Southampton vs Portsmouth: Big Bet Preview

Southampton vs Portsmouth
(SUN 11th Oct, 12:00PM UK - Sky Sports)

Take down your flags and wipe off your face paint, the international break is OVER! After what feels like an age, we finally have Championship football to look forward to again this weekend, and what a treat the fixture computer has served up for us as a welcome back gift. That’s right, for this week’s Big Bet we travel down to the south coast for one of the EFL’s fiercest Derbies as Southampton take on Pompey! Tonda Eckert received his, admittedly fairly light, punishment after last season’s Saints sins during the break, and I’m sure Portsmouth will spy an opportunity to kick him while he’s down. The Pompey fans are a reasonable, level-headed bunch, I doubt there’ll be any chanting to do with Southampton’s cheating at all this weekend. After all, we’ve drawn a line under it, haven’t we? Will the big binoculars-shaped cloud hanging over Southampton’s heads cause enough of a distraction for Pompey to profit from the chaos? Or will they rally in their siege mentality and knock down their rivals on their way to achieving an unpopular promotion? There’s so much going on, it’s nearly impossible to call! But that’s what makes a really good Big Bet!

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Southampton have started basically how everyone expected, really well. Without their points deduction, which if you haven’t heard was for blatant cheating, they’d be just three points off the top at this stage and comfortably in the conversation for automatic promotion. In all seriousness, there were a lot of questions in pre-season as to wether this Saints team, and by extension Tonda Eckert, were actually any good, or had we all just been swindled into believing they were great last year because they knew their opponents next move before they’d even made it. It turns out, on balance of probability from the small sample size this season, they’re just really good. See Tonda, you didn’t even have to cheat!

Pompey have struggled to start the season, even managing to lose to Derby of all teams. That’s when you know you’ve got it rough. Things have picked up recently though and, after a nice long break, nothing would feel quite as good as crisp, refreshing win away from home against your biggest rivals to really get your season up and running. They will be bang up for this, as should the home team, and I’ll be entirely honest in saying that I expect violence. If you’re watching the game with young children, you may want to avert their eyes.

Can John Mousinho mastermind a famous victory down on the south coast? Or will the Saints go marching on up the league?

Form

Portsmouth come into the weekend three games unbeaten, although the last round of fixtures is a long way away in the rear view mirror now. I almost wonder if form even matters at all this weekend after such a long break, or wether we’re essentially resetting from day one of the season again after a mini pre-season. Still, we’ve got a format to stick to!

Portsmouth’s three unbeaten weren’t hugely convincing, but points are points in this league. They beat a Cardiff side that played so badly that one of their players was driven to punch a Pompey fan in the throat, drew 0-0 away at a poor Charlton side and 2-2 at home in a ding-dong battle with Blackburn. They’ve shown flashes of greatness, particularly their 3-1 win away at Lincoln, but losing to the worst side in the division in Derby 2-0 at home is proof that their soft underbelly from seasons gone by is still very much there to be tickled. Portsmouth have seemed to cope better against sides that want to take the game to them instead of sitting deep, so this matchup against Southampton could suit them. Throw some derby-day chaos in there and who knows what could happen?

Saints somehow lost to Wrexham in their final pre-break game despite having all of the ball and all of the chances and looking great value for a victory on the road in Wales. It was just one of those days where it will not fall for you. We all have them. Prior to that they blew away table-topping Swansea 3-1 and Bristol City 4-1 at St Mary’s, as well as beating Millwall 5-1 and Stoke 3-1 at home earlier this season. Their away form is where they struggle, and they’re yet to win on their travels with just 2 points claimed from a possible 12 this season. Never mind, this weekend’s game is at home anyway!

Both sides are probably fallible, which always makes for a great game. Southampton look unstoppable at home, but Portsmouth thrive playing under the cosh against free-flowing attacks. Something’s got to give this weekend. 

Head-to-head

Thirteen years passed from their last league meeting to their matchups last season, and boy did they spoil us. They played out one of the worst 0-0s you’ve ever seen at St Mary’s, before treating us to a marginally more exciting 1-1 in the return fixture at Fratton Park. Woo! The games last season had more an air of “we can’t lose to these” as opposed to “let’s go out and smash them”, which is disappointing after such a long wait for the rivalry to be renewed. Maybe now the dust has been blown off we can see a real spectacle in this game.

We’re not asking for much, just a game worthy of the hype surrounding it for a change. 5-5, couple of red cards, fans spilling on to the pitch, the basics! Otherwise, what’s the point?

Key Matchup

Cyle Larin vs Ryan Kavuma-McQueen

Cyle Larin is averaging 1.05 goals per 90 in the Championship so far this season. I’m reliably informed by the nerds that that’s pretty good, actually. He’s got 7 goals to his name already, only two behind Portsmouth’s entire total as a team. Simply put, he is a ruthless finisher that is excellent at finding the right positions to get shots off. Some of his goals have been nothing short of sublime, and a striker with as much confidence as Larin has is a danger to anyone. He didn’t feature in Canada’s most recent game so should be fairly fresh for this one, and I know that neither of Pompey’s centre halves will be relishing having to deal with his strength and finishing prowess. Unlucky lads, it’s your job.

In the blue corner, Ryan Kavuma-McQueen has made a lightning start to life as a first-team footballer. The 17 year-old is the latest off the production line at Chelsea’s famous Cobham academy, and even by their lofty standards they have an absolute gem on their hands here. A player of such a young age to be dominating men’s football in the way he is is rarely seen, and that’s because it’s nearly impossible. Don’t get it twisted either, Kavuma-McQueen isn’t getting by avoiding challenges with his mazy dribbling skills, although he does have those, he’s been more than happy to get stuck into the physical side and looks right at home playing with men twice his age. He’s scored one and assisted one already, and there is clearly so much more to come from the youngster. Let’s face it, he won’t be at Pompey long, so this weekend’s game is a great chance for him to announce himself on the big stage and leave the Portsmouth fans with a lasting memory of his phenomenal impact. 

Preview

You’ve got to love derby day. The hatred, the vitriol, the completely blinkered and unwavering support of everything your team does. It’s beautiful.

Southampton come into this game as heavy favourites, and it’s clear to see why. As much as the atmosphere in games like this can throw form and quality out of the window, I’d feel silly if I went for anything other than a home win and Saints just went and ran out comfortable winners. I do think Pompey can cause them problems, I just don’t think they’ll have enough to take home the points.