Cards on the table. I'm an Oxford fan. We're third, three points behind them with a game in hand, and they beat us 3-1 in September. So yes, I'm biased. But that doesn't mean I'm wrong.
Huddersfield are top of League One. The bookies have them favourites. There's a local in the dugout, Joe Taylor's scoring every week, they have the best numbers in the division in pretty much every category. Everyone's very impressed.
But let's not let the facts get in the way of a good story, I fully believe this is all smoke and mirrors of what's to come.
History tells us why
Huddersfield’s good form is undeniable. 8 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss. That definitely appears to be champions form and I'm not denying it. However, history tells us the opposite. Four teams have opened a League One season with this exact record since 2004-05. Charlton finished 4th in 2009-10. Sunderland 5th in 2018-19 and went on to lose at Wembley. Plymouth finished 7th in 2021-22. And Stevenage, somehow, finished 18th in 2012-13. EIGHTEENTH! Not one of the four were even promoted, let alone winning the league.
There's more. Ten teams have been top after 14 games with 30 points or fewer since 2004-05. None of them finished inside the top two. Every single side that led at this point and went on to win the league had at least 31 points. Not the 29 that Huddersfield currently sit at.
Ah, and the first name on that list of ten? Huddersfield Town. Finishing 4th in 2005-06, and going on to lose 3-2 on aggregate to Barnsley in the play-off semi finals.
To be frank then, being top of the league in November means naff all in this division. Just 8 teams in 22 seasons have gone on to win the league after being top on 9th November. When the lead was 3 points or fewer (i.e. what Huddersfield have now), that list shortens to 3 in 14. Just ask Stockport. Top at this point last year, still competing in League One this year. Wycombe? Top at this point the year before last, 5th in the table come the end of the season. Also still competing in League One this year.
Then there is their recent form for drop offs. Two seasons ago in 2024-25, they were 4th at the end of January. They then took 16 points from their last 20 games, lost the final 6 on the bounce and finished 10th. Last season? 4th in February and finished 9th. I'm not saying this is a pattern that has fully formed just yet, but if they do have a similar situation this year it's not the sort of habit you want to be developing.
Even their promotion season in 2011-12, they started in a similar fashion. Unbeaten in 14, 2nd in the league just a point behind top spot. But they ended up finishing 4th, going up through the play-offs.
