Chesterfield vs Tranmere: Big Bet Preview
Chesterfield vs Tranmere
(SAT 3rd Oct, 12:30PM UK - Sky Sports)
Thank goodness all that Man City nonsense has given us something to talk about, because this international break is dragging. The break has managed to work its vile tendrils into the once-sacred third and fourth tiers, leaving us with just 11 games across the EFL to satiate us this weekend. The Chesterfield fans can count them all on their fingers! We used to be a proper country. There were wicked whispers of a Tipple bye week this weekend - but who wants that? Certainly not I, as I’m looking to extend my already handsome lead over the rest of the Tipple boys even further and inch closer to that number 1 spot in the global table. With just 11 to choose from, the Big Bet pickings were as slim as they’ve ever been. It stands to reason that we simply had to go for the only televised EFL game of the weekend, with Tranmere Rovers travelling to Chesterfield in a clash at the sharp end of League Two. The Spireites came into the season with high hopes and have been their usual unpredictable selves so far, while Tranmere have started brilliantly compared to the tragedy that was their 25/26 campaign. Their opening 8 games have left them level on points and teetering just outside the play-off picture. Chesterfield will want to be aiming for the automatics, and Tranmere are just happy to be there. Who will take advantage of some of their rivals not playing to get some much needed points on the board? It’s sure to be an intriguing battle in this weekend’s Diet-EFL edition of the Big Bet!
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If you’d have told Tranmere fans last season that they’d be level on points with Chesterfield at this stage they’d have been buzzing. If you’d have said the same to the Chesterfield fans I think you might have triggered some heart murmurs.
Rovers were, without mincing my words, horrendous last season. From the turn of the year to their final-day survival they managed a mighty three wins, three draws, and seventeen losses. Just twelve points across the whole second half of the season! The Chesterfield fans can count that on their fingers… Okay, I’ll stop…
How do you solve a problem like Tranmere? Let a load of your rubbish players go on frees and replace them with some good footballers instead. Sounds simple, doesn’t it? Why isn’t everyone doing this? It says a lot about the quality of last season’s squad when you see that out of sixteen players released by Tranmere in summer, only five have been picked up by League Two clubs, and none by clubs of a higher level. The remaining eleven are either playing at a lower level, are still without a club, or, in the case of Joe Murphy, have retired. Stark.
They’ve bucked their usual trend and actually recruited well to replenish their squad too, introducing a mix of youth, players playing at the top of their game, and a few experienced heads with bags of quality and hundreds of EFL games under their belt. Joel Senior has been a solid pickup from Bristol Rovers, Bobby Faulkner is a brilliant signing on loan from Doncaster, and Harrison Male was being courted by more than half the division after leaving York City for a reason. The real big hitters were Tom Ince and Will Vaulks, neither of which were expected to turn up at Prenton Park this summer. 33 year-old Vaulks has had a storied career, played mostly at Championship level, and even made 39 appearances in the second tier just last season for Oxford. Ince also made a number of Championship appearances last year for Watford, and is the 9th highest scoring player in the division’s history, making him by far and away the highest scoring non-striker and one of only two players that aren’t explicitly centre forwards in the top 30. He also happens to be one of my favourite players of all time. Their new signings have gotten off to a flyer, and they look a completely different team because of it. Crucially, they managed to keep hold of the few bright sparks from last season and build around them, with Nathan Smith still lining up the heart of their defence and Charlie Whitaker, whose goals almost single-handedly kept them in the division, forming part of their new-look attack. Continuity is important, and changing your whole team at once can be a risk. But if they’re all as bad as Tranmere’s were then it can’t get much worse.
If you’re a Spireites fan thinking this is all a bit Tranmere-forward, I did just write a match report on last weekend’s game against Cheltenham which contained quite a lot of Chesterfield-based analysis, so I implore you to give that a read. To distill it down for you:
Chesterfield have loads of quality, particularly in attacking midfield. Paul Cook loves to coach exhilarating attacking sides that are brilliant to watch when it’s all going well, but this style does leave his defence exposed, especially when he has a 39 year-old at the heart of it. Individual errors at both ends have been holding them back so far, both goals against Cheltenham were easily preventable and Lee Bonis simply cannot finish. But you knew all that already.
Both Chesterfield and Tranmere dropped points last weekend in dominant displays that probably should’ve seen them claim all three, or at least one in Chesterfield’s case. They’ll both want to make amends here, but only one can come away victories. Will new-look Tranmere shine, or will Paul Cook’s experienced side finally take the gloss off their fantastic start to the season?
Form
I’m going to discount games in the EFL Trophy here because I, on a fundamental level, just cannot take that competition seriously. There’s something in my soul that won’t let me. I think I’m still emotionally scarred from seeing my team lose to Manchester City’s financially doped-up reserves side. I demand compensation.
