Lincoln Vs Portsmouth: Big Bet Preview
Lincoln City Vs Portsmouth
(Sat 22nd Aug, 12:30PM UK - Sky Sports)
Week one has been and gone and what a week it was! We saw some amazing performances across the Championship as all the players, new and old, blew the cobwebs off and stretched out their legs ready for 46 games of unfiltered chaos. There’s been handball goals, last minute derby-day free kicks, and dramatic comebacks already. Oh Championship, you do spoil us. We also saw some amazing Tipple scores from some first timers - including a perfect 6/6! Tipple’s very own Kieran, Will and Schoey put together a solid 13 points (solid, that is, if it wasn’t between the three of them!) so they might want to pay a bit closer attention to this week’s Big Bet Preview as I, of course, had a Bolton win to start the season! Let’s hope I can hang on to my 100% record as we get ready for GW2.
This week’s Big Bet is a battle between two of League One’s recent title winners, as reigning holders Lincoln host the 2024 champs Portsmouth. The Imps are looking to retain their Championship status this season after their miraculous promotion has seen them reach the second tier for the first time since 1961! Pompey, on the other hand, have survived two consecutive Championship campaigns and are looking to build into a solid mid-table side that can be well clear of the relegation picture. In essence, they want to be a Swansea. Both suffered a disappointing opening day defeat, but there were some bright sparks amidst the gloom. Can either of these teams turn their early fortunes around and record their first three points of 26/27? It’s another tricky one to call in this week’s Tipple Big Bet!
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Lincoln City came into this year’s Championship campaign with a huge point to prove. Many outside the club, myself included, saw them lose their manager and their best player over the summer without really replacing either with a recognisable name and automatically assumed the Imps were set for an immediate relegation back to whence they came. Part of that thinking is absolutely down to the name on the front of the shirt. They hit a massive 103 points last time out, only bettered at that level once in history by the ridiculously monied Birmingham team from the year prior. If a side with more Championship pedigree had blitzed their way through League One and promoted a new manger from within a winning system, I think people would be a lot less down on them as a whole. They’ve shown some sparks of quality already and are sticking to the same counter-attacking style that caused teams no end of bother in the third tier last season, even letting a fairly attritional side in Derby have 71% of the ball in their Carabao Cup game! There’s no denying that Lincoln are a small fish in an enormous pond, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have what it takes to compete with the whales. A statement victory over a now established Championship side in front of their home fans would be a great way to get their season up and running and announce themselves on this stage.
Pompey are a difficult one to read. In John Mousinho they have one of the division’s most promising young mangers, and one who is clearly committed to the project as he approaches the four year anniversary of his appointment as Portsmouth boss this coming January. On paper it should all be happy and rosy. Their well-documented catastrophic financial collapse is now distant in the rear-view mirror, and they‘ve clawed their way back up to the second tier playing good football under a fantastic coach. Ten years on from their double relegation down to League Two, Pompey were back in the Championship having won two titles on their way there. So why are some of their fans so glum? The general feeling seems to be confusion as to what the plan is now. Investment has been sparse and cautious, resulting in them picking up some incredible bargains along the way, but also being priced out of a play-off race as similar sized teams commit more spending and bring in objectively better players. If Bristol City, Derby, Wrexham, and Hull can all bring in big names and push for (or even reach and win) the play-offs, then why can’t a team with a committed fanbase the size of Pompey’s? They’ve spent a bit more freely this summer, with an emphasis on bringing in young talent from abroad to either shift for a profit or drag them to that next level themselves, but there’s still a distinct lack of quality Championship experience being brought to Portsmouth. Their approach is careful and measured, but may end up biting them if their competitors blow past them by bringing in big names to win now. Can Pompey’s new crop help them build on last season’s 18th place finish? If you’re targeting any game to get your first points on the board, it has to be an early trip to Lincoln.
Form
After a whopping two competitive* games this season, it’s hard to get a solid read on either side.
Lincoln were good value for their 2-1 win at Pride Park in the cup, restricting their hosts to minimal chance creation and only conceding from a long-range wonder strike. Their goals came from a set-piece and some fantastic direct football for the second. They moved the ball quickly and with purpose, getting down the throat of Derby before they had the time to regroup and punishing them. Similarly, against Boro, their goal came directly from a long ball from the ‘keeper that was flicked on and fizzed across the box for Adam Reach to hammer home against his former club. Lincoln are a side that are happy for you to have the ball, as long as you’re aware that as soon as you cede possession they will be on top of you in an instant. Fun to watch, and a nightmare to play against if you struggle to take your chances.
