EFL Final Day Preview
There’s one game left to go in the Football League, and it’s sure to be a quiet one. Promotion is all done and dusted, relegation is sealed, and we can all have a nice relaxing day out at the football with nothing to worry about. Well, not quite.
All three divisions have either the title, automatic promotion, play-off places, relegation, or all of the above still to decide, and football fans across the country will be spending their week staring at the table and gnawing at their fingernails in anticipation of the potential of a joyous, or miserable, Saturday afternoon.
I’ve put together a comprehensive guide to both ends of the table across all three divisions in the EFL so you don’t miss a goal in the key fixtures this weekend. Strap in, it’s the biggest, and best, weekend of the year. Unless your team falls victim to some last-day drama, of course.
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Championship
Promotion
What a final day we have on our hands at the top end of the Championship. If you can only tune into one battle on Saturday, this is the one you want to keep an eye on. Coventry are up, but that’s about all that’s guaranteed! Ipswich, Millwall, and Middlesbrough are all battling for second, Southampton are secure in the play-offs but will be jostling to finish as high up as possible to get the best draw they can, and three teams are separated by a single point for the final play-off place. Wrexham were in League One last year, while Hull and Derby only survived in the Championship on the final day. Fast forward a year, and here we are. One game to decide their fate and a potential shot at the Premier League, whoever makes it in there will be the outsiders, but never write anyone off in the play-offs.
1st: Coventry | +48 GD | 92 Points
2nd: Ipswich | +30 GD | 81 Points
———
3rd: Millwall | +13 GD | 80 Points
4th: Middlesbrough | +25 GD | 79 Points
5th: Southampton | +24 GD | 77 Points
6th: Wrexham | +4 GD | 70 Points
———
7th: Hull | +3 GD | 70 Points
8th: Derby | +9 GD | 69 Points
The final day fixtures:
Derby vs Sheffield United (15th)
Hull vs Norwich (9th)
Ipswich vs QPR (14th)
Millwall vs Oxford (22nd)
Preston (12th) vs Southampton
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
The task is simple for Ipswich, win against an average QPR and you’re up. If they draw, they need to rely on Millwall dropping points and Boro winning by less than 6 goals. If they lose, they need both Millwall and Boro to drop points to ensure they still get promoted. Millwall have the easiest fixture against an already relegated Oxford, but have a history of throwing it away in the big moments. They need to win and hope Ipswich drop points if they’re going to go up automatically. Boro are the least likely to get promoted automatically, with a tricky trip to Wrexham on the cards and the biggest gap to make up. If Ipswich lose, and Millwall drop points, a Boro win will be enough. If Ipswich pick up a single point then Middlesbrough need a 6-goal swing to see themselves promoted. If Ipswich go behind early, it will be interesting to see how Millwall and Middlesbrough respond.
Southampton need a win and to hope that either Millwall, Boro, or both drop points for them to take one of the top play-off places and guarantee a home second leg. Either way, they’re safe in the top 6.
Finally, the battle for 6th. Wrexham will make it into the play-offs if they win and Hull either drop points, or win by the same margin or fewer than they do. If they draw, both Derby and Hull need to drop points to see Wrexham finish 6th, and if they lose they need Derby to lose and Hull to lose by the same or a larger margin. All they can do is go for it and hope that an out of shape Hull don’t outperform them. The path is the same for the tigers, win by more than Wrexham do and they’re definitely in there. If they draw, a Wrexham loss and Derby dropping points will do. If they lose, but Wrexham lose by more and Derby also lose, they’ll sneak in there.
As an end of season treat, indulge me taking my neutral hat off for a second. God I hope that Derby do it. My beloved Rams face off against a washed up Blades team at Pride Park with the play-offs on the line, and we have more than enough previous history of throwing it away. If they draw and both their competitors lose, Derby make it to 6th with their superior goal difference. If Derby win and they both drop points, they’ll also find themselves in 6th. A loss means the play-offs are untenable for the Rams. To make matters worse, immediately after full time I have to go to a birthday party full of Forest fans. Come on you Rams.
Relegation:
Pretty simple one here, it’s all done an dusted. Barring any further points deductions, of course, this is how the relegation picture looks in the Championship:
21st: West Brom | -9 GD | 51 Points
———
22nd: Oxford | -12 GD | 47 Points
23rd: Leicester | -11 GD | 43 Points
24th: Sheff Wednesday | -61 GD | -3 Points
Oxford gave it their best effort, but have fallen just short of the Baggies despite a 2 point deduction for the midlands club. Leicester were gone a few games ago in pathetic fashion, and Wednesday were done before a ball was kicked. The Owls face off against an in-form West Brom to try and make it 2 wins for the season and get themselves off of minus points. That’s about all there is to fight for down there. Preparations for League One have already begun, Kieran has reliably informed me that Oxford are going for the title next year! You U’s.
Preview
The Championship has delivered a blockbuster final day lineup once again, with a shot at English football’s top tier on the line. Automatic promotion and a single play-off place are between three teams each, only one side can feel the joy at full-time. The nerves won’t settle until every whistle has blown, I wouldn’t put it past this season to see it all flip on it’s head in added time.
