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Bolton Wanderers Vs Preston North End (Sat 15th Aug, 12:30PM UK - Sky Sports)
Here. We. Go
The EFL season kicks off with a bang this weekend, and with that comes our first Big Bet of the campaign! With an extra 5 points on the line, getting these picks right early can be crucial to building yourself a solid lead in your leagues that carries you to victory come May. But with the games always being closely-matched, how do you choose which side to fall on?
That’s where I come in. Every week I’ll be putting together a preview of the weekend’s Big Bet fixture that will hopefully provide a bit of context and clarity to help you make the right choice and give you an edge over your friends and fellow fans. Or you could just play it safe and avoid the Big Bet altogether, but where's the fun in that?
To open the season, we’ve got the return of a local derby in Lancashire that hasn’t seen a competitive fixture in over 7 years, as freshly-promoted Bolton Wanderers play host to their neighbours Preston North End in Saturday’s early kick-off. This weekend’s game is set to be the 147th fixture between the clubs, with these two founding members of the Football League boasting a rich history that stretches all the way back to an FA Cup match in 1885. 141 years later, the rivalry is as fierce as ever. Can Preston give Bolton a bloody nose on their return to the second tier? Or will Schumacher’s side announce their comeback tour with a statement victory over one of the Championship’s regulars? It’s time to set the tone for the rest of the season in this week’s Big Bet!
These early weeks are always tricky to predict. I’ve seen teams have storming pre-seasons and then fail to hit those levels when it counts, and equally I’ve seen teams limp through some torrid friendly results but be able to turn it on when the games become competitive. You could always try and go on the form at the back end of last season, but each of these squads has seen substantial movements in and out that mean they’re basically not even the same teams anymore, plus Bolton are in an entirely different division.
Steven Schumacher has a proven track record of getting teams up and out of League One playing attractive, front-foot football, but his performance at Championship level has been middling at best. He had his Plymouth side up in 13th before he made the ill-fated move to Stoke that culminated in him dropping back down to the third tier to rebuild his reputation with Bolton. Managers beware, Stoke is never the answer. He got Bolton back up into the second tier in his first full season at the helm, ending their 7-year absence from the division with a storming 4-1 Wembley victory over Stockport. That’s how you do it. His task now is to prove the doubters wrong and show both himself to be a solid Championship manager, and his Bolton squad to be capable of survival. At second-favourites for relegation, the betting public have decided that the task is simply insurmountable for the Trotters.
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His opposite number in the Preston dugout is still Paul Heckingbottom, who is entering his third season as the Lilywhites’ gaffer despite his best attempts at getting himself sacked by bemoaning their recruitment strategy throughout the back end of last season. You know what you get with Hecky, and he’s about as reliable as it gets at this level, but a solid manager can only get you so far if the players at his disposal aren’t up to scratch. Ben Whiteman will be a huge miss and, while the big-money signing of Alfie Devine is exciting on paper, the rest of the loan players around him that made him so effective, namely Lewis Dobbin and Daniel Jebbison, haven’t been adequately replaced for Devine to thrive. Jusef Arabi is an unknown quantity coming in on loan from Genk, but 1 goal in 22 outings last season doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the centre forward, even if he did score on his Carabao Cup debut last weekend. Their Dobbin replacement seems to be Delano Burgzorg, and underwhelming doesn’t even cut it. The winger contributed 3 goals and 3 assists across 43 games for both Middlesbrough and Bristol City last campaign, and neither club wanted anything to do with him this year. They do say you should sign players that are proven in the Championship, but I don’t think they mean players that are proven to be not good enough.
Despite spending so many years apart, these two near-neighbours have wound up in semi-similar positions. Both have a well-respected and dependable manager in charge and a squad with a few bright sparks of talent, but neither have had the transfer window they’d have hoped for to really bring a buzz around the club going into the new campaign. The pundits expect a difficult year for Bolton and Preston, and they might just be right. If either side are going to begin to prove them wrong, an emphatic opening-day win would be the perfect start.
Form
As stated earlier, there isn’t much to go off of here with it being gameweek one. The Carabao Cup games last weekend played out like glorified pre-season friendlies, but they at least gave us a hint as to how prepared these sides are for the true curtain-raiser this coming Saturday.
Bolton lost 1-0 to League One opposition in Sheffield Wednesday, and had midfielder Xavier Simons sent off for punching a child. So, you know, that could’ve gone better. Wanderers just didn’t really turn up at Hillsborough against an excitable, young Sheffield Wednesday side that were eager to usher in their new era with a win. The game meant so much more to their hosts than it did to Bolton, but they’ll still be disappointed with the manner of the defeat. Outside of that game, Bolton had had a pretty solid pre-season. They held Everton to a draw and saw off Dutch side NAC Breda and Oldham with impressive enough performances to spark some survival hope in the fanbase.
