Oxford vs Charlton: Big Bet Preview

Oxford United vs Charlton Athletic
(Sat 14 Mar, 12:30pm UK - Sky Sports+)

We’re getting towards the business end of the season now, and the battles at either end of the table across the EFL are really starting to heat up! Last week we focussed on the fight for the League One title, this time we’re turning our attention to the teams that might be dropping down to replace them. With Wednesday already gone, just two spaces remain to be filled in the second tier’s dreaded drop zone. There are some huge clubs down there teetering on the edge and desperate to stay afloat, and every point matters. Both of this week’s Big Bet sides were heavily tipped for relegation in pre-season - with one all-but safe and the other in the midst of a resurgence, could they both defy the odds and escape the drop? Survival is on the line as Charlton travel to Oxford in this weekend’s Tipple Big Bet!

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Oxford United looked dead and buried this time two weeks ago. With one win in eleven, they sat comfortably second bottom and only cushioned from the floor of the league table by the disaster that is Sheffield Wednesday. All of a sudden, after three consecutive wins, the U’s are now only separated from Leicester and safety by goal difference. Two of those wins were in vital six-pointers against Blackburn and West Brom, dragging both of them well into the relegation fight. With some tough games on the horizon, they need to target games like Charlton at home if they’re going to collect enough points to survive.

Charlton, last season’s League One play-off winners, have had a fantastic season. Heavily tipped for the drop, they started off the season in flying form and looked like an early contender for a second consecutive play-off campaign. They’ve reverted to type as the season has progressed, but Nathan Jones still deserves masses of credit for keeping them at arms length from relegation since week one. The Addicks sit on 47 points, with 50 the accepted total necessary for survival in the modern Championship landscape. Nine points and four other teams separate 17th placed Charlton and the bottom three, with nine games to go they are essentially home and dry. With little but pride to play for, Jones’ Charlton will be hoping to upset their hosts on Saturday and derail their survival chances as they aim to place as high as possible in the division. Not to cast aspersions, but Nathan Jones seems the type to relish the opportunity to break another side’s hearts. 

The race to survive looks like this: Portsmouth are in 19th with 40 points, Blackburn in 20th with 39, 21st placed Leicester have 38 points and are above Oxford by 6 goal difference and West Brom prop them all up in 23rd with 37 points to their name. And, of course, Sheffield Wednesday are rock bottom and relegated with -6 points. 

With just three points splitting the entire pack of relegation threatened sides, we could see massive swings in any given week. There’s no telling how this could end up, and that’s why we love the Championship. Nine games to go, everything to play for. All they all have to do is pick up as many points as possible and see where they end up, how hard could it be?

With their lives on the line, Oxford have stepped up. Can they continue their run and claim another three points as Charlton roll into town in this week’s Big Bet?

Form

As mentioned, the home side have been on their best run of the season in recent weeks. With three wins in a row, and just one loss in their last five, Oxford have dragged themselves back into the conversation for survival. With the sides around them struggling to pick up points anywhere, if Oxford can continue their run of form they could be out of the drop zone after the weekend for the first time since mid-December.

In the twelve league games since Matt Bloomfield took charge, Oxford have only lost on four occasions. They’ve struggled to score goals, drawing 0-0 four times in that period, but they’ve also remained fairly defensively resolute. Come the end of the season, those four points could be oh so precious.

Charlton themselves are also on a solid little run, with two wins, two draws and a narrow loss to high-flying Wrexham in their last five. They’ve won their last two games 1-0, which has been the story of their season. They’re the joint-third lowest scorers in the division, tied with Oxford, but only six sides have conceded fewer than the Addicks. They’re defensively sound, and limp up front. It’s not looking like it’ll be a high-scoring affair at the Kassam Stadium this weekend. 

Both picked up huge wins in midweek, with Oxford besting their relegation rivals Blackburn 1-0 at home and Charlton picking up an impressive 1-0 win on the road at second-placed Middlesbrough. At least one of their winning runs has to end now, will Oxford extend their streak and pile the pressure on the sides around them? Or will Charlton carry on their quest to prove they belong at this level and are here to stay?