League One
Promotion
With the title already in the hands of Lincoln’s centurions, and Cardiff not far behind in a guaranteed second place, automatic promotion is done and dusted in League One. To make up for that, only one place in the play-offs is confirmed going into the final day, with 5 teams at war for those final 3 positions. Here’s how the race looks going into the weekend:
3rd: Bolton | +19 GD | 75 Points
4th: Stockport | +11 GD | 74 Points
5th: Bradford | +6 GD | 74 Points
6th: Stevenage | +2 GD | 72 Points
———
7th: Luton | +11 GD | 71 Points
8th: Plymouth | +11 GD | 70 Points
Fixtures are as follows:
Barnsley (13th) vs Stockport
Bolton vs Luton
Exeter (21st) vs Bradford
Northampton (24th) vs Plymouth
Stevenage vs Wigan (16th)
Bolton have sealed a top six place once again, and they’ll be hoping this is finally their year for promotion. A win guarantees them 3rd place and a favourable play-off draw, anything less could see them drop to 5th and have to play away in the second leg. They play a Luton side that have their own play-off ambitions. After a dreadful start, the Hatters have been in scintillating form under Jack Wilshere as of late, and can squeeze into the top six should they draw, Stevenage lose, and Plymouth fail to win. If the Hatters claim all three points they just need either Stevenage to drop points or one of Bradford or Stockport to lose due to their goal difference being so high. It could be a miraculous turnaround.
Stockport and Bradford’s situations are identical, just one point guarantees them a top six place. If they lose, they’re at the mercy of Luton as a Hatters win would see at least one of them drop from the play-offs. If Stevenage win as well, it would see both Bradford and Stockport miss out despite spending the majority of the season in the promotion places. If it’s just Luton that win, only Bradford will miss out due to their goal difference, unless Stockport lose by 6 more goals than the Bantams. Never say never.
Stevenage know a win against Wigan keeps them safely in the play-offs, and anything less could spell disaster. If they draw, both Luton and Plymouth can overtake them with a victory. A loss means Luton could go above them with just a draw due to goal difference. Wigan have nothing left to play for, so it should be a routine victory for Alex Revell’s side, but you can never rule out some late drama this season.
Plymouth’s situation is the clearest, win and they’ll get into the top six as long as Stevenage and Luton both drop points. Easy as that. Argyle sat rock bottom of the division in the early stages, so to see them up here is just a step short of miraculous. Immense credit should go to Tom Cleverley, and the board for sticking by him through tough times. Can they make a big push on the final day?
Relegation
Just one spot to play for at the bottom end of League One after Rotherham, Port Vale, and Northampton have already had their fates sealed. Leyton Orient were a play-off side last year, and have the league’s player of the year and top scorer in Dom Ballard, but could see themselves drop to League Two in the final day. Exeter are the other side at risk, the table is as follows:
20th: Leyton Orient | -12 GD | 51 Points
———
21st: Exeter City | -8 GD | 49 Points
And they play:
Exeter vs Bradford (5th)
Leyton Orient vs Burton (18th)
Simply put, Exeter have to win. Their marginally superior goal difference means that, if they can pick up a shock result over Bradford and Orient drop points against Burton, the Grecians will stay up. It’s a similar story for the O’s, a win guarantees safety but anything less means they’re relying on Bradford to do them a favour. It could end up going down to the final seconds of the game this weekend, and Exeter have already proven they’ve got a dramatic last-gasp goalkeeper goal in them! Have they used up their one?
Preview
The play-offs in League One are a mess! Anyone can finish anywhere, and nobody has any idea who they might end up playing when the dust finally settles. Try your best to keep up with the scores, the live league table is certainly your friend this weekend! With just one spot in the relegation zone left to play for, it’s a much simpler equation down the bottom. Exeter are the favourites to go, but Orient are 7 without a win while Exeter are 4 unbeaten. We could see some amazing scenes at the bottom end of League One this weekend.
League Two
Promotion
Even with 45 games played, nothing is quite decided yet at either end of League Two! At the sharp end, MK Dons and Bromley have confirmed promotion, but either can still win the title. Cambridge, Salford, and Notts County can all still sneak into that final automatic promotion place, while the remaining two will have to fight it out in the play-offs with Grimsby and either Chesterfield or Swindon, who face off on the final day to decide that last play-off place. Going into the final day, the table looks like this:
1st: MK Dons | +45 GD | 85 Points
2nd: Bromley | +23 GD | 84 Points
3rd: Cambridge | + 33 GD | 81 Points
———
4th: Salford | +10 GD | 80 Points
5th: Notts County | +22 GD | 79 Points
6th: Grimsby | +24 GD | 77 Points
7th: Chesterfield | +14 GD | 76 Points
———
8th: Swindon | +12 GD | 76 Points
And the fixtures are:
Bromley vs Walsall (12th)
Crawley (22nd) vs Salford
Crewe (10th) vs Cambridge
Fleetwood (15th) vs MK Dons
Notts County vs Bristol Rovers (14th)
Tranmere (20th) vs Grimsby
Swindon vs Chesterfield
MK Dons know a win at Fleetwood guarantees them the title. Bromley will need to win and hope MK drop points, a draw won’t be enough due to Paul Warne’s sides’ far superior goal difference. Unless Fleetwood stick 23 past the league leaders, that is.