Portsmouth have suffered back-to-back 3-1 losses to West Ham and QPR. Damn those fancy London clubs. Despite the score-lines, it’s been a fairly positive opening to the season for Pompey. They controlled a good chunk of the possession at the London Stadium and created a decent amount of chances for themselves, ultimately being undone by the sheer imbalance in squad level between themselves and Jarrod Bowen’s West Ham United. It was a similar story on the opening day against QPR, too. Portsmouth looked lively and opened the scoring through a fantastic long-range effort, the only difference between the two sides in the end being QPR’s ability to actually take the chances they created as opposed to wasting them. It’s the kind of performance you can abide and accept this early on in the season as everyone finds their feet, they’ve just got to hope it’s a learning experience and not the beginning of an unfortunate trend.
Neither took home a victory on the opening day, but both have shown signs of life that point to positive seasons ahead! Lincoln and Portsmouth alike will be eyeing this game up as a must-win if they’re to achieve their goals going forwards.
*If you count the Carabao Cup.
Head-to-head
These two historic sides have actually spent the majority of their histories a league, or two, or four apart from one another. That means that, despite existing alongside each other for 128 years, they’ve only faced off on 28 occasions in total, and only 10 times since 1983! Those 10 matchups all came in League One, as they spent 5 season in the division together from 2019 until Pompey’s promotion in 2024.
It doesn’t make for great reading for Lincoln fans, as Portsmouth ran out winners in 7 of those 10 games, drawing twice and only losing to the Imps on a single occasion. A young loanee by the name of Morgan Rogers got the winner for Lincoln that day, I wonder what he’s up to these days?
The reality is that throughout this period Portsmouth were one of the top dogs in League One, while Lincoln were there to make up the numbers. Now they’re on a much more even playing field, can Lincoln start to chip away at Pompey’s recent dominance with a win at Sincil Bank this weekend?
Key Matchup
Freddie Draper vs Conor Shaughnessy
One constant across each of Lincoln’s goals so far this season has been the heavy involvement of Freddie Draper. He’s a centre forward that isn’t known for his goal output, but rather his link-up play and the way he brings his teammates into the game around him. His role is fairly simple: win the ball in the air and win his duels, bring it under control and find an onrushing teammate to kickstart a devastating counter attack. And he’s brilliant at it. The ball seems to stick to him and this inspires the confidence needed for this system to thrive as the midfield and wing-backs can commit themselves at full-pelt beyond him, assured that Draper will retain possession and find them with a neat pass. With 7 league goals to his name last season, he’s also more than capable of punishing you if you think he’s solely a link-up man and let him wriggle free in the box. Could a matchup against a shaky Pompey back four be the time for him to grab his first at this level?
One of the men tasked with putting a stop to Draper’s play is centre-half Conor Shaughnessy. The Irish defender has been a bit-part player since the club returned to the Championship, but has played the full 90 minutes in both of their games so far this season. At his best he is technically pretty solid and incredible in the air, and should provide a stern test for Freddie Draper to try and match in that area. After a tricky start to the season, wether or not he can reach that level is a different story.
Neither side are built around an out-and-out goal-scorer, and both will rely on their well-tuned systems and shapes to bring them home the points. With Draper at the heart of Lincoln’s buildup and Shaughnessy equipped with the tools to stop him, the battle between these two could decide which side this closely-matched fixture falls down on.
Preview
They don’t make these easy to call, do they?
It’ll be another close contest with both sides keen to get their accounts open for the season with a big win. Going with my gut and feeling out the vibe worked last week, so it’ll have to be my strategy again here with so little football to go by. Lincoln will be bang up for it for their first home game at this level in two generations, and their fans will be on it from minute one. I just can’t see a world in which they let themselves lose this game. Even if I do think Pompey will finish 10-15 points above the Imps, I think the home side will have their day in the sun this Saturday. Home win for GW2’s Big Bet!
Let me know who you’ve gone for and, most importantly, how you settled on them! This might be the most difficult Big Bet I’ve ever had to preview, with how early it is in the campaign it’s near impossible to decipher if either of these teams have what it takes. Will it be the plucky underdog story of the Imps or Pompey’s Championship experience that gets them over the line? Good luck picking a side for this weekend’s Big Bet!