must-win for both sides. Any slip up could be catastrophic depending on results elsewhere, where as a win would truly cement their credentials as play-off hopefuls.
The season ends in 10 weeks, now’s the time to show if you really mean it. It’s put up or shut up in this week’s Big Bet!
Form
It’s been a mixed bag for Wycombe lately as they’ve struggled to string together a consistent run of results. Two wins, two draws and two losses in their last six games sums up their form across the entire season. At their very best they’re capable of turning over any team in this division, they just need to reach that level more often. Recent trips to Mansfield and Reading saw them create an extraordinary amount of chances, totalling 41 shots across both games. Despite the sheer volume of quality chances, they only scored twice across those two games and pocketed a single point. Both goals were a fluke bounce and a screamer, too. If the Chairboys are going to make a serious push for Championship football next season, they need to stop squandering chances and finally start burying teams in the way they’ve shown they’re more than able to.
From a Stevenage perspective, things have begun to trend back upwards after a rough patch to start the new year. They’ve won three and lost two from their last five outings, a much improved return from the two wins in sixteen league games prior to victory at home to Peterborough. The fact that they’re still one of the favourites to reach the play-offs despite such a torrid run speaks to how well they started this season, and how inconsistent the rest of the teams vying for the same position have been. They still have the best defence in the division, joint with the top three, but they’ve had some uncharacteristic lapses at the back in recent weeks. They’ve conceded three goals in each of their last three away trips at Northampton, Barnsley and Exeter, and have only picked up a single point on the road since victory at Stockport on the 13th of December. If their away form doesn’t start to tick upwards soon, the Wycombes and Readings of the world will blow past them in the play-off race.
The usually impenetrable Stevenage backline is showing cracks on the road, and Wycombe can’t seem to finish their chances when they create them. Whoever overcomes their recent tribulations will reap the rewards in this massive game towards the top end of League One.
Head-to-head
Curiously, the last ten league meetings between these two have all ended to nil. Wycombe have come out on top five times, Stevenage four and there has been one 0-0 draw in that time.
In the reverse fixture, Stevenage ground out a solid yet unremarkable 1-0 win at the Lamex that contributed to Mike Dodds’ sacking two weeks later. Both sides have changed a great deal in the months following the first game and this weekend’s contest could look very different.
The history suggests that at least one of these sides will keep a clean sheet, or will the streak of ten league matches with a shutout be broken in a thriller at Adams Park?
Key Battle
Fred Onyedima vs Carl Piergianni
Neither side have a player that’s made it into double figures for goals yet this season, but Wycombe forward Fred Onyedima could tick himself over the 10 goal mark this weekend if he carries on his recent performances. He’s managed 9 in the league thus far, with 4 coming in his last 6 appearances, including the goal in a 1-1 draw at Exeter in midweek. This season is already the most prolific of his career, his previous high being 8 goals on loan at Wycombe from Millwall all the way back in 2014/15.
He is able to be deployed anywhere across the frontline, typically producing his best work from the right-hand side. His fluidity of position can cause a headache for opposition defenders as he can easily switch sides and rotate around with his fellow forwards before their opponents get too comfortable defending against them. He is a quality dribbler, capable of beating his man to create a chance for himself and equally able to draw a foul to win his side an all-important set-piece. Stevenage’s defence will have a tough physical battle on their hands when they come up against Onyedima, one I’m sure Carl Piergianni of all people will be relishing.
The 33 year-old has made a name for himself as Mr. Stevenage in recent years, having been rock-solid and dependable at the back for them since joining from Oldham in 2022. As well as being so strong defensively, Piergianni is also a tremendous threat from set-pieces. He’s scored 69 goals across his professional career, including an impressive 11 in one season for Salford, and has nodded in 3 already this time around. He’s not just a big lump, either. His passing range is incredible for this level and he isn’t afraid of carrying the ball forwards on the dribble to open up the perfect line for a long-range pass.
Piergianni is a threat at both ends of the pitch that Fred Onyedima and his Wycombe teammates will have to be aware of at all times to avoid being the next in a long line of teams that have fallen to defeat to a Piergianni headed goal and clean sheet masterclass.
Preview
A massive game this weekend as the fight for the League One play-off positions drags on!
If Stevenage finally record an elusive away victory they’d fancy themselves as clear favourites to step into 6th place as Huddersfield continue to falter, but if Wycombe win it blows the race wide open. It’s a tricky one to predict, and it’s bound to have huge ramifications in the long term for both of these sides’ seasons! Who have you got in this week’s Tipple Big Bet?
Tipple Difficulty Rating: 8.5/10