Head-to-head

Charlton won the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier in the season to end a run of seven games against the U’s without a win. Big summer addition Charlie Kelman was the difference maker last time out, his goal splitting the sides in what was a fairly even game.

Oxford had won six, drawn two and lost just one of the previous nine meetings between the two, so they are typically dominant over the Addicks in recent years. It’s been over 12 years since Charlton won on the road at the Kassam, a 3-0 FA Cup victory in 2014 the last time they tasted victory on Oxford turf.

The history favours the U’s, but Charlton had their number earlier in the season. Will Oxford pick up where they left off and continue their reign of terror over the Addicks? Or can Charlton kickstart a winning streak of their own and put a spanner in their hosts’ survival plans?

Key Battle

Cameron Brannagan vs Sonny Carey

Neither side are particularly prolific going forward, and both can defend to a relatively high standard, so it could be down to either sides’ creative midfield maestros to pick the lock and make the difference in what should be an evenly matched game.

Cameron Brannagan’s quality is no secret, and he has become synonymous with Oxford’s modern history after he signed for the club all the way back in January 2018. Eight years later, he’s the club captain and the heartbeat of a midfield that won a surprise promotion up to the second tier and managed to retain their status against the odds. Perennially linked with a move away, it seems like Brannagan is here to stay. Clubs will always circle, particularly if his team are relegated back to the third tier, could survival be enough to ward off any potential suitors? He’s found life in the Championship tougher than in League One, as expected, but he has still delivered when Oxford need him most. He is their primary creative force, as well as being more than capable of winning a game from nowhere with a long-range strike. The midfielder has scored four times already this season and they’ve all come from distance. Brannagan can create something from nothing and is a luxury player not befitting of the level of player around him. If Charlton take their eyes off the ball for a second around him, they could be punished.

Lining up across from him and hoping to be pulling all the strings from a Charlton perspective is summer addition Sonny Carey. Carey had plenty of Championship suitors in the transfer window, but it was newly-promoted Charlton that secured his signature and convinced him to leave the bright lights of Blackpool behind him, a sign of their ambition. The 25 year-old had played at this level before for the Seasiders to little effect, but two years in the third tier have sharpened his skills and now he means business. He has eight goals from midfield already, but hasn’t scored in his last four appearances, it’ll take a huge effort from the U’s to keep his quiet streak going. Similarly capable from range, but also known to pop up with a late run into the box to score, Carey is dangerous with and without the ball. He is also a creative force, able to forge chances from thin air with his strong dribbling ability. With just one assist to his name, his passing numbers aren’t up to par with his peers. Preferring to take players on and score himself, when he is making passes he likes to take a risk and try and play the perfect ball or whip a cross into the box as opposed to playing short, intricate balls. Everyone needs a maverick, and Sonny Carey is Charlton’s.

Brannagan and Carey will go head to head on Oxford turf this weekend. Both are plenty capable of winning the game single handedly, but also equally as able to be locked down by a tough-tackling defensive midfielder and leave little-to-no impression on the match. Can either of these boys step up when their team needs them most? They’re both certainly able to make the difference in a fixture as tight as this one.

Preview

It’s a game that means a lot more to Oxford than it will Charlton, but that doesn’t mean they’ll make it easy for the home side. Nathan Jones will ready his team for battle, and it’s up to Matt Bloomfield to organise Oxford in a way that can exploit their weaknesses to claim a fourth consecutive victory on their road to a miraculous second-consecutive survival.

With Blackburn and West Brom facing tricky tests against play-off sides, and Portsmouth having to navigate a notoriously difficult home tie against Derby on Monday night, there’s no time like the present for the U’s to stake their Championship claim for next season.

Do Oxford have what it takes? Or will the already-safe Addicks come to town to ruin their big day?

The games are really starting to mean something now in this week’s Big Bet!

Tipple Difficulty Rating: 9.5/10