The final automatic promotion place will be Cambridge’s as long as they claim all three points in Crewe. The Alex are a tough opponent, but 4 losses from their last 5 has seen them drop out of the play-off race, Cambridge will be hoping to cruise through this game to avoid having to deal with the play-offs. Again, due to goal difference, only a Salford win at struggling Crawley coupled with Cambridge dropping points would see Karl Robinson’s side promoted automatically, you really do start to see how vital a good GD can be when it goes down to the wire. Goal difference also means that Cambridge have to lose and Salford drop points for a Notts County win to see them promoted in third place, their opponents Bristol Rovers have also won 10 from their last 11, so it won’t be simple for the Magpies. Cambridge are in pole position for promotion, can Lee Bell’s Crewe cause an upset and leave the door open for one of the other sides to sneak in there?
Grimsby are guaranteed a play-off place, and are just playing for position against relegation-battling Tranmere. A higher finishing position would mean a more favourable play-off, having the home leg 2nd if you finish 4th or 5th. Typically it would also mean facing an easier opponent, but will all these sides so closely matched and so strong, there are no simple games in this play-off. A Mariners win would see them leapfrog Salford if they lose, and Notts if they fail to win. With Tranmere looking dreadful and County facing the unbeatable Bristol Rovers, I wouldn’t discount Grimsby in the battle for those stronger play-off positions.
Finally, perhaps the game of the weekend, Chesterfield travel to Swindon for a straight shoot-out for the play-offs. This is what the EFL is all about, God bless the random fixture computer. Swindon’s assignment is simple, arrest the slide and beat Chesterfield to make the play-offs. Chesterfield know they just have to avoid defeat to cling onto that play-off place. The goal difference gap is too large to swing themselves into 5th for a better draw, but they could both overtake Grimsby into 6th if the Mariners fail to take all 3 points in Tranmere. It all comes down to this, one game for a shot at two games for a shot at one game for promotion. No pressure.
Relegation
Barrow are, barring a monumental goal difference swing, all-but relegated back into non-league, but there are still four sides fighting to avoid joining them in the drop zone on the final day. The bottom five currently looks like this:
20th: Tranmere | -25 GD | 40 Points
21st: Newport | -30 GD | 40 Points
22nd: Crawley | -24 GD | 39 Points
———
23rd: Harrogate | -28 GD | 39 Points
24th: Barrow | -32 GD | 36 Points
And their fixtures:
Barrow vs Newport
Crawley vs Salford (4th)
Harrogate vs Barnet (9th)
Tranmere vs Grimsby (6th)
Barrow would need to beat Newport by a few goals and hope Crawley get beat heavily by Salford if they’re going to survive. If Harrogate or Crawley pick up even a single point between them, it’s all over for Barrow.
Harrogate face a strong Barnet side, but the Bees have nothing left to play for. If they win, Tranmere, Newport, and Crawley would all have to also record wins to see the Yorkshire side still go down, which is certainly unlikely. A win gives them a great shot at survival, and if Crawley lose to Salford then Harrogate would just require a draw. They could even stay up with a loss if Crawley get beat by a margin of 5 or more goals than Harrogate get beat by, not likely, but not impossible.
Crawley are winless in 4 and face the tricky task of an automatic-promotion chasing Salford on the final day. Thinks look bleak for Colin Kazim-Richards’ side. As long as Harrogate lose, Crawley just have to avoid getting absolutely battered to stay up. A point would be enough for them if either Newport or Tranmere lose, due to their superior (if you can call -24 superior) goal difference. And a win guarantees them safety as long as Newport and Tranmere don’t both win as well as Harrogate winning by a margin of 5 or more greater than Crawley’s winning margin. In short, just win.
Newport are the only side who play away on the final day, but also have the easiest fixture on paper with a trip to rock-bottom Barrow. The task for them is simple, win to guarantee safety. Anything less and they’re relying on other teams to do their work for them. If they draw, they’d be safe as long as Crawley and Harrogate don’t both win and Tranmere don’t pick up a point. A loss leaves them vulnerable as both sides below them would just need to draw due to goal difference. In this scenario, Tranmere would need to lose by 6 more goals than Newport to go down instead of the Welsh side. Newport, like everyone else, just need to win.
Finally, Tranmere. They’re in freefall, with just 1 win in 14, but that 1 could be crucial. Their situation is nearly identical to Newport’s, win and they’re safe. Draw, and Newport, Crawley, and Harrogate would all have to win to see them down. And if they lose, Newport and Crawley would overtake them with just a point, and so would Harrogate if they lose by 4 clear goals.
Preview
It’s an all-action day at both ends in League Two, and one that’s sure to see many twists and turns along the way. We could see 4 teams dip in and out of the drop zone through the day, 3 separate teams take hold of that final automatic spot, and we have a straight shoot-out for 7th in Swindon. 46 games later, a year of their lives, all down to this. Get your goal notifications on everyone, you don’t want to miss a beat of this final day.