The visitors have proven themselves to be hard to beat, unfortunately for them they’ve also been hard to lose to. They have 2 wins, just 1 loss, and 5 draws to their name already and they’re yet to win on the road. With the 4th best defensive record in the league, it’s putting them in the other end that’s been their issue. As opposed to wasteful Chesterfield, Tranmere aren’t creating the chances in the first place to even go about missing them. When the chances do come, they finish them at about the rate you’d expect, they just don’t come often enough. With players like Ince and Whitaker at their disposal, they have more than enough quality in attack, so you have to wonder if Joe Ironside is able to be the starting centre forward of a side that’s going to challenge for the play-offs. In 554 minutes played so far this season he has only taken 4 shots, two of which were penalties, one of which he missed. If your striker can’t get into a good enough position to take an opportunity, what’s the point in investing so heavily in good creative players behind him?
Chesterfield have been basically the opposite, creating loads but being wasteful to the point where you have to consider the possibility they’re doing it all for a laugh. They’re second in the league, just 0.1 behind first, for expected goals, yet sit just 8th in the scoring charts. In fact, they’ve created 7.1 more xG than Tranmere and managed to score just 1 more aG (actual goals) in the process. No matter how you feel about the use of xG, it’s clear to even the Neanderthals in Chesterfield that they’re pouring endless great chances down the drain. They lost last time out, but were on a four-game unbeaten run before that and it looked like they might be finally starting to click. They’ve shown flashes of greatness, their 2-0 win over York a particular highlight, while also managing to get pumped by an okay Rotherham team. No team in the fourth tier is ever consistently brilliant, but Chesterfield have been consistently inconsistent since returning to the Football League in 2024. They only lost 9 games all last season, a 4th loss already here could start to cause some unrest in the stands.
Head-to-head
It had been a long twelve years apart for these two sides, who played each other in the 2011/12 League One campaign and then didn’t meet again in a league match until December 2024.
Since their romantic reunion we’ve seen the spoils shared, with a win each in their first season back, 4-0 to Tranmere and 3-0 to Chesterfield respectively at their home grounds, and two 1-1 draws last time out. Tranmere absolutely deserved all three points in the away game towards the back end of last season, and that was when they were in a really terrible state. If Chesterfield can’t even muster enough quality to beat that Tranmere side, can they beat this one?
Key Matchup
Louie Marsh vs Tom Ince
The new kid on the block up against the wise old-timer. A tale as old as time, and early as old as Tom Ince.
Louie Marsh has been nothing short of electric for Chesterfield this season after joining on loan from Sheffield United, hitting 5 goals and registering an assist in his first 7 appearances in blue. Not bad, kid. He’s had a few okay loan moves previously, but this looks like the one where he really announces himself as a top player for the level and a viable option for his parent club going forward. He has his critics, but Paul Cook has a habit of developing players like Marsh exceptionally well. Marsh is a classic goals-forward number 10, less interested in the fashionable creative side of the game and more interested in running at defenders and bending the ball into the net. Only two players take more shots per 90 than Marsh in the division, and he seems to be the only player in the Chesterfield frontline capable of finishing them too. He sees a lot of the ball as high up the pitch as possible, and he only has one thing on his mind. It’s hard not to love him.
You know who he reminds me of? Do you remember Tom Ince? While Ince’s days of double-figure Championship goals seasons at Derby and Blackpool are behind him, he’s still more than able to contribute at this level for Tranmere. He’s a lot less dribbly than he used to be in his younger years, instead opting to move the ball on to a more athletic teammate and find the pocket of space out of possession instead. It’s easier on his knees that way. Even at the grand old age of 34, he’s still threading passes like he always did and, with two crucial goals already, is still always capable of popping up with the goods when called upon.
Who will make the difference this weekend? Will it be the wisened old man, or will young Louie run rings around him?
Preview
It’s hard to get excited about any potential play-off battle this early into the season with so much football left to play, but I think this game will be an interesting marker to see where these two teams actually are. Tranmere have obviously progressed, but with so little football to go off of and so many draws in there it’s hard to decipher wether they’re a real contender or just another Fleetwood/Colchester type. Which, if you’ve been as low as Tranmere have, there is absolutely nothing wrong with by the way.
Chesterfield are an enigma. Are they one of the best teams in the league? Yes. Are they also one of the most frustrating teams in the league? Also yes. If their finishing, or lack thereof, evens itself out then they will fly up the division. If it never does and their attackers are just that bad, it could be a long old year. Tranmere will provide a stern opposition and it will be intriguing to see how Chesterfield go about breaking down a defence that gives very little away. They can’t afford to be wasteful if they only have scraps to feed on.
That being said, I’m backing the boys in bout to get the business done this weekend. Home win for me!
Who are you backing to come out on top here? And have you risked any non-league games in your picks with EFL fixtures few and far between? Good luck, it could be a tough weekend on Tipple for some!