League Two Relegation Battle Special
Credit: JSvideos
It’s the final few weeks of the season and promotion parties are beginning to rage across the EFL. Lincoln fans are still hungover, the champagne is on ice in Coventry, and the people of Cardiff and Bromley are all-but ready to slip into their dancing shoes. At the bottom end of League Two, however, a very different reality is dawning upon the sides looking to retain their football league status. Relegation is difficult for a club to take at the best of times, but dropping out of the football league altogether can be devastating, and it could be years before we see either of the teams that go down reemerge in the fourth tier. With their lives on the line, who will pull themselves clear of the drop in time to avoid falling to non-league purgatory?
Only three sides who have been relegated from League Two have returned at all since 2018/19, with only Grimsby managing to bounce back at the first time of asking after finishing 6th and advancing through the play-offs. What’s even more frightening for the clubs in the mix this year is the fact that, in the same time period, we’ve seen Yeovil and Scunthorpe drop as far as the National League North & South, with now-confirmed relegated Morecambe joining that group next season, and Macclesfield go out of business completely. Simply put, relegation from the football league can be as good as a death sentence if you let the financial implications get on top of you, not to mention the impact it can have on the hard-working staff at the club that may not be able to remain employed as restrictions tighten. The main stumbling block in the way of relegated teams returning to the division from whence they came, which we see almost every season in the rest of the EFL, is that there is too much quality in the National League to justify just two promotion places. Couple that with the fact that they he lack of relegation spaces in League Two allows teams to stagnate for years never they finally face any consequences, and you often find that the teams coming up from non-league are significantly better than those they replace.
Since 2021/22, 8 teams have been promoted to League Two from the National League:
21/22 Champions Stockport finished 4th in their first season before winning the league the year after and are now on course to reach the League One play-offs for the second season in a row since promotion. Grimsby went up through the play-offs that year and immediately had a solid season, finishing 11th. They then battled relegation the following year before getting back on the saddle, missing out on the play-offs by 2 points last season. They currently occupy 8th place, a point and a game in hand behind the play-offs.
In 22/23, Wrexham won the league and were immediately promoted again to League One, and then again to the Championship where they currently find themselves in the play-off race. They went up besides Notts County, who managed a measly 107 points and had to get themselves promoted via the play-offs. They finished a respectable 14th following promotion, before finishing 6th and losing in the play-offs last year. They’re now in 4th, just a point from automatic promotion with 3 games remaining.
2023/24 saw Chesterfield crowned champions and Bromley follow them up through the play-offs. The Spireites made it to the play-offs in their first season, losing in the semi-final, and are on course to make it into the top 7 again should they beat Grimsby to that final spot. Bromley were only 4 points shy of the play-offs in their first year, finishing 11th, and are now top of the League Two table and look certain to make a first-ever jump to the third tier.
Finally, in 24/25 we saw Barnet win the title and Oldham follow them, despite finishing 23 points behind fellow play-off side York City. Neither side look like they’ll make it to the play-offs, but Barnet are just 2 points shy and Oldham are only 2 behind them.
The key factor is, none of them have been relegated. Not even close. So with all these teams coming up, and staying up, comes the opposite effect of those going down staying down. This year, five teams in League Two are averaging less than a point per game. In any other division, that’s immediate relegation, but three of these teams will stay up this year. And at least one of them will be in the league the season after too, as still only two can go down the following year.
This bottle neck of teams from League Two to the National League allows the poorly-run fourth tier clubs to stagnate for multiple years on end while significantly better National League sides have to battle for a single automatic promotion place or risk the lottery of the play-offs. This season, York and Rochdale are already well over the 100 points mark with games to spare, Carlisle and Boreham Wood will probably clear 90, and Scunthorpe and Forest Green won’t be far behind. Despite the great efforts of all these teams, only two will be promoted while three of the frankly sub-standard League Two teams will continue to play at that level. Time for three up, I think.
There’s still the small matter to decide as to who will actually be dropping out of the EFL this season, and all the contenders were in action this weekend to varying degrees of success. I’ll run you through their results, how it leaves the table, and preview the run-in to see who has what it takes to stay up. With just 4 points separating the 5 of them, it’s tighter than ever at the foot of the football league.
Chesterfield 1-1 Tranmere
Tranmere had picked up just 1 point in their previous 10 games, hadn’t scored in 5, and were sleepwalking towards relegation. They travelled to a Chesterfield side on the edge of the play-offs having won 4 of their last 5. The stage was set for a fairly routine Spireites win but, in true end-of-season EFL madness fashion, that wasn’t ever the case.