Preston, on the other hand, had a dreadful run of friendlies leading into last weekend’s Carabao Cup action. They beat seventh/tier Bamber Bridge before losing their remaining four warm up games to Sheffield Wednesday, Cambridge, Bradford, and Stockport, all of League One. Safe to say, vibes were low in the PNE camp. That being said, they did manage to defeat Huddersfield 4-3 on penalties in the cup despite being down to 10 men for over 70 minutes after captain Lewis Gibson saw red for a last-man pull of the shirt, so maybe they’re finally able to put it together when it (sort of) matters.
Awful pre-season, win in the cup. Solid pre-season, loss in the cup. Following the form leaves your choice to a flip of the coin, which way will it land?
Head-to-head
This might be a difficult read for those of a Bolton persuasion, but streaks are there to be broken.
Preston haven’t lost to Bolton in the Championship in their history, with Wanderers’ last win in this fixture coming all the way back in May of 2001 in what was then the First Division. Of course, as I’m sure both sets of fans will be aware, that was a 3-0 victory in the play-off final. I’m fairly certain Bolton fans would’ve taken that result pre-match if you’d told them they wouldn’t beat PNE in their next six attempts. Those six games came in the 15/16, 17/18, and 18/19 seasons, with Preston winning all three away games and the three matches at Deepdale ending in a draw.
With just 6 meetings in 25 years, and nothing for the last 7, it’s about time these two old rivals got to grips with each other once more. Can Bolton end a quarter-century long run without besting their rivals? Or will Preston continue to march down their play-off final revenge war path?
Key Matchup
Josh Sheehan vs Alfie Devine
Josh Sheehan has been nothing short of fantastic for Bolton over the last few seasons in League One, and has cemented himself as a key figure in their midfield that battled so hard year on end to finally achieve promotion back to the Championship. But, at 31, this will be his first foray into football at this level, and huge question marks remain as to if he will handle the step up. Normally, if a player is playing as well as he was on a consistent basis in League One without his side being promoted, a Championship team would snap him up without a second thought, so why has nobody taken a chance on Sheehan in all these years?
He’s a fantastic player in a dominant, high-possession outfit, thriving on seeing as much of the ball as possible and distributing it to his teammates at high volumes with pinpoint accuracy. He very rarely cedes possession, but his weakness lies in the fact that he also doesn’t often win it back on his own either. Championship sides have turned their noses up at Sheehan as a luxury item. A metronomic footballer that can dictate a game on his own, but just isn’t physically at the level necessary to compete with Championship midfielders. There’s only one way to prove them wrong, and coming out on top in a battle with Preston star-boy Alfie Devine would be a fine way to start.
Devine ended his long-standing association with Spurs this summer, taking the leap of faith to make his move to Preston permanent after enjoying a highly-successful loan spell at Deepdale. He scored 8 and assisted 6 while, crucially, playing a near-full compliment of 45 Championship games as one of the main men at the heart of all things good for Preston. The sheer volume of football at this level has accelerated his development massively, and we’re now seeing a version of Alfie Devine that can devastate Championship defences of his own accord. He doesn’t muck in with the defensive work too often, but he doesn’t have to. Devine takes more shots and creates more chances than nearly any other midfielder at this level, and you can’t put a price on that. (You can, apparently, and it’s £6m). Simply put, if you buy enough tickets then you’re going to win the raffle. Devine guarantees goals, either through his relentless shot-taking or his ability to carve out an opportunity for a colleague. It will take a Herculean effort to keep him quiet in any game this season, even if Preston as a side aren’t performing to their best.
Preview
Bolton and Preston both boast quality managers at this level but, looking through the list of teams in this league, so does everyone else. Having a good manager at the helm is no longer an advantage in the Championship, it’s a barrier for entry. Every coach in the division is tactically astute, experienced, and able to motivate their team to beat anyone else on their day. If either, or both, of these teams are going to stay up, they need to beat the teams expected to be around them.
That starts this weekend, and there’s no room for error. There’s every chance we could be looking back at this result in 46 games time with just a point or two splitting these clubs either side of dreaded red line. Or you never know, it could be the start of an unexpected surge up the table for the winner and we could see yet another odds-defying promotion winner. Yes, I had Hull City to be relegated last year.
It’s set to be a close-run contest, and with little-to-no form to consider, it’s one of the hardest Big Bets I’ve ever had to call. In the end, I’ve had to go on vibes and instinct alone in this pick. Bolton are riding the high of a long-awaited promotion, and I don’t see them losing at home to a close rival on their first game back. Particularly with how down-and-out all the coverage around Preston has been lately. It’ll be tight, but I’m going for a Bolton win in this one.
Let me know who you’ve gone for! Will the new boys start their first year back with a win? Or will the experience of PNE win out? Maybe you’ve even gone extra bold and picked a draw to open the season. I could never be so brave.
We’re back for our biggest season yet, who will take home the spoils in this year’s opening weekend Big Bet?
Exeter 12:30 Cheltenham
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