Right then, welcome to the new series.

Every Thursday I will be going through where I think the bookies have priced their odds wrong, or where there is money to be had. Obviously they're not going to be crazy bets, as I do still want to make some money and not just lose every week because a 10/1 didn't come in. And I'll be honest, I'm no tipster (just look at my Tipple form), but I'm gonna be putting at least a tenner on every week and we'll see how much I'm up or down come the end of the season. Follow them at your own risk...

It's international break, so there's no Prem and no Championship...what a great week to pick to start, right? Leagues One and Two it is.

Into the picks.

Welcome to the first Against the Odds. The idea is simple. Every Thursday I look at the weekend's prices, find the ones I think the bookies have got wrong, and put my own money on them. Five singles and an acca. The running total goes at the bottom every week, win or lose, and today it starts at nothing.

It's a bad week to launch a betting blog, to be fair. It's an international break, so the Prem and the Championship are off, and half of League One has been called off because every club suddenly has three lads away with their countries. So this week it's nearly all League Two, which suits me. League Two is where a team's home form and away form can look like two different clubs, and the prices don't always keep up.

Swindon to beat Grimsby, at 11/5

Let's start with the one I'm not the biggest fan of shall we? I've spent 17 years loathing Swindon. I remember from a young age staying up to watch the Football League show, often without knowing much other than Oxford's score, and watching them in those shitty red shirts just praying for them to lose. But, times change, and now being old enough to gamble, I can at least try and put some hoodoo on them, or win myself some money and take away a bit of the misery of seeing them win. So this weekend I've got money on them as my first pick.

Grimsby are favourites to win this at around evens, and I understand why. They've won their last two in the league, 4-1 at Gillingham and 5-2 against York, and they look like they may have turned a corner from the red that plagued their form in the weeks beforehand. But if we look a bit deeper, that win at Gills is the only time they've taken 3 points away from home all season. One from seven. Swindon meanwhile, are a different side at the County Ground it seems: four wins, two draws and just the one defeat. They too, have turned a corner, unbeaten in their last four in the league, with two wins and two draws.

Then we look at the week Grimsby have had. On Sunday, they went to Stafford Rangers, who play in the EIGHTH tier, went behind twice, drew 3-3 and scraped through on penalties. On Tuesday, they were at home to Nottingham Forest's under-21s in the EFL Trophy and were 3-0 down by half-time. That's how it finished. I know I know, they probably fielded lesser teams because they were cup competitions, but habits are habits, and they flow through the team no matter who is playing.