Chesterfield ‘keeper Ryan Boot made a great stop to deny Omari Patrick from the penalty spot early on, and at that point it felt like Tranmere might never score another goal again. Chesterfield midfielder Tom Naylor was on the end of a James Berry cross just before half time, ghosting between defenders and leaping unchallenged to flick the ball beyond Marko Marosi in the Tranmere goal to give his side a 1-0 lead at the break.
It wasn’t long until Tranmere were on level terms. Just 8 minutes after the restart, Sam Finley played a neat one-two with Patrick Brough down the left before he slotted the ball home unmarked in the box. Tranmere’s first goal in over 500 minutes of football had finally come, and they looked good value for it.
The rest of the game was frustrating for. Chesterfield, as they saw significantly more of the ball but rarely threatened to do anything with it. In fact, it was Tranmere who had the better of the chances on the day and, especially considering their penalty miss, they might feel aggrieved to only leave Derbyshire with a point. Still, it was a huge point in the context of survival for the visitors, and one they didn’t expect to leave with. It’s still so tight at the bottom that that missed penalty could end up making all the difference come the end of the campaign.
Bristol Rovers 3-1 Crawley
It wasn’t too long ago that Rovers were being included in conversations about relegation. However, following a staggering 9 wins in 11 games, with their only loss being a narrow 1-0 defeat to league-leading Bromley, the Gas are now well clear of the drop zone. With the recently announced news that gaffer Steve Evans has been given the job on a permanent basis, Bristol Rovers could be a serious team to look out for next season.
Crawley, on the other hand, have been stuck near the bottom for a while. They were only relegated from League One last season, missing out on survival by a point on the final day to Burton Albion, but are now staring down the barrel of a potential return to non-league for the first time since 2010/11. They showed signs of life under new head coach Colin Kazim-Richards, winning his first two games in charge, but have since lost the subsequent two to leave them teetering above the drop.
Crawley were split open far too easily in the first half, and that ended up being their downfall. The first goal was just one pass from centre-half to centre-forward, the ball cut through the wide-open Crawley midfield and backline and wound up at the feet of Ellis Harrison, who gave the home side the lead with a neat finish. They were carved open just as easily again only 4 minutes later, a raking ball finding an unmarked Joel Senior out wide, who played it across to Mees Rijks for a tap-in. Just 30 minutes played, and some horror defending had left Crawley two down against the most in-form team in the EFL.
The visitors did actually manage to create a decent volume of chances, finishing the game with 23 shots, but they only managed to divert 4 of them on target. It took until the 80th minute for them to get themselves back in the game, courtesy of substitute Louie Watson scoring just his second goal of his first-team career. Watson was actually a teammate of his gaffer Kazim-Richards at Derby, and it looks like he might be the manager he needs to get him playing regularly and playing well. He played a lovely one-two with Louie Copley, skinned his defender and then fired his shot hard enough that the ‘keeper getting a hand to it couldn’t stop it ending up in the net. Scored with the confidence of a player used to scoring at a much higher rate.
It looked like they were about to draw level too, as Harry McKirdy was bearing down on goal. Tom Lockyer brought him down with a cynical tackle just outside the area, and was rightly dismissed, but the chance was gone. As the visitors continued to push forwards, Rovers hit them on the break in added time to add a third and make the scoreline look significantly more comfortable than it actually was. Crawley’s makeshift backline was their downfall, but they showed plenty of promise. Promise isn’t good enough at this late stage, however, and they’ll need to pick up some points soon if they’re going to stay in the football league.
Barnet 3-2 Barrow
Barrow currently sit inside the relegation zone and are showing very little signs of improvement that can get them out of this mess. A shock four points from games against the top two in Bromley and MK Dons were swiftly followed up by two more losses to keep them in the bottom two, this game was a damning indictment of their survival chances as they simply refused to defend.
Both Barrow goals were beauties, Josh Gordon scored a lovely one from range and Rekeem Harper put away a fantastic solo goal following a run through the middle. The problem was that Barnet managed three fairly routine goals in the midst of all this. Barrow took the lead through Gordon before Kabongo Tshimanga and Mark Shelton scored either side of half time to give Barnet the advantage. An undefended cross into the box and a through ball to a wide-open forward was all it took to break down the Barrow resolve. Harper restored parity on 73 minutes before Callum Stead nodded home from a cross that was, yet again, not defended out wide or in the box. Barnet took the 3-2 lead in the 84th minute and that’s how it would end, another defeat to add to Barrow’s collection as they stumble back into non-league for the first time since their COVID promotion.
Newport 2-1 Harrogate
The biggest game of the weekend at the bottom of League Two was, without doubt, this six pointer involving two of the most at-risk sides in the division.
Harrogate have been rooted to the bottom of the division for ages, and have comfortably been the worst team in the football league. A 5 game unbeaten run sparked dreams of a miraculous recovery, before 6 losses from their next 8 games dashed those hopes once more. Still, with everyone else failing to pick up points regularly, they’re still in with a slim chance of staying up. Had they won in Wales, they’d have actually pulled themselves out of the bottom two with three games remaining, but their hosts got the better of them in a massive game at Rodney Parade.
It was untidy and uninspiring, just as any game at the bottom of League Two should be, but Christian Fuchs’ side got the job done. Nathaniel Opoku gave the hosts the lead early on, running into a wide open gap in the Harrogate backline following a poor attempt at a clearance. Harrogate hit back 5 minutes before the break following some similarly weak defending from Newport, the Welsh side allowing Jacob Slater to burst into the box unchallenged to cut the ball back to Jack Evans to finish smartly.
With the scores level and the game cagey, it would either take a moment of idiocy or genius to split these two. Thankfully for the neutrals, it was the latter. With 58 minutes on the clock, the ball was bouncing between the sides as they headed it back and forth on the edge of the Harrogate area. James Carole eventually took control of it, bringing it down and laying it off to Joe Thomas in space about 25 yards from goal. The wing-back took a touch to set himself before hammering an inch-perfect shot into the top-right corner to give his side the lead. Not a bad time to score your first of the season, and what a way to do it!
With chances few and far between, that’s how it finished in Newport. 2-1 to the home side in what may end up being their biggest result of the season if they stay up. For Harrogate, it could be the game that condemns them to a seemingly inevitable relegation back to non-league. They came up with Barrow, and it looks like they could be going back down together too. How romantic.
As It Stands
20th: Tranmere - PL 42, -23 GD, 37 Points
21st: Crawley - PL 43, -24 GD, 37 Points
22nd: Newport - PL 43, -30 GD, 37 Points
———
23rd: Barrow - PL 43, -27 GD, 36 Points
24th: Harrogate - PL 43, -31 GD, 33 Points
The Run-In
Tranmere:
Bristol Rovers (H)
Cheltenham (A)
MK Dons (A)
Grimsby (H)
Crawley:
Shrewsbury (H)
Accrington (A)
Salford (H)
Newport:
Cheltenham (A)
Oldham (H)
Barrow (A)
Barrow:
Walsall (H)
Cambridge (A)
Newport (H)
Harrogate:
Colchester (H)
Walsall (A)
Barnet (H)
The biggest fixture here could be Newport travelling to Barrow on the last day of the season. If Barrow manage to keep within touching distance, that could be a straight shootout for survival. I think is speak for everyone except Barrow and Newport fans when I say that’s exactly what we want to see.
Tranmere have the trickiest run-in, but with the benefit of a 4 point gap and the “best” goal difference of the back, they might just be safe despite their fixture list.
Crawley will also fancy their chances, again 4 points clear and with two upcoming games against average lower-mid-table sides with nothing to play for to target points in. They have high-flying Salford on the final day, but with Salfords propensity for bottling it, if they have something on the line then Crawley might even be favourites!
Newport will probably need to beat Cheltenham at least, and hope Barrow continue to lose games, to ensure the Barrow match is a dead-rubber come the final day. The last thing they’ll want is a winner-takes-all survival game to contend with. Oldham’s play-off dreams look dead in the water, but they should still have too much for any of these sides to compete with.
Barrow’s fixture list is pretty tricky. Walsall, while only playing for pride, should simply have too much talent available to them to be troubled by a team like Barrow. That leaves Cambridge, who will be fighting to the last for an automatic promotion place, and Newport, who are a relegation rival. Safe to say, if Barrow stay up they will have earned it.
Harrogate have the highest mountain to climb, and it feels almost insurmountable. Every team they have to play have been in-and-around the play-off picture all season, and are teeming with quality. They’ve proven their ability to beat teams of a similar standard, turning over Grimsby 3-1 on Good Friday, but they’ll have to win at least 2 of their remaining games to have a hope of staying up. I fear it’s an unlikely dream.
There you have it, the League Two relegation battle. With so much on the line, the pressure only ramps up with each passing game. Who do you think has what it takes to reclaim their position in the EFL for another season? And who will drop into the non-league abyss, never to be seen again?